1. Assessing Likelihood of Development in Countywide Corridors
presented to
Fauquier County Department of Community Planning
presented by UVA Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems
August 27, 2007

2. This presentation reports a current research effort of The University of Virginia’s Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems in support of Virginia Department of Transportation

3. Overview Motivation Problem Statement Methodology Case Study
Discussion
Questions

4. Motivation Emphasis on transportation/land-use interaction
Rising ROW cost
Significant uncertainty surrounding development
VDOT must anticipate future development in corridors and take timely action: Corridor Protection
Over 9000 miles of interstate and primary roads in VA

5. VDOT Problem Statement
Develop a repeatable, GIS-based methodology
to identify and prioritize at-risk countywide corridors
in need of corridor protection strategies.
Demonstrate the methodology in
Fauquier, VA.

6. Granting too much access Disrupting land owners
Early Efforts
Literature Review
Corridor Protection
Access Management
Early ROW Acquisition
Network Design
What needs to
be ‘protected’ ?
Identification
Prioritization
Risks of Failure
Granting too much access
Increasing cost of ROW
Disrupting land owners
Over-planning

7. Early Efforts Steering Committee Meeting, 2/6/2007
Fauquier Planning Department
Rappahannock Rapidan Regional Commission
Fauquier Chamber of Commerce
VDOT Transportation and Mobility Division (TMPD)
Meeting with Fauquier County Planning Dept, 3/12/2007
Corridor identification
Acquisition of GIS layers

8. Early Efforts VDOT TMPD, 3/28/2007 HIGH RISK Population Centers
LOW RISK
Public land
Wetlands
Conservation
Easements
Ag and Forestal
Districts
HIGH RISK
Population
Centers
Employment
Utilities
Vacant Land
Undervalued
Land
Transportation

9. Suitability Analysis

10. Ian McHarg
landscape architecture, urban and regional planning, and ecological design

11. Suitability Analysis

12. Applications of Suitability Analysis
UPLAN: A Versatile Urban Growth Model for Transportation Planning (Johnston and Shabazian, 2002)
Characterizing urban land capacity (Landis, 2001)
Smart Land-Use Analysis: The LUCIS Model (Zwick and Carr, 2007)
An approach for greenway suitability analysis (Miller et al., 1998)
Forecasting exurban development to evaluate the influence of land use policies on wildland and farmland conservation (Merenlender et al., 2005)

13. Assessing Likelihood of Development in Countywide Corridors Fauquier County, VA

14. Statewide Overview

15. Fauquier County Overview
Beyond D.C. suburbs
Rural character
Service Districts
Six major corridors

16. Fauquier Corridors

17. Fauquier Parcels
32,000 Parcels

18. Suitability Analysis Step 1 – Identify Indicators A – Low-risk parcels
B – Parcels near major corridors
C – Parcels near intersections of major corridors
D – Parcels near population centers
E – Parcels near employment centers
Step 2 – Normalize Indicators
Step 3 – Weight and Combine Indicators
Step 4 – Analyze Results

19. Step 1A Identify Low Risk Parcels

20. Identify Low Risk Parcels
Conservation
Easements
Parks and
Schools
Agricultural and
Forestal Districts
Low Risk Parcels
Source: Fauquier County Department of Community Development; VDOT TPMD

21. Step 1B Identify Parcels Near Major Corridors

22. Identify Parcels Near Major Corridors

23. Identify Parcels Near Major Corridors

24. Identify Parcels Near Major Corridors

25. Step 1C Identify Parcels Near Intersections of Major Corridors

26. Raster Algebra

27. What’s a raster?
Raster
Vector

28. Sample Raster Algebra 3 3 + 3 3 3 3 3 6 = 3

29. Identify Parcels Near Intersections of Major Corridors

30. Step 1D Identify Parcels Near Population Centers

31. Identify Parcels Near Population Centers

32. Identify Parcels Near Population Centers
Source: 2000 US Census

33. Identify Parcels Near Population Centers

34. Identify Parcels Near Population Centers

35. Identify Parcels Near Population Centers

36. Identify Parcels Near Population Centers

37. Step 1E Identify Parcels Near Employment Centers

38. Identify Parcels Near Employment Centers

39. Identify Parcels Near Employment Centers
2,375
17,500
150 30 5
Employees
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, 2006

40. Identify Parcels Near Employment Centers

41. Identify Parcels Near Employment Centers

42. Identify Parcels Near Employment Centers

43. Identify Parcels Near Employment Centers

44. Step 2 Normalize Indicators

45. Raster Algebra, Reclassification3  1 2 3 3 3
3  2
0  1

46. Normalize Indicators: Distance

47. Normalize Indicators: Intersections

48. Normalize Indicators: Population Centers

49. Normalize Indicators: Employment Centers

50. Normalize Indicators: Low Risk Parcels

51. Step 3 Weight and Combine Indicators

52. Sample Raster Algebra 3 3 + 3 3 3 3 3
x 1/3
x 2/3 1 = 1 2 2 3 1

53. Weight and Combine Indicatorsx +

54. Weight and Combine Indicators

55. Step 4 Analyze Results

56. Analyze Results
US-211
US-17
US-29
US-28
PR-50
I-66R

57. Analyze Results

58. Analyze Results

59. Analyze Results Field visits
Context sensitive corridor protection strategies

60. Discussion Pros Easy to implement Data readily available
Visual, easily understandable
Cons
Not a calibrated model
Weights are subjective
Results are relative; index is unitless

61. Future Work Allocate likelihood of development by land use
Account for developed and vacant land
Incorporate property assessment data
Vary the results by changing the weights
Conduct additional analysis of results

62. Contributions
Process for risk assessment  and management in planning transportation corridors
Synthesis of available literature
Collection and evaluation of relevant databases
Demonstration of the Fauquier Case Study
Recommendations for risk mitigation for transportation agencies

63. Questions and Discussion