1. WEATHER BRIEF FOR TBEC 12 November 2013, Nukualofa Tonga Met Service Nukualofa Ofa Faanunu Tonga Met Service MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE

2. RAINFALL

6. Seasonal Cycles 06/02/10Tonga Meteorological Services6 Seasonal Cycles

8. NIUAFOOUNIUATOPUTAPUVAVAU HAAPAINUKUALOFA NFO = ABOVE 1001MM NTT = ABOVE 864MM VAV= ABOVE 8I3MM HAP= ABOVE 580MM TBU = ABOVE 565MM

9. TROPICAL CYCLONES

10. What is a tropical cyclone? Tropical Cyclone= wind circulation around a centre > 34kts Warnings Wind speed Gale warning=34-47kt Storm warning =48-63kt Hurricane warning=>64kt 10/18/1010Tonga Meteorological Services

11. 10/18/1011Tonga Meteorological Services A Tropical Cyclone will be categorized as per the Australian and South Pacific Category System as follows: Category Potential damage 10-Min Mean WindMaximum 3-Sec Gust Category 1 (Tropical Cyclone) (Negligible house damage. Damage to some crops and trees. Boats may drag anchor e. g. TC CILLA) 63 – 87 km/hr (34 – 47 knots) Less than 125 km/hr (Damaging Winds) Category 2 (Tropical Cyclone) (Minor house damage. Significant damage to trees. Heavy damage to crops. Risk of power failure. Small boats my break anchor e. g. TC HINA) 88 – 117 km/hr (48 – 63 knots) 125-169 km/hr (Destructive Winds) Category 3 (Severe Tropical Cyclone) (Some roof and structural damage. Power failure likely e. g. TC KINA) 118 – 157 km/hr (64 – 85 knots) 170-224 km/hr (Very Destructive Winds) Category 4 (Severe Tropical Cyclone) (Significant roofing loss and structural damage, Dangerous airborne debris e. g TC WAKA) 159 – 200 km/hr (86 – 110 knots) 225-279 km/hr (Very Destructive Winds) Category 5 (Severe Tropical Cyclone) (Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction. e. g. TC HETA) Over 200 km/hr) (Over 110 knots) Over 280 km/hr (Very Destructive Winds)

13. 10/18/1013Tonga Meteorological Services

14. 06/02/10Tonga Meteorological Services14 Impacts and Extremes Average number of tropical cyclones per season (66 years) El Nino1.88 La Niňa1.63 Neutral1.64 All seasons 1.74

15. Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2013/14 Average to Below average no of TCs expected in the SW Pacific (mod confidence); TC risk is higher than normal for the countries west of and around the Dateline; 4 to 8 named tropical cyclones expected this season; Average to above average activity for Tonga

16. Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2013/14 Chance of getting a cyclone in Tonga this season is 114% (High). Likely 2 Severe TC Risk for Tonga 171% (Very High); Cyclone formation and track will most likely be from west to north quadrant

17. TC Season for 2013/14 similar conditions to 1981/82 - TC Isaac (Severe – C&S Tonga) 1984/85 - TC Lance (Storm), TC Drena (Storm) both N.Tonga, TC Eric (Severe – C&S Tonga) 1990/91 – TC Sina (Severe – C&S Tonga), TC Val (Severe – Northern Tonga) 1996/97 – TC Hina (Severe Southern Tonga), TC Keli (June) (Severe N.Tonga) 2001/02 – TC Waka (Severe N&C Tonga)

18. TSUNAMI

19. 2 natural cuts in the reef PACCSAP Project Nukualof a

23. Sea flooding already affects Nukualofa from subsidence even before the tsunami arrives

24. After modeling Confirmed extreme tsunami risk for Tongatapu There are wave depths of >10m in places and several km inland depending on local topography. Nukualofa and eastern Tongatapu are most vulnerable. Warning times will be very limited (10-25 minutes) There are several small pockets of safer (higher) ground

25. WILL NOT WORK IN A LOCAL EVENT

26. Detecting a local tsunami Tonga seismic network problematic (5 seismic stations) & no direct access by warning center Earthquake data from USGS Geological Survey Unit send an automatic message through HYDRA system (often can receive a preliminary center & magnitude quicker than PTWC) Warning center looking to using earthquake intensity meters to measure ground shaking as an early warning indicator Sea Level monitoring equipment to be improved through SPCR Project

27. Current warnings 1) Urgent Tsunami Alert – Ready made and ready to go (TMS) 2) Tsunami Warning - As received by PTWC (3)Local Earthquake Bulletin – Anything above 4.5M and below 70km depth (4)PTWC international SMS direct to mobile phone

28. Future warnings (from later 2014) 1) Urgent Tsunami Warning (ready made) 2) Tsunami Warning (when verified) (3)Local EQ Advisory (4.5 <M<7.5) <50km (4)Regional EQ Advisory(M>7.5) <50km (5)Distant EQ Advisory (6)Tsunami No threat Advisory (7)Tsunami Marine Warning

29. Disseminating the warnings 24hr SMS mobile alert service via 1 Telecom provider (Digicel) to selected users relevant to the warning system Live broadcast on national radio (Radio Tonga) – national coverage (both MET and NEMO) Activation of sirens in place Met Service Website Email distribution Telefone/fax

31. KALAAU THIS ROCK IS THOUGH TO BE BROUGHT BY A TSUNAMI

35. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga When there is an earthquake find something solid and lie down next to it. Do not go underneath table or bed etc When there is an earthquake find something solid and lie down next to it. Do not go underneath table or bed etc If the earthquake is strong enough for you to loose balance, move away from the coast immediately a tsunami might be on its way in less than 15mins If the earthquake is strong enough for you to loose balance, move away from the coast immediately a tsunami might be on its way in less than 15mins

36. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga Move inland by 1 mile and wait there. Listen to radio. If no radio then wait there for an hour Move inland by 1 mile and wait there. Listen to radio. If no radio then wait there for an hour Know where you live. Be aware of high strong buildings. Even tall trees you can climb Know where you live. Be aware of high strong buildings. Even tall trees you can climb If you are on a small island, move to the centre of the island a find a strong tree to climb If you are on a small island, move to the centre of the island a find a strong tree to climb

37. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga Be aware of what the wildlife and animals are doing. Often their senses are keener than humans Be aware of what the wildlife and animals are doing. Often their senses are keener than humans If u are at sea and you hear a tsunami warning stay out at sea, you are safe there If u are at sea and you hear a tsunami warning stay out at sea, you are safe there Do not drive when evacuation your home….WALK!! Do not drive when evacuation your home….WALK!!

38. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga Teach your family about tsunami and where to evacuate. You should not pickup your school children from school in an event of a tsunami Teach your family about tsunami and where to evacuate. You should not pickup your school children from school in an event of a tsunami All tsunami are dangerous. Large or Small. Heed warnings at all times All tsunami are dangerous. Large or Small. Heed warnings at all times Tsunami is not just one wave. It is a series of waves and the first is not necessarily the biggest Tsunami is not just one wave. It is a series of waves and the first is not necessarily the biggest

39. Things to do in an earthquake or tsunami in Tonga If you see the tide receding after a major earthquake..RUN!! If you see the tide receding after a major earthquake..RUN!! Do not attempt to go and see a tsunami. On level ground, when you see a tsunami is usually too late to escape Do not attempt to go and see a tsunami. On level ground, when you see a tsunami is usually too late to escape

40. MALO AUPITO