1. The census is not an equal opportunity enumeration!
THE PROBLEM
The census is not an equal opportunity enumeration!
Overcount (easier-to-count groups)
Non-Hispanic Whites
Homeowners (proxy for higher-income)
College students living away from home
Older people
Undercount (harder-to-count groups)
People of color; American Indians on reservations
Males
Young children (ages 0-4)
Renters (proxy for lower income), both urban and rural
Immigrant/LEP households

2. Differential undercount
THE CONSEQUENCES
National net undercount virtually zero in 2010
BUT −
Undercounts and overcounts don’t cancel each other out at local level
RESULT =
Differential undercount

3. THE CHALLENGE FOR 2020 Congressional directive: Census Bureau goals:
Keep 2020 Census cost at or below 2010 Census cost (~$13 billion)
Census Bureau goals:
Modernize census methods and operations
Contain costs
Maintain accuracy & data quality
Policy hurdles:
Insufficient and/or late annual funding
Potential riders: Efforts to exclude undocumented residents
Proposals to undermine the ACS through voluntary response or eliminate survey altogether
Post election effect: committee assignments, political dynamics, the unknown

4. THE RANGE OF POLICY ISSUES
Adequate funding
For 2020 Census planning, design, and operations
Revised race and ethnicity questions
Primary reliance on Internet response
Wide use of administrative records to build address list
Identify vacant housing, and possibly count some unresponsive households
Reduced "footprint" in the field
Fewer local offices and census takers
Final decision on where to count incarcerated persons (so-called Residence Criteria).

5. MOVING FORWARD Coordination Coordination Coordination Coordination
Issue Spotting As We Go
Field Outreach
Rapid Response
Communications
Training
What else?