1. Basic Risk Assessment Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G.,
Wilkinson, B., (2011)
Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resource CD Rom, De Montfort University

2. Risk Assessment A continuous and dynamic process Fairness and balance
Informing risk management
Engaging and involving the offender
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

3. Purpose of OASys Assess likelihood of reoffending.
To identify and classify offending-related needs.
To assess risk of serious harm, risk to the individual and other risks.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

4. Purpose of OASys
To assist with the management of risk of serious harm.
To link the assessment to the sentence plan.
To indicate the need for further specialist assessments.
To measure change during the offender's sentence.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

5. Structured Professional Judgment
Systematic evidence based actuarial and professional assessments
Of the offender and their behaviour in context.
Requires the use of knowledge and skills,
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

6. Offending Information
Case ID
Offending Information
OGRS
Attitudes
Accommodation
Thinking
Behaviour
ETE
Offending
behaviour
Emotional
Well being
Finances
Alcohol
Misuse
Relationships
Drug
Misuse
Lifestyle
Associates
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

7. Estimating the Likelihood of Further Offending
The Offender Group Reconviction Score OGRS3 - static risk information
Two further scores - 60% static and 40% dynamic risk factors:
OASys General Predictor Score (OGP) predicts the likelihood of non sexual, non violent offences.
OASYs Violence Predictor Score (OVP) predicts the likelihood of violent type offences.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

8. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

9. OASys including Risk of Serious Harm Full assessment Risk
Management Plan
Supervision and
Sentence Planning
Review
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

10. The Quality of Assessments
An investigative approach is adopted, actively seeking information.
Information is verified wherever possible.
Clear distinctions are drawn between fact and opinion.
Opinions clearly derive from the evidence.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

11. Analyses Persists Self aware Decision Making Organised Communicates
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

12. Understanding the Significance of Information
What
does the information mean
is the reliability of the source
does it tell me about the pattern of offending
does it tell me about triggers and circumstance?
Is there any evidence that risk is escalating?
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

13. The ‘Lens’ Model RISK FACTORS What we know What we know
Historical
Personal
Environmental
What we know
about all violent
offenders
What we know
about this
offender
RISK JUDGEMENTS
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

14. Walking Through the Offence
Thinking
Feeling
Behaving
Means
Opportunities
Victims
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

15. Kemshall, H. , Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

16. Readiness to change Costs Benefits Costs Benefits
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

17. "the same cognitive factors that are likely to influence treatment readiness are also themselves likely to be targets for change in treatment" [Chambers, 2008, p. 282]
e.g. Assuming hostility in others a distortion among many violent offenders is also likely to affect their ability to trust and engage with practitioners and any treatment services.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

18. ? Questions Socratic Reasons and evidence Perspectives Consequences
Why
Reasons and evidence
Perspectives
Consequences
Attitudes and beliefs
What ?
When
Where
Who
How
Assumptive – use with care.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

19. Denial Behaviour Responsibility Impact Rationalising justifying
Offending no longer a problem
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

20. Denial or Excuses Strategies for the Assessor
Excuses - helping identify risk factors.
Be alert for external attributions being made and their likely impact on harmful behaviour.
Underlying ways of thinking about the world that affect the offender and not just the offending behaviour
Consider with the offender, taking active responsibility for changing the future, rather than simply acknowledging past faults.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

21. Assessing and Planning Using the Good Lives Model
Identify risk factors
What are they hoping to achieve through offending? (Primary Goods)
Identify pro-social strengths
Identify pro-social ways of achieving goods
Consider external realties
Create plan
Adapted from Ward and Maruna 2007
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

22. Transition to Adult System
When working with younger offenders do you
Break up the interview into manageable chunks?
Be careful to explain the process clearly and regularly check out their understanding of it?
Use a range of methods other than just asking questions to engage the offender in the process?
Allow more time to explore their situation and how they understand the world.?
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

23. Consider
The extent to which the offender has already caused serious harm - frequency and escalation
Diversity of offences and offending behaviour;
Triggers and situations associated with harmful behaviour do they still exist?
Are opportunities for harmful acts increasing or decreasing?
The offenders insight into their offending and the harm that they have caused
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

24. Consider Idiosyncratic or aggravating factors including use of weapons
The offenders attitude to victims, or victim groups
Relevant information about victims.
The offender's motivation to commit further offences.
The offender's motivation and ability to change.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

25. Good Practice Suggestions
Appropriate weight given to OGP, OVP and to OGRs
When an assessor judges that a score is an under, or overestimate, the reasons clearly recorded in OASYs.
Assessors should seek to include all relevant information in OASys, a range of past and present behaviours, not just the current offence.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

26. Good Practice Suggestions
An OASys should include a clear narrative account of the offence history.
Decisions based on a full range of risk factors.
Pay closer attention to the situation and context within which offending occurs
Include protective factors as well as risks.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

27. An Offence Protective/ Strengths Individual Situational
e.g. Insight, Motivation
pro-social skills
e.g. Pro-social influences
Employment
Offending
Reducing
An Offence
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
Triggers / Acute
e.g. increasing substance misuse , collapse of social supports, disengagement , changes in mental health, particular situations
Predisposing
Supporting
Offending
Individual
Situational
e.g. Attitudes , patterns of
Thinking and behaviour
e.g. offending opportunities
Pro-offending peers
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

28. Contingencies – Scenario Planning
A range of possible future scenarios - what has this offender done before?
Avoid false assumptions, what might change? (Victim, Location, Other)
Scenarios for each of the changes. What might happen, think about the potential for escalation.
Discount similar scenarios and the unbelievable. Identify any new triggers or risk factors to be alert to.
How would this affect your risk management?
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

29. Likelihood Impact Imminence Balanced Risk Judgements
Over estimating
risk
Under estimating
risk
Balanced Risk Judgements
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

30. = + + Offence Offender Victim Circumstances Scott
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

31. Progressive Dangerousness To create opportunities
Actively seeking
To create opportunities
Seeking out opportunities
Attitudes and beliefs
The chance one off
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

32. Victim Blaming Licence
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

33. Levels of Risk Low Medium
Current evidence does not indicate likelihood of serious harm
Medium
There are identifiable indicators of risk of serious harm the offender has the potential to cause serious harm but unlikely to do so unless there is a change in circumstances, for example failure to take medication, loss of accommodation, relationship breakdown, drug or alcohol misuse
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

34. Levels of Risk High Very High
There are identifiable indicators of risk of serious harm potential The potential event could happen at any time and the impact would be serious
Very High
There is an imminent risk of serious harm. The potential event is more likely than not to happen imminently and the impact would be serious
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

35. 4 Tier Framework 1 3 4 2 Control Change Help Punish Increasing
Resource
Allocation In
Tiers
Change
Help
Punish
Increasing complexity sentence and risk
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University