1. Transforming Scenario Narratives into Study Cases
Michael Bailey, P.E.
Modeling Subcommittee Meeting, June 27-28, 2018
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Focus on Reliability
WECC’s Mission
To assure the near and long-term reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

3. Reliability & Scenario Drivers
Load / End Use Patterns?
Adequacy?
Capacity?
Stability?
Operations?
Voltage Support?
Flexibility?
Constraints?
Infrastructure?
Contingencies?
Protection? Coordination?
Cyber & Physical Security?
Technology Innovations?
Expectations?
Economics?
Risks?
Drivers?
Policy?
Societal, Cultural, Environmental?
Quality of Service?
Market Dynamics?
Geospatial?
Demographic?
Fuel Sources?
Contracts?
Financing & Investment?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

4. Scenario Development - Focus Question
How might customer demand for electric services in the Western Interconnection evolve as new technologies and policies create more market options, and with that, what risks and opportunities may emerge for the power industry in sustaining electric reliability?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

5. Scenario Development - Key Factors
The changing nature of electric customer demand
How might customer demand shift in the Western Interconnection (state-level analysis)
Which technologies will be important and how might they evolve?
What will be market dynamics in technology adoption?
What energy policies at both State and Federal levels will be important and influential?
What kinds of risks might we see for power reliability?
Will there by opportunities to redefine and shift how reliability is met?
As all of this occurs, how will a sustainable, effective and reliable power system form and be maintained?
What risks to reliability might we experience related to the interconnectedness of the natural gas and electricity systems?
How might increasing use of distributed energy resources change customers’ needs for a Bulk Power System based on long, inter-regional transmission lines?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

6. Scenario Matrix with Description
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

7. Scenario Development Cycle
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8. Scenario Development Cycle
We’re Here Now
Matrix
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

9. Scenario Development Modeling
Matrix
Scoping Engagement
Modeling
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

10. Tool Driven Studies Constrained by Tool Capabilities & Limitations
Old Study Approach
Constrained by Tool Capabilities & Limitations
Design Studies Within Tool Limitations
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

11. Question Driven Studies
New Approach
Scenario Question(s)
Identify Tools, Models, Data, Expertise, and Methods Available for Use
Assemble Study Resources Required to Answer Question(s) A B X Z Y
Craft Study Approach
Focus on Question(s) to be Answered
Available Study Resources
Scoping
Augment Tool Suite as Needed
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

12. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario Modeling
Identify scenario questions to be answered.
Scope a Study Approach:
Tools,
Models,
Data,
Methods,
Expertise,
Craft study approach.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

13. Scoping a Study Approach
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

14. Scoping a Study Approach
Questions to be Answered
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

15. Scoping a Study Approach
Study Resources
Questions to be Answered
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

16. Scoping a Study Approach
Study Resources
Questions to be Answered
Study Approach
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

17. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Study Scoping Matrix
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

18. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Study Scoping Matrix
Questions
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

19. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Study Scoping Matrix
Questions
Scenarios
Study Requests
WECC Initiated
Etc.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

20. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Study Scoping Matrix
Questions
Tools
Models
Data
Expertise
Methods
Scenarios
Study Requests
WECC Initiated
Etc.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

21. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Study Scoping Matrix
Questions
Tools
Models
Data
Expertise
Methods
Scenarios
PCM?
CapEx?
Power Flow?
Etc.
PCM
Nodal
Zonal
Stochastic
Load
Generator
Network
Economics
WECC
Consultant
National Labs
Academia
CapEx
Power Flow
Combinatiion
Study Requests
WECC Initiated
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

22. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Study Resources
Production Cost
Power Flow
Capital Cost
Stochastics
Predictive Analytics
Geospatial
Consultants
National Labs
Stakeholders
Other . . .
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

23. Scenario Scoping Players
WECC
Academia MS
Consultants DS
National Labs
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

24. Scenario Scoping Players
WECC
Academia MS
Consultants DS
National Labs
Study Approach Alternatives & Recommendations
SDS Approved Study Approach
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

25. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Questions
Michael Bailey
Western Electricity Coordinating Council