1. How NEEA Estimates Energy Savings from Market Transformation
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
June 2018
How NEEA Estimates Energy Savings from Market Transformation
Innovation to Action

2. Energy Savings in NEEA’s work
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Energy Savings in NEEA’s work
The energy savings that NEEA reports reflect results from the alliance’s investment in Market Transformation
Energy savings is one metric for Market Transformation work
NEEA estimates and reports energy savings for the purposes of:
Assessing the long term potential of the regional investment
Setting and tracking to NEEA business plan (5-10 year) and annual operations plan (1 year) targets
Supporting annual funder regulatory reporting obligations
NEEA tracks market progress over time and estimates the resulting energy savings across this time horizon (both during and after market intervention).
Innovation to Action

3. Market Transformation Defined
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Market Transformation Defined
“The strategic process of intervening in a market to create lasting change in market behavior by removing identified barriers and/or exploiting opportunities to accelerate the adoption of all cost-effective energy efficiency as a matter of standard practice.”
Innovation to Action

4. Market Transformation Energy Savings: Key Concepts
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Market Transformation Energy Savings: Key Concepts
Market Transformation results in energy savings
Market transformation is a long-term enterprise
Market adoption is subject to market forces that are influence-able but not necessarily control-able
Predicting market adoption rates is highly uncertain
The bulk of the savings occur after active market intervention is completed
The only thing that can actually be measured is total market adoption – everything else is a construct
Innovation to Action

5. Energy Savings Calculation Components
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Energy Savings Calculation Components -
Unit Energy Savings (UES)
Market Units
Retirements (Measure Life)
Data Sources:
Regional Technical Forum
Independent lab tests and evaluation reports
Market relationships with manufacturers, distributors and/or retailers
Regional Technical Forum
Independent lab tests and evaluation reports
Innovation to Action

6. Market Transformation Energy Savings: Role of Evaluation
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Market Transformation Energy Savings: Role of Evaluation
Market progress is evaluated annually for each program via an independent, third party review
A key activity of this evaluation work is a review of the key assumptions used in estimating savings
Sources of key assumptions used in savings reporting:
Power Council
Regional Technical Forum
Estimates by independent studies that are then reviewed by a third party
NEEA engages in an annual review with Cost Effectiveness and Evaluation Advisory Committee and the Power Council
Innovation to Action

7. Market Transformation Energy Savings: Previous and Current Investments
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Market Transformation Energy Savings: Previous and Current Investments
Market Transformation savings occur and are tracked over a time horizon that extends beyond the intervention investment period
NEEA will track and report energy savings for all investments, prior or current, for which the market is still demonstrating increased adoption and resulting incremental energy savings in the region
The savings accounting for current and prior investment initiatives is the same
The estimated savings in a given year include savings from both past and current initiatives; they are first year savings from new installations
Innovation to Action

8. Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Market Transformation Energy Savings Counting and Reporting: Foundational Tenets
Savings are an estimate
Estimated energy savings are incremental, first year savings, at the end-customer meter
NEEA engages with multiple parties to fulfill the review and/or audit function of key assumptions
NEEA does not attempt to attribute cause and effect
Baseline matters
NEEA makes every effort to avoid double counting
This slide has animation
Innovation to Action

9. Two Baseline Approaches used in Estimating and Reporting Savings
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Two Baseline Approaches used in Estimating and Reporting Savings
MARKET TRANSFORMATION Market Baseline
POWER PLAN Power Plan Baseline
Freezes the baseline by actualizing the market performance every 5-6 years
Used for power planning purposes
Forecasts a continuous view of the market without intervention
Used to track full effects of change over time
Innovation to Action

10. The Savings Categories are Different
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
The Savings Categories are Different
MARKET TRANSFORMATION
POWER PLAN
Power Plan Baseline
Total Power Plan Regional Savings
Remaining Savings
Market Baseline
Total Regional Savings
Co-Created Savings
Net Market Effects
Innovation to Action

11. Differing baseline views
Market Baseline
Total Regional Savings
Power Plan Baseline
Market Share
Early Adopters
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
Time
Innovation to Action

12. Market Transformation Approach
TOTAL MARKET ADOPTION
TOTAL REGIONAL SAVINGS
Net Market Effects
Co-Created Savings
Local Programs
Market Baseline
MARKET SHARE
This slide has animation
CURRENT MARKET SHARE
20+ years
5 years
10 years
15 years
Innovation to Action

13. Power Plan Approach MARKET SHARE Total EE Savings Remaining Savings
TOTAL MARKET ADOPTION
Remaining Savings
Total EE Savings
Local Programs
MARKET SHARE
POWER PLAN BASELINE
This slide has animation
20+ years
6 years
12 years
18 years
Innovation to Action

14. Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Questions?
Is there anything disconnected between the savings 101 slides and this presentation of savings results for the region?
Innovation to Action