1. Hotel Magyar Kiraly, Székesfehérvár, Hungary
Return and circular migration: recent experience in the EU Andy Fuller, Alphametrics
EURES Working Party
Hotel Magyar Kiraly, Székesfehérvár, Hungary
23 May 2011
Introduction to the Workshop
heard political position from the Commission
Now want to give a background in terms of
why we are interested in mobility – concepts and EU policy and some of the challenges that we face
overview of the labour market situation of the main groups of socially excluded or disadvantaged people across Europe

2. Objectives of analysis
To examine:
scale of migration flows from Central and Eastern European countries (EU12) to EU15
the extent of return migration in response to recession in EU15 countries
characteristics of people concerned – particularly age, sex and education levels
To consider policies implemented in both EU15 and EU12 in response to return migration – done largely through case studies of Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia

3. Points to keep in mind
Migration determined by push as well as pull factors
Pull factors strong – average earnings in Latvia or Lithuania around one fifth of those in more prosperous EU15 countries. In Romania, around one seventh, Bulgaria, even lower
Implication – can earn as much from working two months in EU15 as one year in EU12
But jobs need to be available and prospective gains need to outweigh costs
Costs not just financial but also social– alien culture, different language, isolation from family and friends, loss of support
Push factors in home country also important – shortage of jobs, poor living conditions, deprivation

4. Nature of migration flows
Evidence that much of migration is short-term and that return migration has always been significant
Evidence also that many of those that return go back to EU15 after a while – i.e. much migration is circular, people moving backwards and forwards on regular basis
This particularly the case for seasonal workers in agriculture, tourism and other activities where work concentrated at particular times of year, especially Summer
Circular migration most important between countries that are relatively close:
from Hungary or Slovakia to Austria or Germany
from Romania or Bulgaria to Greece or Italy

5. Gains from circular migration
Circular migration potentially of mutual benefit to all involved:
migrants and their families gain from having work and higher income
destination country can gain from labour or skill shortages being reduced – and from work migrants might create
home country can gain from income remittances – significant in Bulgaria, Romania and Latvia - but also from skills and know-how migrants bring back with them
In practice, much of circular migration involves relatively basic seasonal work – agriculture, tourism
But those travelling further take up higher level jobs – in UK or Ireland relative to Austria or Germany

6. Data issues
Acute problems in identifying scale of migration, even more so for return or circular – no EU-wide data, only irregular surveys
Recent Eurostat data on flows within EU and from outside - but for most countries only and many countries not covered in any detail (Germany, France and UK)
Data used for analysis come mainly from EU Labour Force Survey
Advantages:
data available for run of years and up-to-date
cover characteristics of people – education level, work status as well as sex and age
Disadvantages:
can only identify net migration, not inward and outward separately
data based on relatively small sample – analysis restricted to main EU15 countries where migration from EU12 important, but no data for German

7. Characteristics of migrants
Most migrants relatively young – mostly aged 15-34, around 80% aged 15-49
Migration flows from Romania and Bulgaria predominantly to southern EU15 countries – to Italy, Greece and Spain especially
Migration flows from other EU12 countries mostly to Germany and Austria before 2004 and to UK, Ireland and Sweden after entry to EU in 2004 – the 3 countries not imposing restrictions
Large majority of those going to UK, Ireland and Sweden were from Poland and Baltic States - around 80%, two-thirds from Poland
Even balance between men and women migrating, but not to all countries – women make up over 60% of Romanians going to Italy and majority of those going to Spain
In UK, Ireland and Sweden, men in significant majority

8. Migration trends over past decade
Big increase in migration from Central+ Eastern Europe (EU12) to EU15
Migrants from EU12 aged living in UK doubled from 2003 to 2005 and had risen by over 3 times by 2008 – peak migration in 2006
Also increase of over 3 times in migrants from EU12 living in Ireland
Much smaller increase in Sweden as well as in Austria (and Germany), where numbers already high pre EU enlargement in 2004
Romanians and Bulgarians living in Italy doubled
Those living in Spain increased by 3 times
Much smaller increase in Greece – perhaps reflecting lower income levels – and lower earnings possibilities

9. Education and skills levels of migrants
Migrants from EU10 mainly have upper secondary education (i.e. vocational qualifications) – add to stock of skilled workers in EU15
Longer-term migrants tend to have higher education levels than shorter-term ones. More women have tertiary education than men
Migrants from Romania and Bulgaria have tended to be disproportionately the lower educated, reflecting preponderance of seasonal workers
But still more of them have upper secondary qualifications than those in main destination countries – Italy, Spain, Greece
EU10 migrants going to Ireland tended to be higher educated than those going to UK, more with university degrees, fewer with only basic schooling – may reflect jobs they do

10. Effect on labour force in host country
Migration has not only increased available workers with vocational qualifications
Without inward migration, working-age population would have declined in in 8 EU15 countries – even in Ireland
Migrants from EU12 countries made significant contribution to growth of working-age population (i.e. potential work force)
But in all countries except Ireland not the main source of growth – migration from outside EU more important ….

11. Migrant contribution to potential labour force

12. Effect of inward migration on employment
Before EU enlargement, fear that migrants would take jobs from nationals – little sign of this
In most countries, employment rates of nationals have risen as inward migration has taken place ….

13. Employment rates by country of birth

14. And some early signs of effect of recession

15. Effect of recession on migration
Outflows of migrants from EU15 back to EU10 increased markedly in 2009 as recession hit – especially among under 25s
Less sign of Romanians and Bulgarians returning from southern EU
In UK, return migration to EU10 exceeded inward flows for first time – more people leaving fewer coming, deterred by lack of jobs
In Ireland, migrants living in country declined by around 15% in 2009
Migration from Romania and Bulgaria seems to have continued
In Italy, little sign if any easing of growth – increase of 30% in migrants living there in 2009
In Greece, number increased by around 25%
In Spain, little change, though decline in those under 25
Implication – effect of recession was to increase under 25s in EU12 looking for work

16. Characteristics of returnees
Evidence suggests return migration particularly high among those with vocational qualifications – i.e. among skilled manual workers
Especially so in UK, Ireland and Sweden, though also in Spain – consistent with concentration of job losses in manufacturing and construction
Evidence also that in most countries, recession hit migrants more than nationals – true of all countries apart from Sweden and UK, and especially so in Ireland and Spain …

17. Employment rates of national and migrants in recession

18. Employment rates of national and migrants in recession
Possible explanation for UK + SE:
Migrants without jobs left,
so pushing up employment rate of those that remained

19. Chances of returnees finding work
Those returning much less likely to be employed in 2009 than non-migrants (those who remained in country)
Unemployment rates among returnees generally far higher
And/or a larger number among inactive wanting to work ….

20. Employment status of non-migrants + returnees (resident in EU15 previous year)

21. Situation of Romanians in Spain and Italy
Recession reduced net flow of Romanian migrants to Spain but much less so to Italy, numbers rose significantly in 2009
Recession hit migrants in particular, largely because of kinds jobs they do – construction, manufacturing, tourism
Migration between Italy and Romania increasingly circular – no evidence that recession has led to increase in permanent return
Adverse economic circumstances in Romania lead to many migrants who return going back to where they returned from
In Spain, most migrants prefer to remain in host country where they have access to unemployment benefits if they lose their job
Value of unemployment benefit higher than minimum wage in Romania

22. Government policies towards migrants in Spain and Italy
In Spain, entitlement to unemployment benefit accompanied by access to free health care
Spanish Government organised access to database on vacancies in Romania – informing migrants of job possibilities should they decide to return home
But no financial inducement (unlike for those from outside EU) and measures taken in 2009 to restrict entry of family members
In Italy, little Government attempt to assist migrants – access to income support limited, but also applies to non-migrants
Quotas imposed on migrant workers in sensitive sectors – in manufacturing but not domestic service or healthcare
Many migrants becoming self-employed and starting up businesses in response to lack of jobs – rise from 28,000 to 48,000 in Romanian-owned firms in 2010.

23. Situation in Poland and Slovakia
In both countries, marked reduction in outflows during recession
In Poland, returnees predominantly those with vocational education
Migrants mostly return to places they left, largely to rural areas and small towns rather than big cities - greater chance of maintaining themselves in subsistence farming
Returnees can claim unemployment benefits from countries where they worked – though admin problems in doing so
In Poland, Govt. policy of attracting back migrants and providing support, especially at local level – policy targeted at professionals especially
In Slovakia, number of migrants rising again despite recovery – but more to Nordic countries than UK or Ireland – higher wages + easier access to benefits.