1. Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Crop/Feed Markets
Mobley Seminar
Ames, Iowa
August 31, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

3. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
92.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
153.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,914
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
940
Imports 14 8 30 20
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,185
13,874
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,140
5,000
4,900
Ethanol
3,709
4,568
5,020
5,100
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,371
1,400
1,410
Exports
1,849
1,987
1,825
1,750
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,245
13,160
Ending Stocks
910
714
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.25
6.70 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

5. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
230
Imports 13 15
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,301
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,645
1,635
Seed & Residual
106
110
125
111
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,495
1,400
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,265
3,146
Ending Stocks
155
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.35
13.50 5 5

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Crop Conditions
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

9. Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

10. Crop Conditions & Soybean Yields

11. U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
Production
(mil. lb.)
19,615
19,035
18,670
Beg. Stocks
2,861
3,406
2,816
Imports
103
175
185
Total Supply
22,578
22,616
21,671
Domestic
15,814
16,600
18,050
Methyl Ester
1,680
2,150
3,500
Exports
3,359
3,200
1,650
Total Use
19,173
19,800
19,700
Ending Stocks
1,971
Season-Average Price
(¢/lb.)
35.95
53.25
56.50
Source: USDA 11 11

12. Biodiesel Production
Source: DOE, EIA

13. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
Production
(thou. short tons)
41,707
39,608
38,885
Beg. Stocks
235
302
300
Imports
160
190
165
Total Supply
42,101
40,100
39,350
Domestic
30,640
30,750
30,500
Exports
11,160
9,050
8,550
Total Use
41,800
39,800
39,050
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/short ton)
311.27
345.00
370.00
Source: USDA 13 13

14. Soybean Meal Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

15. 2010 U.S. Soybean Meal Exports
Source: USDA, FAS

16. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 16 16

17. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 17 17

18. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

19. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

20. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 8/30/2011

21. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

22. Export Pace vs. Last Year
Source: USDA, FAS

23. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

24. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

25. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

26. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

27. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

28. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

29. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 29 29

30. Ethanol Margin
Source: CARD

31. Ethanol Blending Advantage

32. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE, EIA

33. Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE, EIA

34. U.S. DDG Supply and Use My estimates, so take with a grain of salt
2008
2009
2010
2011
Production
(mil. metric tons)
28.6
35.4
38.7
39.3
Imports
0.3
0.4
0.5
Total Supply
28.9
35.8
39.2
39.8
Domestic
23.9
27.5
30.3
30.4
Exports
5.0
8.3
8.9
9.5
Total Use
Average Price
($/ton)
122
113
179
189
My estimates, so take with a grain of salt
Actually, you may want the whole salt block 34 34

35. DDG Exports
Source: USDA

36. DDG Exports
Source: USDA

37. Supply vs. Demand
Corn
Soy

38. Supply vs. Demand
Corn
Soy

39. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

40. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

41. Corn Prices vs. Costs

42. Soybean Prices vs. Costs

43. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Debt limit, US credit rating
US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation
Supply/demand concerns
Prevented planting, flooding, heat wave, nighttime temps?
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.25, Soy $11.35
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70, Soy $13.50
Futures (as of 8/29/2011): Corn $7.42, Soy $14.00

44. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: