1. Sensitivity of the Control of Corruption Indicator and its Sub-Sources to Discrete Corruption-Related Events
Prepared for the Millennium Challenge Corporation By
Katie Cary
Constance Chucholowski
Ryan Hohler
Jiaqi Lu
Malika Talbi

2. ROADMAP Background WGI Control of Corruption Indicator
Methodology and Limitations
Case Study Analysis
Sub-source and General Findings
Recommendations

3. BACKGROUND Millennium Challenge Corporation - Ex-post aid
- CoC as “hard-hurdle” for Compact assistance

4. CORRUPTION Common definition: abuse of public power for private gain
Corruption inhibits growth
Source: corruptionsucks.blogspot

6. Control of Corruption Indicator & Sub-Sources
GII
GCB
CCR
Control of Corruption Indicator & Sub-Sources
CoC
FRH
EIU
BPS
ADB
AFR
BTI
PRS
ASD
CONSTANCE 22 sub-sources compiled using the Unobserved components model
GCS
IPD
WMO
GWP

7. RESEARCH QUESTION
Do the Control of Corruption Indicator and its sub-sources show sensitivity to discrete corruption-related events (CREs)?

8. METHODOLOGY Purposive Sampling Needle-jump
Ponzi scheme in Benin (2010)
Sponsorship scandal in Canada (2003)
Anti-corruption reforms in Georgia (2004)
“Credible” signal reforms in Kenya (2003)
Needle-jump
Post liberalization reforms in Serbia (2000)

9. LIMITATIONS Lack of external validity Sampling biases
Data inaccessibility
Non-causal identification

11. SCANDAL IN BENIN Micro-lending bank discovered to be Ponzi scheme
President Yayi involvement
Approximately USD $327M
Country, Scandal, Scandal Effects

12. BENIN – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

13. BENIN – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

14. SCANDAL IN CANADA Sponsorship Scandal
Provided payoffs and kickbacks to party supporters
Reflected in the data, but quick recovery

15. CANADA – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

16. CANADA – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

17. REFORMS IN GEORGIA 2003 Rose Revolution
Overhaul of police system, drastic decrease in petty bribery
Heralded as anti-corruption success
Country Context, Reform, Effect

18. GEORGIA – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

19. GEORGIA – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

20. REFORMS IN KENYA Kibaki anti-corruption election platform
Establishment of Kenyan Anti-Corruption Commission and appointment of Permanent Secretary for Governance and Ethics
Business as usual

21. KENYA – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

22. KENYA – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

23. KENYA SUB-SOURCE DATA – PRS vs. GCS

24. REFORMS IN SERBIA Removal of Milosevic
Economic liberalization and broad anti-corruption reforms
Continued corruption

25. SERBIA – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

26. SERBIA – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA
CONSTANCE

27. CONTROL OF CORRUPTION TRENDS IN ALL CASE STUDY COUNTRIES

28. SUB-SOURCE FINDINGS
AFRO Barombeter, EIU, WMO CONSTANCE

29. GENERAL FINDINGS Non-uniform responsiveness UCM weighting
Bias toward long-term sustainable change
Connection between CREs and other events too difficult to disaggregate

30. RECOMMENDATIONS Complete additional research
Evaluate continued efficacy and construct validity of CoC to MCC objectives
Further analysis on correlation of CoC to other governance indicators

31. QUESTIONS?

32. ADDITIONAL IMAGE CITATIONS
“Georgia: The Rose Revolution Fades.” Georgia and World. August 15, Accessed on May 1,
Flag of Kenya. Wikipedia. Accessed on May 1,
“UK Fraud Office Halts Keyna Probe.” BBC News. February 5, Accessed on May 1, 2014.
Flag of Canada. Wikipedia. Accessed on May 1,
“The Ontario Young Liberals Blur the Line Between Satire and Genuineness.” James W.J. Bowden’s Blog. March 29, Accessed on May 1,
Flag of Benin. Wikipedia. Accessed on May 1,
“Yayi Boni.” Afrique Media Vision. Accessed on May 1,
Flag of Serbia. Wikipedia. Accessed on May 1,
“Croatian Show Documents Djinjic Murder.” B92. February 12, Accessed on May 1,

33. ADDITIONAL IMAGE CITATIONS, ctd.
Afrobarometer logo. Afrobarometer. Accessed on May 1,
Freedom House logo. Freedom House. Accessed on May 1,
Economist Intelligence Unit logo. Economist Intelligence Unit. Accessed on May 1,
Institutional Profiles Database logo. Institutional Profiles Database. Accessed on May 1,