1. Scaling Factor and WCF impacts from current ALP profiles
Previous presentation mentioned Buchan spells as climate variance not currently in the seasonal normal (and hence ALP) shape
Theme Date Department
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2. Impacts – Mid Feb 2009 Buchan spells usually 7th to 14th Feb
Climate colder therefore ALP would be higher
Currently needing to scale up over this period suggesting profiles understate demand – would be corrected by peaky ALP from EP2 SN

3. Impacts – Mid April 2009 Buchan spells usually 11th to 14th April
Difference in level for WCF and scaling factor evident

4. Impacts – Mid May 2008 Buchan spells usually 9th to 14th April
Again difference in WCF apparent
Some 2008 impacts may be masked by issues with LDZ SND

5. Summary EP2 variation caused by climate model
Differences in WCF and SF levels around particularly spiky periods suggest the current smooth ALP is not managing climate variation
Current SF variation may be partly due to ALP smoothing suggesting EP2 will not necessarily be worse and could be better