1. Course of Action Analysis
Multinational Planning Augmentation Team
(MPAT)
Course of Action Analysis
Purpose
References
Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process
Discuss the associated task steps
Identify the products resulting from COA analysis
Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations
JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 10 Sep 01
JP , Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999
CJCSM , JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97
This module will cover course of action analysis. During this module we will:
define course of action analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process,
discuss the task steps,
identify Course of Action, or COA analysis products,
and provide lessons learned.
Shown here are the key references used to prepare this module.

2. Crisis Action Planning Process
Situation
Development II
Crisis
Assessment
III
Course of
Action
Development IV
Course of
Action
Selection V
Execution
Planning
OPORD
&
Deployment
Data Base VI
Execution
And/or
Warning
Order
Planning
Order
Alert
Order
Execute
Order I
Mission Analysis II
Course of Action
Development
III
Analysis of
Courses of Action IV
Comparison of Own
Courses of Action
Course of action analysis is the third step in the commander’s estimate process. V
Commander’s
Decision
Commander’s Estimate Process
Key Planning Concepts:
Supported Strategic Commander’s (higher headquarters) strategic intent and operational
(MNF) focus
Orientation on the strategic and operational centers of gravity of the threat
Protection of friendly strategic and operational centers of gravity
Phasing of operations

3. Courses of Action Analysis “ Gaming the COAs ”
The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each proposed friendly COA as though executed against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander considered the most significant and influential aspects of the situation.
The purpose of COA analysis is to evaluate each proposed COA against the most likely or probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA.
COA analysis serves to identify advantages and disadvantages of each proposed COA.
The end product of our COA analysis is a comprehensive list of the advantages and disadvantages of each COA, and a synchronization matrix for each COA that identifies tasks and force requirements.

4. Analysis of COAs: Key Points
Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation
Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:
By time phasing
Geographic location
Functional event
Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down
This slide and the next one present some key points to keep in mind when conducting course of action analysis.
Remember, we are determining the effectiveness of our friendly COAs against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA.
Successful COA analysis requires a consistent, methodical approach. Conduct the analysis in an orderly fashion, by utilizing the listed techniques.

5. Analysis of COAs: Key Points (cont’d)
Consider crisis termination issues: think through own action, enemy reaction/ threat consequences of our action, and counteraction
Conclude with:
Revalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitability
Determine additional requirements
Make modifications
List advantages and disadvantages of each COA
It is critical to consider termination issues, and to think through each action, enemy reaction or threat consequences of our action and counteraction.
Finally, our analysis should enable us to revalidate feasibility, acceptability, and suitability of each course of action,
determine additional requirements,
make modifications,
and list clearly the advantages and disadvantages of each course of action.
During COA analysis, or wargaming, our task is not to compare the courses of action against each other. Our task is to analyze our COAs against the various threats we may face.

6. Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
1.These are the course of action analysis task steps. We will discuss each one of these.
2. Gather the tools, material and data.
3. List the assumptions.
4. List known critical events and decision points.
5. Select the method of wargame analysis.
6. Select the technique to record and display wargame results.
7. Wargame the operation and assess the results.
8. Conduct a risk assessment.
9. Revalidate the courses of action for suitability, acceptability, and feasibility.
Analyze
& Assess
Risk
Assessment
Course of Action Analysis
Revalidate

7. Gather the Tools Course of Action Analysis Friendly COAs
The most probable & most dangerous enemy or threat COAs
Combined operations area reference
Representation of friendly force distribution and probable threats
Representation of environmental/civil conditions
Synchronization Matrix
Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-Counteraction matrix
Identify, list, and review existing limitations
List
Assumptions
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
First, we need to gather the tools. Identify the friendly COAs that we intend to analyze, to include COA statement and sketch.
Identify the probable threats against which the friendly COAs are to be analyzed in order of priority. In crisis action planning we will probably wargame against the most likely threat.
Obtain a representation of the operational area, such as maps and overlays, digital displays, representations of airspace, sea surface and subsurface areas, littoral areas, etc.
Depict friendly force dispositions and capabilities and probable threats. Consider all assigned, OPCON, TACON and supporting forces and assets that are available for direct employment or in support of the operation.
Show the environmental and civil conditions which exist and that impact on the military operation.
Develop the synchronization matrix and action-reaction/consequence-counteraction matrix for the analyze and assess task step.
Finally, identify, list and review the existing and inherent support relationships and limitations –or constraints and restraints- imposed by higher headquarters.
Analyze
& Assess
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

8. List Assumptions List the assumptions made during mission analysis
Validity:
Is the assumption necessary to continue planning?
Will the result change without the assumption?
Logical?
Realistic?
Gather the
Tools
List
Assumptions
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
Analyze
& Assess
1. The next step is to list assumptions.
2. We need to reevaluate our initial assumptions to ensure they’re still valid. We have to answer the questions on this slide.
3. Is this assumption necessary to continue planning?.
4. Would the results of the wargame be dramatically altered if we didn’t make this assumption?
5. If the answer are “no” the assumption is not necessary.
6. Other assumptions may have been developed during previous stages of the planning process. Be sure to include these in the analysis.
7. Assumptions must also be logical and realistic.
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

9. Example: Planning Assumptions Coalition Task Force (CTF- Bayanihan)
Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs)
Aerial ports of debarkation (APODs) and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational
TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours
Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission
No other contingencies for CTF/MNF for duration of mission
Host nation will be the MNF lead nation (Philippines)
1. Each staff section will probably have to develop assumptions focused on their functional areas
2. Here are some examples of assumptions, based on a ficticious CTF HA/DR operation in the Philippines.
3. Please note one important point: Assumptions made in planning must be revalidated or invalidated prior to execution. Therefore, they must be continuously monitored until they are proven to be facts or are overcome by events and are no longer relevant.

10. List Known Critical Events and Decision Points
Gather the
Tools
List
Assumptions
Critical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis
Decision points identify decisions the commander must make to ensure timely execution and synchronization
Time available for analysis affects length of the critical events list
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
Analyze
& Assess
1. The third step is to list the known critical events and decision points.
2. Critical events are defined as those essential specified or implied tasks, the completion of which is required for mission accomplishment and which, in the judgment of the wargamer, require detailed analysis.
3. Decision points identify in (time and space) decisions that the commander must make to ensure timely execution of our plan to achieve the desired effects of the operation.
4. Critical events and decision points can often be anticipated before analysis, during early steps of course of action development.
5. Note that the time available for the entire planning process, and analysis in particular, will affect the length of our critical events list.
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

11. Select Method of Analysis
Gather the
Tools
Computer Assisted
Integrated theater management model
Tactical warfare model
Joint conflict model
Manual
Deliberate timeline analysis
Operational phasing
Critical events
List
Assumptions
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
1. Next, select the method of analysis.
2. The method of wargaming depends upon time and other resources available, staff expertise, and the desired degree of resolution. Although computer assisted methods may be used, for this module we will concentrate on manual methods.
3. In the deliberate timeline analysis technique, the staff and functional area representatives methodically consider the task force actions day by day or in discrete blocks of time. This is the most thorough method of wargaming, when time allows.
4. For the operational phasing technique, the staff and functional area representatives identify significant actions and requirements for functional areas and components, by each phase of the operation.
5. In the critical events technique, the key staff and functional area representatives focus on specific critical events that encompass the essence of each course of action. If time is particularly limited, they may focus on the one key critical event of each COA.
6. It is important to identify a measure of effectiveness, or MOE, that attempts to quantify the achievement of each particular event. This MOE should enable consistent comparison of each COA. For example, if the key critical event of each COA is delivering relief supplies to disaster victims, one measure of effectiveness number of short tons of supplies delivered by a specific date.
Analyze
& Assess
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

12. Select Technique to Record and Display Analysis
Gather the
Tools
List
Assumptions
Techniques
Narrative technique
Sketch and note technique
Synchronization matrix
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
Considerations
Assets available
Time available
The fifth step is to determine the recording method.
Recording wargame results provides data from which to build or modify task organizations, synchronize activity through coordination, and prepare plans and orders. It provides the staff with a record of strengths and weaknesses for the comparison of course of action.
The narrative technique describes in sentence form the visualization of the operation in sequence. It provides extensive detail and clarity. It provides a large volume of information and is the more time consuming technique.
The sketch and note technique uses brief notes concerning critical locations or tasks. The notes may refer to specific locations on a map or may relate to general considerations covering broad areas. Notes may be made on maps, wargame worksheets, or on a synchronization matrix.
The synchronization matrix is also time consuming, and better left to situations where time limitations are not so great.
Essentially, the assets available in the headquarters and the time available will determine which technique we use.
Analyze
& Assess
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

13. Wargame the Operation and Assess Results
Gather the
Tools
List
Assumptions
Visualize the flow of operations
Consider CTF component capabilities two echelons down
“Action- Reaction/ Threat Consequence-Counteraction”
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
The next step, analyze and assess, is the crux of course of action analysis, and is the lengthiest step.
Wargaming is a deliberate and methodical effort to describe the MNF actions in time and space from a perspective of operational phases or critical events. The CTF commander and his staff visualize the flow of the operation, the stated friendly strengths and dispositions, probable threats, and probable COAs through the area of operations.
Carry your analysis at least two echelons down.
Attempt to capture the dynamics of the operation through a series of “action-consequence-counteraction” sequences. During this process the staff is trying to capture the key elements that collectively define the synchronization of the operation.
Key items that we are analyzing and assessing for both CTF HQs and component commands are specific tasks, task organization, command relationships, synchronization of movement and maneuver with operational firepower, decision points and intelligence requirements related to major events, and identification of operational branches and sequels.
Analyze
& Assess
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

14. Conduct the Wargame: Checklist
Identify role players, recorders, and facilitators
Review assumptions, restated mission, and phases
“Threat Cell”: Threat lay down (disposition)
CPG leader – lead the “Friendly” actions
C2 lay down and structure
Forces (by component and function)
Firepower - priority targets
Friendly Intel action
Support (C1, C4, C6, Medical, Engineering)
Interagency actions
Threat reaction to friendly actions
For each phase or movement of forces, record the decision points, critical information requirements, branches, sequels, risks, other key issues
Friendly counteraction to threat reaction
Here is a helpful checklist as you analyze or wargame each COA. Some of the items do not apply to humanitarian assistance or disaster response, or HA/DR operations, but may apply to peace operations. Identify role players, recorders, and facilitators. This is important so that the analysis is conducted properly and results are recorded.
Review the assumptions, restated mission, and phases of the operation with all participants. This will help ensure that everyone has the same information before starting.
The threat cell, usually played by a member of the C2 staff, paints, or lays down, the threat.
The senior joint planning group leader, usually the C3 or his deputy, plays the role of the friendly forces. Review the command and control structure. Review the task force structure, by component and function, and what their actions are. If firepower is relevant, as perhaps in peace enforcement, make sure targets are prioritized, and who is providing the fires.
Cover required intelligence action.
Cover each of the support functions, and their actions for each COA.
Interagency actions are critical, especially with HA/DR operations.
For HA/DR, threat reactions might be the consequences if we fail to conduct a timely relief effort. For example, if one of our COAs involves the late delivery of building material for destroyed residences, and we are entering the monsoon season, the threat might be increased illness due to exposure to weather.
For each phase, or movement of forces, record the decision points and other information as shown. This step is critical for our final analysis of each COA.
Finally, look at possible threat reactions to our actions, and wargame what our counteraction will be. The action/reaction/counteraction worksheet, which will be discussed in a subsequent slide, is a tool to help us with this step.
Course of Action Analysis

15. Synchronization Matrix
TIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT
PROBABLE THREAT
DECISION POINTS
CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER
OPN FIREPOWER
OPN PROTECTION
OPN INFORMATION
OPN INTEL
OPN SUPPORT
ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT
MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT
NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC
AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC
JSOTF
OTHERS
D-DAY/
H-HOUR
D + 1
D + 2
FUNCTION
JOINT
AREAS
One tool to record the results of our wargamming and to synchronize the course of action over a number of different parameters is a synchronization matrix. The matrix depicts the time of the event and the probable threat against which the course of action is being wargamed. It reflects the contributions of the components and the functional areas. The synchronization matrix should be adapted to the situation.
COMPONENTS

16. Simplified Sync Matrix
ACTOR
EVENT
COMMENT
EVENT
COMMENT
EVENT
COMMENT
EVENT
COMMENT
CCTF
CARFOR
CNAVFOR
CAFFOR
1. Here is an example of a simplified synchronization matrix.
2. Events can be numbered or given short names. Comments can include the following:
-- Identification as critical event
-- Possible branch ideas
-- Key weaknesses
-- Additional requirements such as forces or logistics
3. The forces shown under the Actor column are only an example. The matrix that we actually use should include any components or organizations that help define the event.
CMARFOR
CSOTF
CPOTF

17. Sample Analysis Worksheet
CRITICAL EVENT:
SEQ-
UENCE
NUMBER
ACTION
REACTION/
THREAT/
ENEMY
CONSE-
QUENCES
COUNTER-
ACTION
ASSETS
TIME
DECISION
POINT
CCIR
REMARKS
1. One way to record all pertinent data gained from the war game is the wargame worksheet. Each sheet identifies a critical event for the headquarters conducting the wargame.
2. Using the columns on the worksheet, identify and list in sequence the following:
- The tasks (actions)
- The assets (allocated forces) used
- The expected consequences
- The counteractions and the assets used
- The total assets required for the task
- And the estimated time required to accomplish the task.
3. You can also make remarks regarding the advantages and disadvantages based upon the results of the analysis.

18. Action/Reaction/Counteraction
REACTION/CONSEQUENCE
COUNTERACTION
1ST Priority is
Provide Medical
Support
Large Population
W/O Shelter
increases
sickness
Modify TPFDD/Deployment
Movement Plans to allow
CTF to provide shelter and
prioritize medical care.
1. The “action-reaction/threat consequence-counteraction” technique is an excellent tool to force us to think through each action and enemy reaction/threat consequences, and how the COA may have to be modified. It notes advantages, weaknesses of, and necessary improvements to the course of action.
2. Normally, a C3 or C5 representative identifies the initial friendly action. The staff identifies the full range of operational actions that comprise the initial action.
3. A C2 rep helps identify the enemy reaction or for HA/DR the threat consequences.
4. The staff then determines the counteraction in all areas. The counteraction can begin the sequence again as a new action, or a separate new action can begin the sequence.

19. Advantages & Disadvantages
COA 1
Advantages Disadvantages
- Rapid delivery
- Meets critical needs
Modifications 1. Assign national forces by sector
2. Lead nation provides comms w/robust LNOs
- Rough integration of forces
- Rough transition
- Complex organization
- Not flexible at all
- Adequate force protection
1. One of the critical results of this wargaming process is the listing of advantages and disadvantages of the course of action. This information will be used later in the process to compare COAs.
2. Don’t compare COAs against each other. Remember, the comparison should be against the probable threats.
3. As we look at these advantages and disadvantages we need to make modifications to the COA to minimize the disadvantages. Keep these modifications in mind as we might be able to apply these modifications to other courses of action.
4. Be careful on modifications. We do not want to modify the COAs so they all start to look alike.

20. Results of Analysis Course of Action Analysis
Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA
Identification of additional assets required (if any)
Refinements or modifications to the COA
Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each
geographic location or functional event
Adjustments to any established control measures
Our analysis-our wargaming-should generate results, as shown here and on the next two slides:
Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA
Identification of additional assets required (if any)
Refinements or modifications to the COA
Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each
Geographic location or functional event
Adjustments to any established control measures
Course of Action Analysis

21. Analysis Results (cont)
Deployment/Movement requirements
Synchronization requirements
Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole
Required support from outside of the CTF
Requirements for logistic support
Clear picture of command relationships
Branches and sequels
Here are more results that our analysis should yield:
Deployment requirements
Synchronization requirements
Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole
Required support from outside of the CTF
Requirements for logistic support
Clear picture of command relationships
Branches and sequels
Course of Action Analysis

22. Analysis Results (cont)
Critical information required to support decision points
Additional commander’s decision points
Measures of effectiveness for each phase
Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance
Identification of component tasks
Task Organization requirements
And finally,
Critical information required to support decision points
Additional commander’s decision points
Measures of effectiveness for each phase
Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance
Identification of component tasks
Task Organization requirements
This is a good checklist of information which can be obtained from a good wargame. The key point is to capture this information and make certain it gets to the right place.
Course of Action Analysis

23. Conduct Risk Assessment
Gather the
Tools
Identify risks
Assess risks
Analyze acceptability of risk
Identify ways and means of risk mitigation
List
Assumptions
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
Risk assessment allows the staff to identify to the MNF/CTF commander the areas of the operation where there is risk; that is, what is the adverse impact on the operation of a certain event, and what is the likelihood of such an event occurring.
Possible risks include the risk of failure, risk of high casualties, risk of civilian casualties, risk of damage to civilian infrastructure.
Risk assessment allows the staff to suggest alternatives or options that would lessen or mitigate against those risks that the MNF/CTF commander is unwilling to bear.
Analyze
& Assess
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

24. Revalidate Course of Action Analysis
Gather the
Tools
Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the mission when carried out successfully, In other words, is it aimed at the right objectives?
Feasible: Do we have the required resources and can those resources be made available in time?
Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish the mission and we have the required resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, time, political, etc.)?
Complete: Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT-WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?
Distinguishable: Are the COAs sufficiently different from each other?
List
Assumptions
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
Analyze
& Assess
Finally, look at whether any modification we have made, or any item which has resulted from our analysis, has changed the suitability, feasibility, acceptability, and completeness of the course of action. And, are the COAs still distinguishable from one another?
This is a final check to ensure that each COA is validated.
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

25. Lessons Learned
Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first.
Analyze the end state and transitions.
Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time constraint.
The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions.
During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.
Here are some of the lessons learned from recent exercises.
Identify key events, locations and enemy capabilities first.
Analyze the end state and transitions. This is perhaps the most often overlooked step in course of action development, yet it is an essential part of the planning process.
Don’t get caught in detailed analysis and forget time constraints. Keep to “big picture”.
Our purpose during analysis is to identify COA advantages and disadvantages, and not prescribe specific component counteractions. This is where the staff estimates will come into play. Use them to assist in analyzing our COAs.
Finally, during the analysis process, we are not comparing COAs to each other, but rather we are analyzing them against the enemy’s COA, or most probable threat.

26. Course of Action Analysis: Summary
Gather the
Tools
List
Assumptions
Evaluate each proposed friendly COA as though executed against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA
Conduct analysis in an orderly fashion
Consider crisis termination issues
Think through action-consequences-reaction
Analyze/wargame and record results
Revalidate
Critical Events
& Decision Points
Analysis
Method
Recording
Method
Analyze
& Assess
Risk
Assessment
Revalidate
Course of Action Analysis

27. Multinational Planning Augmentation Team
Course of Action Analysis
Questions?
That completes our discussion of Course of Action Analysis, do you have any questions or comments?