1. Pre-supernova mass-loss predictions for massive stars
Jorick Vink (Keele University)

2. Outline Introduction Mass loss predictions OB & WR - f(Z)
Mass loss predictions OB & LBV - f(T)
Radio SNe with variable CSM
Summary

3. Evolution of a Massive Star

4. Radiation-driven wind by Lines
Lucy & Solomon (1970)
Castor, Abbott & Klein (1975) = CAK
Wind
STAR Fe
dM/dt = f (Z, L, M, Teff)

5. Radiation-driven wind by Lines
Abbott & Lucy (1985)
dM/dt = f (Z, L, M, Teff)

6. OB Mass loss parameter study

7. Wind momenta for Galactic O stars
Models
Vink, de Koter & Lamers (2000)

8. Vink et al. (2001) Mokiem et al. (2007)
Wind momenta at low Z
Data (Mokiem)
Models (Vink)
Vink et al. (2001) Mokiem et al. (2007)

9. Which element drives WR winds?
- Fe  WR mass loss depends on Z host
- C  it does NOT depend on Z host

10. Z-dependence of WR windsWN WC
Vink & de Koter (2005, A&A 442, 587)

11. This is a gif file
Lamers et al. (1995), Crowther et al. (2006) Vink et al. (1999): Fe IV III

12. Stars should pass the bistable limit
During evolution from O  B
LBVs on timescales of years

13. LBVs in the HRD
Smith, Vink & de Koter (2004)

14. The mass loss of LBVs Stahl et al. (2001) Vink & de Koter (2002)
Models
Data
Stahl et al. (2001) Vink & de Koter (2002)

15. Stars should pass the bistable limit
During evolution from O  B
LBVs on timescales of years
Implications for circumstellar medium (CSM)
Mass-loss rate up ~ 2
wind velocity down ~ 2
CSM density variations ~ 4

16. Radio Supernovae
S=Flux
SN Ic 1990B
Weiler et al. (2000)
Time

17. SN-CSM interaction  radio
Weiler et al. (2002)

18. Mass Loss Results from Radio SNe
OB star? WR?

19. CSM: a constant mass-loss rate
Wind
Density
Radius

20. CSM: a varying LBV mass-loss rate
Wind
Density
Radius

21. The Radio SN 2001ig
Ryder et al. (2004)

22. The Radio SN 2001ig
Ryder et al. (2004)
 t = 150 days

23. Predicted period AGB star  w = 10 km/s  Period = 50 years
Ryder et al. (2004)
AGB star  w = 10 km/s  Period = 50 years

24. Predicted period AGB star  w = 10 km/s  Period = 50 years
Ryder et al. (2004)
AGB star  w = 10 km/s  Period = 50 years
LBV  w = 100 km/s  Period = 5 years !
Kotak & Vink (2006)

25. WR Binary Pinwheel nebulae?
Tuthill et al. (1999)
But……

26. 2003bg: the twin of 2001ig
2003bg ,
2001ig
Soderberg et al.
(2006)

27. Progenitors
AGB star
Binary WR system
WR star
LBV b

28. Progenitors AGB star Binary WR system WR star LBV Kotak & Vink (2006)

29. Speculation on Radio SNe that show sinusoidal variations
H-rich H-poor
OB/RSG  LBV  WR
SN II  ?  Ibc

30. Summary Monte Carlo mass loss predictions successful:
 OB & WR stars as a function of Z
 The bistability jump between O and B
 LBV mass loss variability
Radio SNe with (quasi)-sinusoidal modulations may have LBV progenitors

32. The bi-stability Jump HOT Fe IV low dM/dt high V(inf) Low density COOL
Fe III
dM/dt = 5 dM/dt HOT
V(inf) = ½ vinf HOT
High density = 10 HOT