1. Forecast of Food Farming and Fertilizer Use
The EFMA Forecast
Forecast of Food Farming and Fertilizer Use
October 03

2. The EFMA forecast : Agenda : The methodology for the EFMA forecast :
The objectives.
The principles.
Assumptions and scenario :
Global economic trends.
The European scenario.
The national approach.
The 2003/2013 forecast
October 03

3. The objectives, principles and main stages
The EFMA forecast :
The objectives, principles and main stages
October 03

4. The EFMA forecast : Objectives & principles.
Long term consumption forecast : Parallel and convergent with sales forecast (ISC) :
>> Convergence by year n-3.
A « down-up » procedure, step by step :
Per country.
Crop acreage forecast, considering :
Global and European Agro-economic trends.
Agricultural policies.
Application rate forecast, considering :
Evolution of technologies and agricultural practices.
Environmental policies.
Short term to long term forecast :
Campaigns : n-1/n, n/n+1, n+4/n+5, n+9/n+10
Based on « scenarios for the future » :
General trends, global and European.
National projections.
October 03

5. The EFMA forecast : various stages of the process : an expert approach
1/ Building a scenario : March
The « European context », prepared by the leader of the WG :
Agro-economic series & trends, world & Europe.
Agricultural & Environmental policies.
The EFMA scenario for a European agriculture. >> The impact on fertilizer use, as foreseen by the forecast WG.
2/ Adapting the EFMA scenario to national level. May
The impact of national situation and policies >> the « country report ».
3/ Making the national forecast May- June
4/ Finalizing the European approach. June
Critical approach of the forecast WG on each national scenario.
5/ Finalizing the European forecast : integration of all nationals. July
6/ Publishing and circulating the forecast September
October 03

6. The national approach : developing the expertise
The EFMA forecast :
The national approach : developing the expertise
October 03

7. The EFMA forecast : Crop needs (- nutrients from other sources).
The national approach.
Sources of information for Application rate :
Crop needs (- nutrients from other sources).
Advisory service, consultants.
Publications (scientific, “Farmers weekly”).
Your control calculation.
Watch “other nutrient sources” (national budget!) :
farmyard manure, slurry
sewage sludge
others
efficiency
October 03

8. The EFMA forecast : Statistical yearbook. The national approach.
Sources of information for Crop area planted :
Statistical yearbook.
Newspapers, journals, etc…
News agencies e.g. Agra Europe.
press releases : - Ministry of Agriculture.
- Growers associations. - Newspaper / journal for merchants. - International produce traders. - Plant breeders / -associations.
October 03

9. The EFMA forecast : Implementation of EU-rules and –programmes.
The national approach.
Sources of information for Environmental policy :
Implementation of EU-rules and –programmes.
National programmes.
National / regional limitations.
points of discussion (conferences, media).
Intensity of discussions (conferences, media).
Direct contacts (ministry, n.g.o., administration).
October 03

10. The EFMA forecast : Agriculture does not jump ! The national approach.
Some bits of experience :
Agriculture does not jump !
Watch out for crucial political decisions.
Never believe just one source …
Regular amendments of the set of data lead to
a stable and reliable base.
You are the best one to judge and to decide !
Accept that you can’t be right !
October 03

11. Assumptions and scenario
The EFMA forecast :
Assumptions and scenario
October 03

12. The EFMA forecast :
October 03

13. The EFMA forecast : EU 15 The EU is expected to increase its market
share slightly, from 7.5% to 11.1% over
the projection period. The devaluation of
the Argentine peso – along with low
domestic demand – increases Argentine
market share. It climbs from 11.3% in
2002/03, to 13.2% by 2012/13. With
recovery in production, Australian and
Canadian market shares are projected to
increase to their former levels over the
next ten years.
EU 15
October 03

14. The EFMA forecast : In 2003/04, a slight decrease in wheat area is
projected because of lower gross returns from
the grains to oilseeds payment ratio. From
2003/04 on, most of the production increase is
projected to come from yield growth, as only
limited area substitutions are expected. By
2012/13, the EU produces mmt. Feed
use increases to 56.7 mmt in 2012/13.
Domestic price remains below world price for
2003/04, allowing the EU to export without
subsidy, though in the middle of the
projection period domestic price exceeds
world price. By 2012/13, EU exports reach 11.5 mmt.
October 03

15. The EFMA forecast :
The reforms of Agenda 2000 lower internal grain prices early in the projections. With a relatively weak euro assumed, the European Union (EU) exports wheat without subsidy through 2011.
Fueling EU exports through 2011 are an assumed decline in the crop area set-aside rate, limited cropping alternatives to wheat, abundant wheat stocks, and a favorable exchange rate.
The EU share of world wheat trade increases from 14.5 percent in 2002 to 21 percent by
As wheat stocks decline due to increased domestic feeding and accelerating exports, pressure to maintain EU land set-aside requirements diminishes. Strong producer pressure is expected to result in lower set- aside requirements midway through the period. As a result, the EU is able to produce and export more grain.
October 03

16. The EFMA forecast : World oilseed prices climbed strongly in
2002/03 as demand grew faster than
supply. Soybean prices are expected to
weaken next year under the pressure of
record supplies. High oil demand boosted
sunflower prices in 2002/03 despite an
expansion of world production. The
continued decline in rapeseed production
caused rapeseed prices to increase for the
third straight year. In the long-run, all
oilseed prices are expected to return to
their historic relationships.
October 03

17. The EFMA forecast : EU 15 Fueled by yield growth and a meager
demand increase, the EU increases its net
exports of barley to 8.4 mmt in 2012/13.
Australia recovers its production and
exports in 2003/04, reaching 3.5 mmt of
net exports in 2012/13. With recovery in
yields and area, Canada increases its
barley exports in the beginning of the
projection period, while this growth is
reversed later because of increasing
domestic feed demand.
EU 15
October 03

18. The EFMA forecast :
EU 15
October 03

19. The EFMA forecast :
EU 25 CAP Reform
E U prospects
October 03

20. The EFMA forecast :
October 03

21. The EFMA forecast :
October 03

22. Scenario for the forecast
A transition year for the forecast exercise :
EU 15 and EEC 10 still separated.
Crop based approach used for 4 EEC countries :
Poland, Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia.
New CAP reform included with a temporary scenario :
Full decoupling :(single payment per ha, whatever crop is grown)
but limited : safety net of the intervention price.
Options of implementation :
Animal production : partial decoupling except UK and Sweden.
Arable crops : full decoupling except France and Spain.
Cross compliance :
(stricter implementation of environmental regulations)
>> only slight additional impact on N application rate to be expected.
October 03

23. CAP reform The 26th June compromise :
Single payment (“full decoupling”), is the basis.
Nevertheless, possible flexibility :
Partial decoupling possible, but :
Only France and Spain may choose this option.
The administrative burden will be a big constraint.
Delay of implementation possible (till 2007).
>> Negative impact on fertilizer :
- Increase of voluntary set aside in less favoured areas. - Cereal area is likely to decrease.
Set aside policy continuing as in Agenda 2000.
Set aside lands kept in the rotation.
Possibility to grow non food crops.
>> Neutral impact on fertilizer :
No further impact of the set aside policy.
October 03

24. CAP reform The negative impact on N consumption will come from :
Full decoupling :
(single payment per ha, whatever crop is grown)
>> decrease of COPs area, crops with high application rate.
but limited : safety net of the intervention price.
Cross compliance :
(stricter implementation of environmental regulations)
>> slight decrease of N application rate to be expected.
Expected decrease of N consumption in 2010 :
In addition to the negative trend already foreseen (- 7.5% in 2002)
Between 1 and 2% of present EU 15 N consumption.
Between 100 and 175 kT of N.
>> it corresponds to the “best case” assessed in January
October 03

25. The EFMA forecast :
The 2003/2013 Forecast
October 03

26. Fertilizer nutrient consumption in the European Union
October 03

27. Forecast changes in regional fertilizer use: 2012/2013 based on average 2000-2003.
October 03

28. Forecast changes in farming food crops : 2012/2013 based on average 2000-2003.
October 03

29. Forecast changes in fertilizer use by crop: 2012/2013 based on average 2000-2003.
October 03

30. Fertilizer use in the European Union
October 03

31. Mineral nitrogen efficiency
October 03

32. Fertilizer use in the 10 candidate countries.
October 03

33. Methodology developed for candidates
The EFMA forecast :
Methodology developed for candidates
October 03

34. Poland Total cereal area
The EFMA forecast :
Poland Total cereal area
October 03

35. Poland Nitrogen / yield ratio
The EFMA forecast :
Poland Nitrogen / yield ratio
Correction
Correction
October 03

36. Poland Nitrogen consumption
The EFMA forecast :
Poland Nitrogen consumption
1050 kt
October 03