1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Ag Outlook for 2017 & Beyond
Summerfest
Ames, Iowa
July 19, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Change in Real GDP
Source: Federal Reserve

3. Unemployment Rate
Source: Federal Reserve

4. Inflation
Source: Federal Reserve

5. Interest Rates
Source: Federal Reserve

6. Interest Rate Projections
Source: Federal Reserve

7. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
168.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
14,540
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,701
Imports
160 36 32 60 40
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,392
16,281
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,200
5,500
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,225
5,275
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,367
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,900
2,050
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,692
14,200
Ending Stocks
2,081
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
3.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
46.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,929
3,880
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
350
Imports 41 72 33 25 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,145
4,260
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,890
1,925
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
109
125
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,795
1,920
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,794
3,970
Ending Stocks
290
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
9.05
9.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Iowa Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

14. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

15. Renewable Fuels Standard
Source: EPA

16. Current Corn Futures
3.65
3.42
Source: CME Group, 7/18/2016

17. Current Soybean Futures
10.09
9.19
Source: CME Group, 7/18/2016

18. Corn Use for the Next 10 Years
Source: USDA-ERS

19. Soybean Use for the Next 10 Years
Source: USDA-ERS

20. Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

21. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

22. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

23. Arable Land

24. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 24 24

25. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: