1. Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
CoastDat: Reconstrution of Marine Weather and Risk since 1960 – A European strategy with potential for SE Asis
Hans von Storch
Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany
and
Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
20 min‘s incl. discussion

2. How to determine decadal and longer variations in the storm climate?
How has the NE Atlantic storm climate developed in the last few decades and last few centuries?
3. How did wind storm-impact on storm surges and ocean waves develop in the past decades?
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

3. How to determine decadal and longer variations in the storm climate?
How has the NE Atlantic storm climate developed in the last few decades and last few centuries?
4. How did wind storm-impact on storm surges and ocean waves develop in the past decades?
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

4. Wind, homogeneity
Climate = statistics of weather, as given by distributions or parameters thereof, such as means, percentiles etc.
Changes of wind stats difficult to determine, because of changing observation practices. Earlier: visual assessment, nowadays: instrumental.
Another difficulty is that the recorded values depend on the immediate environment of the location where the observation is made. This environment is subject to gradual and abrupt changes.
Almost all long record of wind observations are inhomogeneous, i.e., they do not only reflect changes of the wind statistics but also other factors, such as observation method, practice, location, analysis method ….
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

5. Storm surges in Hamburg
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

6. Difference of storm surge heights Hamburg - Cuxhaven
Hamburg – Storm surges
Difference of storm surge heights Hamburg - Cuxhaven
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them
inhomogeneous

7. 45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

8. Damages and storms
Recent meeting of scientists and re-insurances (Pielke and Höppe, 2006)
Consensus statement: „1. Climate change is real, and has a significant human component related to greenhouse gases. 2. Direct economic losses of global disasters have increased in recent decades with particularly large increases since the 1980s. 8. Analyses of long-term records of disaster losses indicate that societal change and economic development are the principal factors responsible for the documented increasing losses to date. 10. There is evidence that changing patterns of extreme events are drivers for recent increases in global losses. 13. In the near future the quantitative link (attribution) of trends in storm and flood losses to climate changes related to GHG emissions is unlikely to be answered unequivocally.“
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them
inhomogeneous

9. Pressure based proxies
Pressure readings are usually homogenous, and often available for a long time (even centuries)
Annual percentiles of geostrophic wind (e.g., 95 or 99%iles). Annual percentiles of geostrophic wind and “real” wind are linearly related.
Annual frequency of 24 hourly local pressure change of 16 hPa in a year
Annual frequency of pressure readings less than 980 hPa in a year
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

10. How to determine decadal and longer variations in the storm climate?
How has the NE Atlantic storm climate developed in the last few decades and last few centuries?
3. How did wind storm impact on storm surges and ocean waves develop in the past decades?
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

11. 99%iles of annual geostrophic wind speeds
for a series of station triangles in the North Sea regions and in the Baltic Sea region.
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them
Alexandersson et al., 2002

12. Stockholm
Lund
Time series of pressure-based storminess indices derived from pressure readings in Lund (blue) and Stockholm (red). From top to bottom: Annual number of pressure observations below 980 hPa (Np980), annual number of absolute pressure differences exceeding 16 hPa/12 h (NDp/Dt),
Intra-annual 95-percentile and 99-percentile of the pressure differences (P95 and P99) in units of hPa. From Bärring and von Storch, 2005 (GRL)
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

13. How to determine decadal and longer variations in the storm climate?
How has the NE Atlantic storm climate developed in the last few decades and last few centuries?
How did wind storm-impact on storm surges and ocean waves develop in the past decades?
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

14. Downscaling cascade 45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

15. t ≥ T t ≤ T Change of # Bft 8/year Stormcount 1958-2001
Weisse et al., J. Climate, 2005
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them
Change of # Bft 8/year

16. Trends of annual percentiles of storm surge heights
Weisse & Plüß, 2005
90%iles
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

17. Trends of annual percentiles in ocean (significant) wave heights
Weisse, Gaslikova, pers. comm.
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

18. Summary
How to determine decadal and longer variations in the storm climate? Use homogenous proxies for storminess.
How has the NE Atlantic storm climate developed in the last few decades and last few centuries? An intensification in ; thereafter activity has ceased somewhat. No significant changes since 1800.
How did wind storm-impact on storm surges and ocean waves develop in the past decades? Storm surges as well as ocean wave extremes develop mostly parallel to wind conditions; no significant increases in the past, except for an ongoing increase in the Southern North Sea.
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them

19. Outlook: Scenarios for 2085
A2 -changes in 99 % - iles of wind speed (6 hourly, DJF): west wind sector selected (247.5 to 292o)
HIRHAM
RCAO
Increase of strong wind speeds (seasonal 99%iles; westerly winds) until as compared to
of the order of  10%
thus, per decade less than 1-2%
 change should not be detectable at this time.
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them
Woth, 2005, GRL

20. Outlook
Similar problems with other storms – extra-tropical „polar lows“ and tropical „typhoons“ : > inhomogeneity of data > insufficient time series lengths New efforts for constructing climatologies and changes underway at GKSS at institutions in Taiwan and Korea.
45 min‘s
· Ideally a review of the methods employed in your field to detect and analyze change and feedbacks, finishing off with what the state of the art is in the methods and suggestions for newer methods that might be transferable to hydrologic extremes
· We are most interested in the methods you employ rather than a possible synthesis with hydrology
· Summarize the challenges you are facing detecting and analyzing change and feedbacks and assigning causality to them