1. The Midlife Crisis, Suicide, and Social and Economic Policy
Andrew Oswald
Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science
University of Warwick, UK
Downloadable papers at
I would like to acknowledge that these ideas come out of joint work with co-authors Ahmed Tohamy, Andrew Clark, Nick Powdthavee, David G. Blanchflower, Alex Weiss, Rainer Winkelmann, Dilip Jeste, and Steve Wu. I thank the ESRC for support.

3. Humans have feelings, and feelings matter.

8. What happens as we get older?

9. Jaques, E. (1965). Death and the mid-life crisis
Jaques, E. (1965). Death and the mid-life crisis. International Journal of Psycho-analysis, 46,

10. Is there scientific evidence for a midlife crisis?

13. (0) Quantity in Stock:19 Availability: Usually Ships in 24 Hours Product Code: LR-MMG0033
MSRP: $5.99
Our Price: $4.49
(0) Quantity in Stock:19 Availability: Usually Ships in 24 Hours Product Code: LR-MMG0033

14. Scientific opinion “The midlife crisis is a myth…”
“Epidemiological study of psychological distress…does not suggest that midlife is a time of out-of-the-ordinary distress”
etc.

15. The bottom line today

16. The bottom line today
There really is a midlife low

17. The bottom line today There really is a midlife low
It seems to happen equally in men and women

18. The bottom line today There really is a midlife low
It seems to happen equally in men and women
It is scientifically unexplained

19. The bottom line today There really is a midlife low
It seems to happen equally in men and women
It is scientifically unexplained
There is a possibility that it is somehow biological.

20. Two separate literatures
U-shaped well-being patterns
Hill-shaped suicide patterns

21. Let’s start with the second (joint work with Ahmed Tohamy)

22. Let’s start with the second (joint work with Ahmed Tohamy)
I’ll concentrate on data on females.

23. The hill-shaped pattern of suicide among modern British females

24. The hill-shape for Swedish females

25. The hill-shape in Belgium

26. The hill-shape in the Netherlands

27. The hill-shape in Canada

28. Yet most of these are small- to medium-size nations.

29. The hill-shaped pattern of suicide among modern US females

30. And … the US had a hill-shape in 1980

31. The US hill-shape in 1980

32. Averaging for 28 industrialized nations

33. The hill-shaped pattern of suicide among modern US females

34. If you would like to see results for males:

35. Britain

36. Canada

37. USA

38. Another approach -- using subjective well-being data.

39. Regression equations
Mental well-being = f(Age, gender, education level, income, marital status, friendship networks, region, year…)

40. The pattern of a typical person’s happiness through life

41. This holds in various settings

42. Life Satisfaction in Eurobarometer data (36 nations; 32,000 observations). Year Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

43. Arthur Stone, Angus Deaton, et al (2010)

44. Overall well-being: USA

45. The latest UK government data (Sample: 100,000 Britons) Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

46. Recent US data (Sample: 400,000 Americans) Blanchflower-Oswald estimates

47. New UK survey questions
• Overall, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays?

48. New UK survey questions
• Overall, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays?
• Overall, how happy did you feel yesterday?

49. New UK survey questions
• Overall, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays?
• Overall, how happy did you feel yesterday?
• Overall, how anxious did you feel yesterday?

50. New UK survey questions
• Overall, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays?
• Overall, how happy did you feel yesterday?
• Overall, how anxious did you feel yesterday?
• Overall, to what extent do you feel the things you do in your life are worthwhile?

51. Well-being and age, for example

52. The probability of depression by age
Males, LFS data set
0.02
0.015
0.01
Regression coefficient
0.005
-0.005
-0.01
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
Year of birth

53. Depression by age among females: LFS data 2004-2006Q2
0.002
-0.002
-0.004
Regression coefficient
-0.006
-0.008
-0.01
-0.012
-0.014
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
Year of birth

54. The Relationship Between the Probability of Antidepressant Use and Age (European nations)

55. and longitudinally:
“Longitudinal Evidence for a Midlife Nadir in Human Well-being: Results from Four Data Sets” (with T. Cheng and N. Powdthavee). Economic Journal, 2017.

56. But what causes the midlife dip?

57. But what causes the midlife dip?
It is nothing to do with having young children, and is found all over the world.

58. But what causes the midlife dip?
It is nothing to do with having young children, and is found all over the world. 65+ nations so far.

59. Why?

60. Until recently, the leading theory was one of thwarted aspirations.

61. Until recently, the leading theory was one of thwarted aspirations.

62. But researchers around the world must now consider throwing away that theory.

65. Happiness in humans

67. So currently researchers are stuck.
What might explain this U-shaped well-being pattern through life that is apparently found over and over?
Downloadable research papers at

68. On policy
How should governments and social scientists (and medical scientists) respond?

69. One idea Redzo and I are pursuing: It may be that humans cut back on their ‘comparing’

70. The Midlife Crisis, Suicide, and Social and Economic Policy
Andrew Oswald
Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science
University of Warwick, UK
Downloadable papers at
I would like to acknowledge that these ideas come out of joint work with co-authors Ahmed Tohamy, Andrew Clark, Nick Powdthavee, David G. Blanchflower, Alex Weiss, Rainer Winkelmann, Dilip Jeste, and Steve Wu. I thank the ESRC for support.