1. MIFIRA Framework: Lecture 13 Putting together the pieces
Chris Barrett and Erin Lentz
March 2012

2. Putting together the pieces
Before diving into the analytics consider:
Needs assessment
Context
Households and Individuals
Marketshed
Seasonal Calendars
Market-mapping
Policies

3. Putting together the pieces
What are the pieces?
Recipients / Consumers
Access
Preferences
Demand
Suppliers & Source Markets
Identifying markets
Supply responsiveness
Competition
Equilibrium effects
Integrate supply responsiveness and demand

4. Access
1a. Are food insecure households well connected to local markets?
Basic info: which markets, for what products, when?
What constrains access?
Inter-community constraints
Distance, safety, costs, seasons
Intra-community constraints
Socio-cultural reasons (gender, caste, marital status, etc.), safety, OVCs, HIV+ households
When are access constraints insurmountable?
Can be stand alone assessment

5. Demand Response 1b. How will local demand respond to transfers?
By how much will demand shift?
The form of the transfer matters
The amount of the transfer matters
The targeting of the transfer plays a major role
The demand effects of transfers are typically greatest among poorer households and in lean seasons.

6. Preferences
1e. Do food insecure households have a preference over the form/mix of aid they receive?
Eliciting preferences can identify not only preferred transfer but also issues and concerns of households or individuals
When eliciting preferences, need to provide information on how transfers would most likely be delivered
Will delivery location and timing for different transfers differ?
Will cash transfers be inflation indexed?
Preferences drive elasticities

7. Methods of understanding access and preferences
Information sources:
Expenditure data
Rapid Appraisal
Key Informants
Household survey
Focus group discussions
by gender
by target population
Inter-community differences
Marketshed mapping

8. Supply Side
1c. How much additional food can traders supply at or near current costs? & 2b. Will agency purchases drive up food prices excessively in source markets?
Trader capacity to respond to demand increases
Price analysis: market integration and IPPs
Availability and trade
Barriers to trade expansion (including policies)
Supply chains and market maps
Supply responsiveness
Linking supply and marginal costs
Can be stand alone assessment

9. Supply side 1d. Do local food traders behave competitively?
Marketing margins
Counts, CR4, HHI
Structure, conduct, performance
2a. Where are viable prospective source markets? & 2c. Will local or regional purchases affect producer prices differently than transoceanic shipments?
Market integration and IPPs
Formal and informal policies
Availability
Program comparisons

10. Triangulating Findings
MIFIRA analytics may conflict, due to:
Different types of data
Different underlying assumptions
Different geographic scope
The less precise the MIFIRA analysis, the more important monitoring becomes

11. Monitoring: three areas
Early warning indicators:
Has the food security situation changed?
Monitoring market conditions:
How are markets functioning (e.g., are prices rising? are prices volatile?, has competition changed?)?
Monitoring impact of the intervention:
Is the intended population being reached?
Is the program having the intended effects?
Are there any adverse effects?
For a given program, is the form of transfer still appropriate?

12. Role of Monitoring in Information Gathering, Planning and Analysis, and Program Implementation Cycle
Source: Barrett (2009) MIFIRA

13. Monitoring
We focus on monitoring market conditions and program effects
Tailor monitoring
The less precise an aspect of the analysis is, the more important careful monitoring of that aspect becomes
When feasible, assess duration and direction of change
Expectations, trends
Assess program size relative to the local economy

14. Monitoring Prices
When will ongoing monitoring of prices indicate a need for further investigation?
Prices rise or are more volatile
Are prices increasing more than 10% (or more than the amount estimated using supply responsiveness)?
Are prices outstripping inflation?
Abnormalities compared to expectations
Are prices deviating from historical trends?
Data falls outside of estimated confidence bands
Are prices increasing more than estimated?

15. Monitoring Recipient Impacts
Households can provide information on:
Ease of access
Food availability in local markets
Changes in terms of trade and prices
Severity of food insecurity
Perceived quality of food

16. Monitoring Local and Regional Procurement
Assess prices of food in target delivery markets
Increases in price volatility can harm local producers
And, assess prices in source markets
Identify possible harm to consumers at the source market
Increased volatility around / following LRP

17. Minimum Monitoring Schedule
Prices and terms of trade: semi-monthly or monthly
Household access and preference: periodically
Important events: as they arise
Be precise about data needs

18. Triggers When should response analysis be re-visited?
Sources of triggers:
Shocks, important events or other changes
Findings from on-going monitoring
Abnormalities or departures from the context under which the analysis was completed
If re-evaluating the response analysis is warranted, focus on aspects that have changed

19. Triggers Shocks: Abnormalities: On-going monitoring:
Policy changes affecting staple foods, livelihoods, or food trade
Market access of traders/ households (conflict, infrastructural damage)
Abnormalities:
Changes in supply chains, competition
On-going monitoring:
Price spikes or unusual volatility
Changes in terms of trade for food insecure or near- insecure households (including inflation)