1. Rolling AQ
Review Group 177

2. Benefits Increased accuracy in allocation Reduction in filter failures
Reduces risk around RbD
Smoothing of workload through the year
Ability to react faster to consumer changes
Minimising step changes (1st October) helps reduce potential balancing costs
Reduces the differential between forecasts for balancing purposes and forecasts for total revenue
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3. An example impact
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4. What level of improvement would we see?
Assume current level of AQ with a scaling factor of 0.96% is overstating real AQ
Scaling factors away from 1 lead to a misallocation of energy between market sectors and increase RbD risk
1% reduction in AQ towards ‘actual consumption’ moves scaling factor towards 1 and leads to a 0.8% reduction in misallocation of energy
This would lead to
improved initial commodity
reduced reconciliation
reduced RbD risk for Shippers
faster Transportation certainty for Transporters
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