1. Introduction to Theory
Its not as boring and useless as you might think

2. What is theory?
Not “ivory tower” BS that doesn’t apply to the “real world”
Quite to the contrary: Maahs’ cardinal rule of theory:
EVERY THEORY HAS A POLICY IMPLICATION
Corollary: Every policy implication is derived from a theory

3. Definition of a Theory
Set of statements that explain how and why concepts are related
In our case, what set of concepts explain crime?
Concept = abstract idea that can be measured or “operationalized”

4. How to recognize a good theory
Empirical Support
“Real world data” (observations)
Survey or Experiment
Other Criteria
Scope
Parsimony
A good theory explains a lot with a little

5. Micro and Macro Micro level theories Macro level theories
Why do some individuals have a higher probability of committing crimes than others?
Biology, psychology, but also sociology
Individual differences, but also environment
Macro level theories
Why do some aggregates have a higher crime rate than others?
Mostly sociology, mostly “culture” or “social structure”

6. Barkan Example Explaining Bulimia and Anorexia Disorders Macro Micro
Why “young women?” Why higher rates of these disorders in certain countries?
Barbie doll culture?
Micro
Why, even in countries with high rates of the disorder, do most young women not have the disorder?
Effective parenting, high self-esteem…

7. Establishing Causation
X (Cause) precedes Y (effect)
Causal ordering
X statistically related to Y
Correlation (need not be perfect)
Relationship is not “spurious”
How to rule out spuriousness?
Experimental Designs
Survey Research and Statistical Control

8. The Experimental Design
Group
Get “Treatment”
ALL SUBJECTS
RANDOM
ASSIGNMENT
MEASURE OUTCOME
Control Group
(Get “placebo”)

9. Statistical Control Barkan Example:
Survey reveals that “pimple saturation” related to “time spent listening to rock music”
What would you want to control for?
“HOLDING CONSTANT” or “INDEPENDENT OF”
Similar: Child abuse causes the abused kids to be violent themselves.

10. A Brief History of Criminological Theory
Prior to 1700s, no real theory
Humans as “depraved”
Classical School (1750s-late 1800s)
Age of enlightenment (Locke, Rousseau)
Humans as “enlightened” (rational, hedonistic)
Utilitarian Thinkers
Beccaria (Italian Economist) On Crime and Punishment
Bentham (England): focus on English justice system

11. What killed the Classical School?
The percieved failure of classical school reforms
Changing legal code did not “cure” crime
Development of physical sciences
Darwin, Galileo, Newton
There are cause-effect relationships that can be deduced from observation and manipulation
August Compte
Apply this logic to the study of human behavior

12. The Positive School 1900-Present Criticims of Positive School
Humans as “determined”
Determined by what?
Biology
Psychology
Sociology
Criticims of Positive School
Legal Definitions controlled by those in power
Overly “deterministic”
Criminals as “different” and “inferior”

13. Classical School II: Resurrection
Social Context of the 1970s
Perceived failure of rehabilitation
“Neo-classical” theory
Deterrence theory, Rational Choice theory, Routine Activities Theory
These theories still compete with “positive” theories today.