1. Risked Probabilistic Assessment Results
Alpha Prospect – Main Compartment - Risked
1.0
100
0.8
Gas Only
61 % COS
Gas Cap & Oil Leg
0.6
51 % Chance of
Finding More
Than the
Economic
Minimum
0.4
Economic Minimum
Oil Only
0.2
Slide 35
What we would show our management is a chart like this.
It is an excedance plot like before, with one big difference
The maximum on the Y-axis is not 1.0; instead it is 0.61
This is the COS that we showed on the previous slide
That tells the boss that there is a 39% chance that the HC system is not working
Also note the chance of having the economic minimum is a 50% - unrisked it was 75%
The optimist would point out that there is about a 5% chance of finding 400 MOEB!
Given the quality of this prospect and its chance to make a profit compared to the other opportunities our company has, a manager will decide whether or not to add Alpha to the “To Be Drilled” list.
If Alpha is drilled and finds enough oil and gas to be economic, then we might work up the Beta prospect as a possible additional satellite development.
0.0
100
200
300
400
500
Million Oil Equivalent Barrels
72% Chance to find any hydrocarbons
58% Chance to find 100 MBOE
5% Chance to find 400 MBOE
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
L14 – Prospect Analysis