1. NS4960 Spring Term 2017 IEA Energy Security Index

2. Overview I Ensuring energy security central to the mission of the IEA
Founded in response to oil crisis of IEA initially focused on oil supply security
While oil security an important concern, contemporary energy security policies must address a broader range of risks
Threats to energy security come from a variety of
Natural
Economic, and
Political factors
All affect energy sources and infrastructure

3. MOSES I
IEA has developed a Model of Short-Term Energy Security (MOSES) as a tool to evaluate short term security of energy supply
MOSES is based on a set of quantitative indicators that measure two aspects of energy security
Risks of energy disruptions, and
Resilience, or the ability of a national energy system to cope with disruptions
It does not rank countries on the basis of their energy security
Instead it identifies “energy security profiles” of individual countries based on their risks and resilience capacities

4. MOSES II MOSES can also be used to
Track the evolution of national energy security profiles over time
Analyze the effect different policies would have on a given country’s energy security and
Thus identify national energy policy priorities
MOSES takes an energy systems approach to analyzing energy security
Energy systems analysis deals with all parts of the energy system from
Energy supply to
Transformation and distribution to
End-use energy services

5. MOSES III
In its current version MOSES analyses vulnerabilities of primary energy sources and how these affect the security of secondary fuels
With its focus on fuels and energy sources MOSES lays foundation for extending analysis to security of electricity and end-use sectors

6. MOSES IV

7. MOSES V
MOSES analyses both risk and resilience connected to external factors related to imported energy as well as domestic factors related to domestic production, transformation, and distribution of energy

8. MOSES VI
These four dimensions analyzed by MOSES using approximately 30 indicators that characterize each primary energy source and secondary fuel
Evaluation of energy supply security using these indicators involves two steps:
First -- these bands of values – corresponding to low, medium and high vulnerability are established for each indicator
These bands are based on observed ranges of indicator values in the IEA countries
As well as expert judgements about risks and resilience capacities

9. MOSES VII Second – a energy security profile is established.
To do that indicators combined in a way that takes into account
How particular risks may exacerbate each other and
How particular resilience capacities may mitigate specific risks

10. MOSES VIII

11. MOSES IX

12. MOSES X

13. Short Term Energy Security I
Following charts/tables describe the vulnerabilities related to a different primary energy source or secondary fuel
Energy security profiles are marked by letters A to E, generally moving from
lower risks/higher reliance profiles (higher energy security) to
higher risk/lower resilience profiles (lower energy security

14. Short Term Energy Security II

15. Short Term Energy Security III

16. Short Term Energy Security IV

17. Short Term Energy Security V

18. Short Term Energy Security VI

19. Short Term Energy Security VII

20. Short Term Energy Security VIII

21. Short Term Energy Security IX

22. Short Term Energy Security X

23. Short Term Energy Security XI

24. Short Term Energy Security XII

25. Short Term Energy Security XIII

26. Short Term Energy Security XIX

27. Short Term Energy Security XX

28. Short Term Energy Security XXI