1. Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2
Task Force on GDP Flash estimates at t+30 days
Item 5 On GDP t+30 Eurostat estimations
6th Meeting of the TF, Luxembourg 7 October, 2015
Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2

2. Content
Data work: only on-line estimates to be done … and a little reminder what was done since Jan 15
Results: test estimations, real-time quarters (update)
Overview of back and real-time quarters (t+30 vs. t+45)
Results with later revisions: t+30 and the consecutive publications, QoQ: EA, EU; YoY: EA, EU
Results: comparison with the quality criteria
TF T+30, October 2015

3. 1. Data work to be done only on-line estimates …Nr
What
When
Who 1
Test calculations – ‘real time’ provision of national data every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards
– transmit your estimates in future in the growth rate triangle (with last quarter updated)
End-Oct 2015, End-Jan 2016, etc.
2015Q3 onwards
Most TF Members
TF Members (ESTAT updates as well) 2
Production of the EU and EA GDP test flash estimates, every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards
End-Oct 2015, End-Jan 2016, etc…?
ESTAT, CE

4. 1. … Data work done Nr What When Who
Test calculations – provision of national back data 2012Q1-2013Q4
December  February 2014
Most TF members
Test estimates for EA/EU, back data 2012Q1 – 2013Q4
Spring 2015 – Summer 2015
ESTAT, CE
Update of growth rate triangles for revision analyses – ,
TF Members, ESTAT
Revision analysis on the test estimates – ,
Spring 2015 – Autumn 2015
ESTAT …
Calculation of data indicators and other analyses for Quality criteria (e.g. unbiasness of t+30?)
Summer 2015 – Autumn 2015

5. 2. Results test estimates (real-time quarters)…
Here on the left, as previously, you can see the country data used in the estimations
In the column T+30 test you can see the t+30 days' estimates
And in the column T+45 Flash the t+45 estimate for comparison

6. …2. Results test estimates (real-time quarters)

7. 3. Overview, back and real-time, EA (t+30 vs. t+45)
TF T+30, October 2015

8. … 3. Overview, back and real-time, EA (t+30 vs. t+45)
TF T+30, October 2015

9. 4. Results QoQ, EA …

10. … 4. Results QoQ, EU

11. 4. Results YoY, EA …

12. … 4. Results YoY, EU

13. 5. Comparison of results (so far) with quality criteria
Average revision between and +0.05, Now: EU -0.01, EA no more than 67% of revisions at publication level in same direction Now: EU 0: 57%, -: 29%, +: 14% EA 0: 29%, -: 36%, +: 36%
T+30 average absolute revision ≤0.10 (to t+45) EU 0.05, EA 0.06 and ≤ 0.13 (to t+65) EU 0.05, EA 0.06
For 2015 coverage national estimates > 70%
Six last quarter average: EU 80%, EA 80%
(4) Communication plan should be available …. on its way….)

14. Thank you for your attention !
MANY THANKS FOR THE WORK DONE FOR YOUR COUNTRY ESTIMATES !
Please feel free to comment …
TF T+30, October 2015