1. Planning for climate change in nature reserve management plans
Ben Le Bas & Simon Duffield, Natural England

2. The challenge

3. The challenge
We did try for a demonstration purpose within the NERC Act but removed at one of the drafting stages

4. The challenge

5. The challenge

6. The challenge

7. Our approach Up to date, and updateable Consistent
Both national and local
Pragmatic
Efficient

8. Our approach 1. Projected Climate Change 2. Impacts
4. Responses
3. Vulnerability Assessment
2. Impacts
1. Projected Climate Change

9. Step 1: What climate change?
Which scenario?
What duration?

10. Step 2: Projected impacts

11. Step 3: Vulnerability assessment
Feature name
Temperature
Rainfall
Extreme Events
In Combination
Confidence
Eutrophic Standing Open Water
Aggregation of non-breeding species
Water vole
Landscape - glacial hummocks and ridges
Archaeological & historical features
Economic use
Community involvement
Education
Research
Demonstration
Public access
Estate assets
Feature name
Temperature
Rainfall
Extreme Events
In Combination
Confidence
Eutrophic Standing Open Water L M H
Aggregation of non-breeding species
Water vole
Landscape - glacial hummocks and ridges
Archaeological & historical features
Economic use
Community involvement
Education
Research
Demonstration
Public access
Estate assets
Key NNR features
Main elements of climate change
Record the confidence you have in the assessment, based on the available information and your understanding of the reserve

12. Step 3: Response

13. Aqualate Mere NNR

14. Aqualate Mere NNR Feature name Rainfall Temperature Extreme Events
In combination
Reasoning
Confidence
Eutrophic Standing Open Water H
Mere already suffers from Algal Blooms. Temperature Increase would cause larger algal bloom events
Aggregation of non-breeding species L M
Passage Shoveler etc Wildfowl winter populations may decline as the birds winter further north in response to winter warming. However Increased winter temperature is likely to increase the overwinter survival rate
Dystrophic standing open water
Drought events would affect this area
M22/M23 fen/rush pasture
Water dependent habitat, Increased temp, leading to drought would be very detreimental. Increased flooding would prevent essential management activities taking place
M27 mire, S4/S22 swamp/reed bed
Water dependent habitat, Increased temp, leading to drought would be very detreimental. Increased flooding would prevent essential management activities taking place.
Common otter
Reduced water levels would adversely affect mammals such as water voles, otters
Water vole
Assemblage of breeding waders
Reduced soil moisture could adversely influence breeding success or survival rates of ground-feeding bird species, particularly those which feed on invertebrates whose abundance is influenced by soil moisture or those that require moist, easily penetrable soils to get food.
Invertebrate assemblage: Coleoptera
Quaternary geology
W6 alder woodland
Reduced water levels may impact of tree growth. Stressed trees more susceptible to pests and diseases.
Breeding grey heron
Drought may impact Fish populations
Breeding bird assemblage
Species dependent, some may be unaffected, some new species may even start breeding here. Earlier spring may impact on inverterbrate availability for chicks. Summer flooding is already affecting breeding birds in the reedbed e.g. Reed warblers.
Bat populations
Direct links have been found between summer precipitation and survival of bat species, with higher precipitation associated with greater insect abundance and drier springs and summers having a negative effect on population numbers Warmer winter will mean reduced hibernation period

15. Martin Down NNR

16. Martin Down NNR

17. Teesmouth NNR

18. Teesmouth NNR

19. Responses Examples from the adaptation manual
Manage veteran trees to reduce the crown to root ratio, and improve protection for individual veteran trees
In treeless river reaches, optimise riparian tree cover to provide patchy light and shade. This provides the best mosaic of biotopes, an ample supply of woody debris and leaf litter, and provides buffering against rising water temperatures, shading the water and lowering temperature on sunny days.
The isolated nature of flushes means that the translocation of species from other sites may be a viable adaptation option where natural colonisation is unlikely.
Encourage structural diversity within areas of blanket bog by, for example, adjusting grazing levels and using a range of species, breeds, ages and sizes of animal.

20. And at the site level…

21. Conclusions
A simple approach combining skills of local and national staff
More information required eg species
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