1. Crude Oil Outlook Oil Demand Growth Oil Supply Growth Stocks
China / OECD / EM Growth
Weather – Northern winter, El Nino / La Nina
Regulations –RFS, ECA etc
Demand substitution – LNG, EV, renewables etc
Refining capacity growth
Indian demand growth
Oil Supply Growth
US growth, new pipelines
Other non-OPEC growth / Bio-fuels
OPEC spare capacity
Outages / Geo-political Risks
Iran, Iraq, Libya, WAF
South Sudan, Yemen, Syria
Venezuela
Upstream Capital Investment
E& D costs and floor for marginal barrels
Stocks
Crude stocks in OECD countries
Finished product stocks
Floating stocks
Other Drivers
China – US Trade war
Economic Slowdown
Non-commercial or speculative positions
Central Bank’s monetary policies
Long term oil price expectations
Producer hedging activity
Contango / backwardation structure in curve
USD strength
SPR programs