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Hindsight Bias Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. “I knew it all along” “Hindsight is 20/20”
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Overconfidence Think we know more than we do!
Together with hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate our intuition
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The Scientific Attitude
Three main components Curious eagerness Skeptically scrutinize competing ideas Open-minded humility before nature
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Critical Thinking Critical Thinking: Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments & conclusions. “Smart thinking” Four elements: Examines assumptions Discerns hidden values Evaluates evidence Assesses conclusions
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The Scientific Theory Theory = A mere “hunch”
Scientific theory = Observations Scientific theory = explains through an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events.
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The Scientific Method Evaluates competing ideas with careful observations & rigorous analysis to describe and explain human nature. Observations Problem Hypothesis Experiment Data Conclusion Replication
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Observations Information about the problem.
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Problem Question based upon observations.
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Hypothesis A statement of relationship between or among variable.
A suggested solution to the problem. If…Then…
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Experiment A procedure to test the hypothesis.
Control – experiment without the variable Variable – factor being tested
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Data Results of the experiment.
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Conclusion The answer to the hypothesis.
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Replicate In order to verify the results, experiments must be retested. Operational definitions
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A good theory is useful if it:
The Scientific Method A good theory is useful if it: Effectively organizes a range of self-reports and observations Implies clear predictions that anyone can use to check the theory
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Observation Gathering of information by simply watching subjects
Can lead to bias
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Bias A factor unfairly increases a researcher reaching a particular conclusion
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Researcher Bias Notice evidence which supports one point of view or hypothesis. Objectivity tends to reduce bias.
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Participant Bias Subjects respond in ways they believe the researcher wants them to behave Know they are being observed Naturalistic Observation
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Naturalistic Observation
Observing & recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation. Unaware they are being watched
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Case Study Observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles. Very open to bias… Why?
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Correlational Study Determines the degree to which two variables are related to one another… Correlation Coefficient: a statistical index of the relationship between two things (from -1 to +1).
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Positive Correlation Value of 1 variable increases (or decreases) so does the value of the other variable.
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Negative Correlation Value of 1 variable increases, the value of the other variable decreases.
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Zero Correlation There is no relationship whatsoever between the two variables.
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Correlational Study Don’t imply a cause and effect relationship
Doesn’t determine why 2 variables are related-- Helpful in making predictions.
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Survey Method Relies on self-reports: questionnaires, interviews, and surveys. Efficient and inexpensive
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Population Random Sample
The total group being studied from which a sample is drawn. Random Sample Represents a population fairly: Equal chance of being included. If it is not random it is said to be biased.
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Independent Variable vs.
Causes something to happen Manipulated by the experimenter Should change the dependent variable Effected by independent variable Outcome of experiment Variable being measured
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Control Group Not exposed to the independent variable
Results are compared to those of the experimental group
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Blind procedure Participants are ignorant (blind) to the expected outcome of the experiment Single blind procedure Double blind procedure?
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Placebo Non-active substance or condition instead of a drug or active agent Given to the control group
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Placebo Effect Video Time…
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Longitudinal Study Study same group of individuals many years
Very expensive and difficult to conduct
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Cross-Sectional Study
Simultaneously study subjects from different age groups Cheaper, easier Differences may be due to factors other than development
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Longitudinal/Cross Sectional Study
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Ethics: Human Research (4 Basic Principles)
Module 2: Research Strategies Ethics: Human Research (4 Basic Principles)
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2. Right to be Protected from Harm/Discomfort
1. Informed Consent General nature of the research Any potential risks Refuse participation or withdraw 2. Right to be Protected from Harm/Discomfort Conducted under certain circumstances Only with the informed consent
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3. Right of Confidentiality
Individual data about participants should never be discussed or released. 4. Right to Debriefing Receive complete explanation of research at end of the study. Important if research involves deception.
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Reasons for Animal Research
Interest in animal behavior Data may apply to humans Easier due to the shorter life span Easier to control Not ethical to perform on humans
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Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life
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Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency
Central Tendency = a single score that represents a whole set of scores.
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Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency
Mean = the average of a distribution, obtained by adding the scores and then dividing by the # of scores.
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Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency
Median = the middle score in a distribution, half the scores are above it and half are below it.
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Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency
Mode = the most frequently occurring score(s) in a distribution
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Describing Data Measures of Variability
Range = the difference between the highest and lowest score in a distribution. Standard Deviation= a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score.
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Describing Data Measures of Variability
Normal Curve (bell shaped)
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= a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that describes the distribution of many types of data; most scored fall near the mean (68 percent fall within one standard deviation of it) and fewer and fewer near the extremes.
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Making Inferences When Is an Observed Difference Reliable?
Representative samples are better than biased samples Less-variable observations are more reliable than those that are more variable More cases are better than fewer
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Making Inferences When Is a Difference Significant?
Statistical significance The averages are reliable The differences between averages is relatively large Does imply the importance of the results
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The End
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