1. Problem Solving and Decision Making Skills
Achala Dahal/Anita Poudel
Nepal Administrative Staff College

2. Session Outline Problem / Problem Solving Decision / Decision Making
Decision making process
Ethical decision making
Styles / Models of Decision Making
Decision making tools
Traps in Decision Making

4. Problem
“In a day, when you don’t come across any problems- you can be sure that you are traveling in a wrong path.”
Swami Vivekananda
A problem is a situation or a state of affairs that causes difficulties for people. It is also a gap between a current and a desired state. The gap may be viewed as the difference between 'what is' and 'what should be' or 'where we are' and 'where we want to be'.

5. Triple Constraint Principle
Time
Cost
Problem
Performance
Something is a problem if:
It makes you LATE
It increases COST
It degrades PERFORMANCE

6. Problem Solving
If a problem is a gap between two states, then problem solving is 'the process of closing that gap, i.e. changing the current state into the desired one.'

7. ANALYSE
Problem
Seen
Un Seen

8. A decision is one when there are different things you can do and you pick one of them.

9. Forethought
Some are easy like…
Some are difficult like…

10. Lets think…. ?

11. How decision matters ?

13. How a decision matters ?
Cable Car
Rope way

14. Decision matters
Organization
Team
Relation
Individual as a officer…

15. “A Decision is a Judgment.”
Peter Drucker
INTUITION (Gut Feeling – past experience and personal values)
REASONING/JUDGEMENT (Facts and Figures)

18. Decision making
Combination of mental, physical and behavioral processes related to:
Rationale
Resources
Results
Resolution

19. Decision-Making Process
The process of recognizing and defining the nature of a decision situation, identifying alternatives, choosing the “best” alternative, and putting it into practice.
For us, of course it is optimization of service delivery time, resources and many more.
Officers make decisions about both problems and opportunities.

20. Decision making- essence of managerial function

21. Decisions in Planning What are the organization’s long term goals?
What strategies best achieve these objectives?
What should the organization’s short term objectives be?
How difficult should individual goals be?

22. Decisions in Organizing
How many employees should I have report directly to me?
How much centralization should there be in the organization?
How should jobs be designed?
When should the organization implement a different structure?

23. Decisions in Leading
How do I handle employees who appear to be low in motivation?
What is the most effective leadership style in a given situation?
How will a specific change affect worker productivity?
When is the right time to stimulate conflict?

24. Decisions in Controlling
What activities in the organization need to be controlled?
How should those activities be controlled?
When is a performance deviation significant?
What type of management information system should the organization have?

25. Albert Einstein- Rebel, failure, genius.mp4

26. “ I am not a product of my circumstances, I am a product of my Decisions”
– Stephen Covey

27. What best decision maker do ? - HBR review
They are very clear about the end goal;
They think in terms of options or alternatives, often out of box;
 They seek diverse inputs and look from different angles

28. Obama’s way of decision making
"You're never 100 percent certain that the course of action you're choosing is going to work. What you can have confidence in is that the probability of it working is higher than the other options available to you. But that still leaves some uncertainty, which I think can be stressful, and that's part of the reason why it's so important to be willing to constantly reevaluate decisions based on new information.”- Barack Obama
Obama makes decisions slowly, and with head, not gut
Source: WashingtonPost.com/ Politics 2009

29. Decision Making Environment Decision Making Tools
Decision Making Realities
Authorities in Decision Making
Influencing Factors in Decision Making
6 Cs

30. Decision Making Environment

32. Decision Making Realities
Everybody has their own unique set of values: what they believe to be important. The decisions that you make will, ultimately, be based on your values. That means that the decision that is right for you may not be right for someone else.
circumstances

33. Ethical Decision Making
An ethical dilemma is one in which a person has to choose between two options, both of which are morally correct but in conflict.
Ethical Dilemma_(360p).mp4

34. Any ethical dilemma situation you have encountered in your professional life ?

35. Ethical Framework for Decision Making - Dr. David Messek
Five Sources of Ethical Standards for Decision Making
The Utilitarian Approach
The ethical action is the one that will produce the greatest balance of benefits over harms.
The Rights Approach The ethical action is the one that most dutifully respects the rights of all affected.
The Fairness or Justice Approach The ethical action is the one that treats people equally, or if unequally, that treats people proportionately and fairly.
The Common Good Approach The ethical action is the one that contributes most to the achievement of a quality common life together.
Virtue Approach
The ethical action is the one that embodies the habits and values of humans at their best.

36. The utilitarian approach
Which option will produce the most good and do the least harm?
The rights approach
Which option best respects the rights of all stakeholders?
The fairness or justice approach
Which option treats people equally or proportionately?
The common good approach
Which option best serves the community as a whole, not just some members?
The virtue approach
Which option leads me to act as the sort of person I want to be?

37. How good is my decision making skills ?
Self assessment !!!!

38. Score
Comment
18-42
Your decision-making hasn't fully matured. You aren't objective enough, and you rely too much on luck, instinct or timing to make reliable decisions. Start to improve your decision-making skills by focusing more on the process that leads to the decision, rather than on the decision itself.
43-66
Your decision-making process is OK. You have a good understanding of the basics, but now you need to improve your process and be more proactive. Concentrate on finding lots of options and discovering as many risks and consequences as you can. The better your analysis, the better your decision will be in the long term.
67-90
You have an excellent approach to decision-making! You know how to set up the process and generate lots of potential solutions. From there, you analyze the options carefully, and you make the best decisions possible based on what you know. As you gain more and more experience, use that information to evaluate your decisions, and continue to build on your decision-making success.

39. Factors influencing decision making.
Cognitive and personal biases
Emotional bias
Skills and competencies
Situational factors
Instrumental factors
Integrity and ethics
Powers
Political
Legal, Social, Technological
Administrative
Muscle, Money…

40. What leads to effective decision-making ?
 Adequate Training: Do I have the necessary training to assume the increased risk level and resolve the situation? Am I physically and mentally capable?
Level of Experience: Do I possess the experience necessary to address the problem, or do I need to call for a supervisor?
Proper Equipment: Do you have the proper equipment for risk level involved? 
Gut Feeling: What does your gut feeling tell you? You have a sixth sense that the decision you’re about to make is not a well-thought as you would like.

41. Six Cs of Decision making
Construct: A clear picture of precisely what must be decided
Compile: A list of requirements that must be met
Collect: Information on alternatives that meet the requirements
Compare: Alternatives that meet the requirements
Consider: The “what might go wrong” factor with each alternative
Commit: To a decision and follow through with it.

42. Decision making Styles/approaches
Authoritarian
Democratic
Laissez-faire
Authoritarian style includes:
Characteristics:
Causes unhappy relationships to develop
Demands group members perform tasks quickly and efficiently
Does not accept the ideas of others
Dictates group activity
Group does not experience feeling of teamwork
Is firm, demanding and direct
Limits discussion on ideas and new ways of doing things
Uses power to influence others to carry out ideas
Tells others what to do
Authoritarian leadership can be effective when:
Group does not know each other
Time is limited
Individuals/group lack skill and knowledge
Authoritarian leadership can be ineffective when:
Developing a strong sense of team is the goal
Some degree of skill/knowledge is in members
Group wants an element of spontaneity in their work
Democratic style includes:
Allows group members to feel they can do tasks their own way
Allows free flow of ideas
Asks before telling
Involves group members in planning and carrying out activities
Is friendly and sociable
Makes decisions and determinations based upon group’s consensus
Keeps group focused
Motivates group members
Promotes a sense of teamwork
Shapes groups with regard to consensus opinion
Democratic leadership can be effective when:
Group is motivated and/or a sense of team exists
Some degree of skill or knowledge among members of group
Time is available
Democratic leadership can be ineffective when:
Group is unmotivated
High degree of conflict present
No skill/knowledge is in members
Laissez-faire style includes:
Allows group members to do whatever they want
A person does not seem in charge
Gives little or no direction to group/individuals
Does not direct group activity
Is less structured than democratic
Opinion is offered only when requested
Produces groups that are not very productive
Stays on the same level as the group
Laissez-faire leadership can be effective when:
High degree of skill and motivation
Routine is familiar to participants
Sense of team exists
Laissez-faire leadership can be ineffective when:
Group expects to be told what to do
Low degree of skill/knowledge is in members
Low sense of team/independence
Which style or approach suits you ?

43. Approaches/Styles to Decision Making
No one style appropriate for all situations.
Occasions when one style rather than any other is more likely to produce better quality decisions implemented with greater success.
Each style has a probability of getting results depending on the maturity of followers and the situation.
Need to adopt a flexible approach by varying style in response to the nature of the decision and the context in which it is made and ultimately implemented.

44. Decision making styles

45. Decision making tools Problem Restatement technique
SWOT analysis/ PEST analysis / Stakeholder analysis / Spoiler analysis
Pareto principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort
Brainstorming/ Delphi Technique / Nominal Group Technique
Cause and effect
Cost benefit analysis
Six thinking Hat
 Problem Restatement Technique  Broaden our perspective of a problem, not to solve it  Help us identify the central issues & alternative solutions  Increase the chance that the outcome our analysis produces will fully, not partially, resolve the problem Decision Making Tools
50. II- SWOT Analysis: 1- Strength 2- Weaknesses 3- Opportunities 4- Threats Decision Making Tools
51. III- Pareto Principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort. Decision Making Tools
52. Decision Making Tools Individual Brainstorming: 1. Tends to develop fewer ideas, but takes each idea further 2. Can be risky for individuals. Valuable but strange suggestions may appear stupid at first sight. Group Brainstorming: 1. It is best for generating many ideas, but can be time consuming 2. Needs formal rules for it to work smoothly( Disagreements) 3. Group brainstorming sessions are usually enjoyable experiences, which are great for creating cohesion in a team IV- Brainstorming: No criticism of ideas, free rein is given to creativity
53. Decision Making Tools V- Cause& Effect VI- Porter’s 5 Forces:
54. VII- Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/benefit analysis – evaluating quantitatively whether to follow a course of action. Add up the value of the benefits of a course of action and subtract the costs associated with it. Decision Making Tools
55. VII- Six Thinking Hats- Tools/ Framework Creative Positive Objective Feelings Negative Process Avoid confusion Parallel Thinking = cooperation

46. Six Thinking Hats

47. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

48. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

49. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

50. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making meta - cognition

51. Modes of thinking - Let’s work on Group with an issue -
“In Nepalese Army , passing through the examination of staff college is very tough yet an important ladder to pass for the advancement of career to every officers. It is like a dream come true.
Besides in the organisation a large pool of officers are left behind who cannot come across in the competition and in a long run the assets of today will turn to be the liabilities in the future.
The organisation as a dynamic system have to think towards creating the human resource motivated and productive. As an important member of the organisation you are requested to think from diverse perspective and provide solution on it.

52. - 45 minutes to solve the problem and reach to the solution.
Divide the participants into six groups as six hats.
Each group have 10 minutes to discuss and collect the information or view on their respective hats
Select one member from each group who will present their group’s idea (s)(5 minutes for each participants)
Decide on the solution (5 minutes)

53. Personal trap in decision making
Not willing to come out of comfort zone
Fear and biasness in thinking and analysis
Getting lost in minutia
Seeking unanimous approval
Willing to decide beyond authority

54. System trap in decision making
Too little, inaccurate or wrong information
Overlook viable alternatives or waste time considering alternatives beyond realistic prospects
Not following the six Cs
Failure to clearly define the expected results
Worst of all, failure to reach a decision

55. Organizational Constraints:
Bounded Rationality
Limited time, information, resources to deal with complex, multidimensional issues
Decision/ Choice:
Search for a high quality decision alternative
Trade-off
Personal Constraints: Personal desire for prestige, Success, Personal Decision making style
Trade-off
Trade-off
Organizational Constraints:
Level of agreement, shared perspective, organizational culture and structure, ethical values
Trade-off
Source: Irving L. Janis, Crucial Decisions ( New York: Free press, 1989)

56. “Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”
System thinking is crucial
“Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”

57. “Oops!”

58. Considerations Priority Ethics Standards Implementation
Teams and Network
Technicalities
Indecisiveness and Decline
Diversity
Risk propensity

59. Conclusion No organization can run without making decisions
Wellbeing of an organization depends almost on the quality of its decisions
Make decisions based on rational process rather than temporary feelings
Make a habit of reevaluating own decisions: remove biases and errors
System thinking is crucial for organizational decisions

61. “WE SELDOM HAVE TIME FOR THE IMPORTANT BECAUSE WE ARE WORKING
ON THE IMMEDIATE
AND THE IMMEDIATE IS
SELDOM THE IMPORTANT”
- Peter Drucker

62. Everybody makes mistakes; that's why they put erasers on pencils
Don’t be afraid to take decisions
Be afraid to make decisions
Everybody makes mistakes; that's why they put erasers on pencils

63. “Think Laterally, and be creative.”