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IP029. Incorporating Patient and Anatomic Factors in Predicting Operative Mortality of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Robust Risk Score Calculator 

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Presentation on theme: "IP029. Incorporating Patient and Anatomic Factors in Predicting Operative Mortality of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Robust Risk Score Calculator "— Presentation transcript:

1 IP029. Incorporating Patient and Anatomic Factors in Predicting Operative Mortality of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Robust Risk Score Calculator  Besma Nejim, Hanaa Dakour Aridi, Satinderjit Locham, Mohammad H. Eslami, Marc L. Schermerhorn, Mahmoud B. Malas  Journal of Vascular Surgery  Volume 67, Issue 6, Pages e96-e97 (June 2018) DOI: /j.jvs Copyright © Terms and Conditions

2 Fig 1 Nomogram of the perioperative risk score derived from the multivariable logistic regression models with bootstrapping with 1000 reps. Demographics = * age (if female). Comorbidities = 0.9 (if congestive heart failure [CHF]) (if chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD]) if history of lower extremity revascularization if history of aneurysm repair. Blood measures = 0.5 × creatinine level (mg/dL) + (6.8−0.34 × level [mg/dL]). Medications = 1.5 if no beta blocker (BB) if o statin (if BB only for < 30 days) (if BB >30 days). Aneurysm factors = × diameter (cm) (if rupture) (if open repair). Total = Demographics + Comorbidities + Blood tests + Medication + Aneurysm factors. Example: A 70-year-old woman presented with intact 6.5-cm AAA. She has CHF and COPD, and she is taking a statin but not BB. Her creatinine level is 2.0 mg/dL, and her hemoglobin (Hb) level is 10. What is her probability of death if she had open repair? Score = * * 2 + (6.8−0.34 * 10) * (open) = 18.3, which corresponds to 5%. Example 2. If the same women had a ruptured aneurysm, the score will be 23.4, and her probability of death would be 30%. Score = * Age (if female) (if CHF) (if COPD) * (creatinine in mg/dL) + (6.8− 0.34 * Hb in mg/dL) (if history of peripheral arterial disease repair) (if history of aneurysm repair) − 0.5 (if statin) (if <30 days BB) (if no BB) +1.7 (if >30 days BB) * diameter (if rupture) (if open). Journal of Vascular Surgery  , e96-e97DOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © Terms and Conditions

3 Fig 2 Observed mortality within quintiles of predicted probability of perioperative death by the proposed model (blue circle) and by the Medicare model (orange open circle). Journal of Vascular Surgery  , e96-e97DOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © Terms and Conditions


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