1. MTBPS and macroeconomic assessment (Nov 2003)
Brief economic background
Government’s macroeconomic assumptions
Budget arithmetic and the overall fiscal stance
Assessment of fiscal policy direction
Other issues

2. Economic Environment Global environment: Cyclical momentum picking up
Policy-induced upswing in US, China strong, elsewhere weak

3. Forecasts have also been revised up: IMF September

4. US growth

5. Policies have been very stimulatory

6. Fiscal deficits on the up: the US

7. US dollar under pressure

8. Commodities looking good

9. But less so in rand terms

10. Economic Environment Global environment: Cyclical momentum picking up
Policy-induced upswing in US, China strong, elsewhere weak
However, structurally problems remain which could frustrate and limit the length of the upswing
US corporate and individual debt very high, budget deficit growing, current account reflects strong dissaving
Europe structural labour market problems, large government deficits
Japan bank problems dating back to 1980s, ageing population
China rampant credit and bankrupt state banks, but dynamic

11. Rand reacting to dollar weakness

12. Is the rand fairly valued?
Real effective rand = TW rand*ppi(sa)/ppi(int)

13. Is the rand fairly valued? Structural factors

14. Rand possibilities in context* *

15. Good opportunity to build up reserves

16. Will mixed economic fortunes continue?

17. Export volumes underperforming import volumes

18. Production side of economy is still struggling

19. But spending is rising

20. Consumer spending strong

21. Helped by lower interest rates

22. However, Reserve Bank is still optimistic on CPIX

23. Our view: short term outlook is very good but…

24. At the bottom or more to go?

25. Forecasts Main differences: Effect of rand on exports Global view
Inflationary expectations and base effect

26. MTBPS and macroeconomic assessment (Nov 2003)
Brief economic background
Government’s macroeconomic assumptions
Budget arithmetic and the overall fiscal stance

27. More expansionary mode

28. Estimates for current year: MTBPS and pre-MTBPS

29. Deficit rises above 3%

30. Space created by lower interest bill

31. Fiscal discipline and lower inflation drive yields down

32. Debt as % gdp levels out

33. Financing mix changes significantly

34. Fiscal policy assessment
Some positive aspects:
Space has been created by reducing the interest rate bill:
Lower interest rates (capital and money market) by reducing debt and inflation and securing a better sovereign risk rating
Spending was restricted until capacity and systems could be put in place
More emphasis now on capital spending – building the economy’s capacity
Job creation and poverty alleviation focus also good
Appropriate that the fruits of fiscal discipline can now be enjoyed
Period of consolidation on taxation side is necessary

35. Fiscal policy assessment
Areas of caution:
Potential problem if revenue disappoints due to weak global situation and the reversal in the rand
May help overstimulate some areas of the economy and make it more difficult to keep within inflation targets
Restructuring of state assets underemphasised
Capacity to spend and delivery still in question
Have to be careful not to reverse secular downtrend in bond yields

36. Other issues Extension of tax amnesty:
Good as will increase the chances of a successful exercise
Inflation targeting
Easier to understand but may be more difficult to hit
Good that targets kept the same – higher = higher interest bill and lower = unnecessary strain on short-term economic growth