1. Pemeriksaan Sisa dan Data Berpengaruh Pertemuan 17
Matakuliah : I0174 – Analisis Regresi
Tahun : Ganjil 2007/2008
Pemeriksaan Sisa dan Data Berpengaruh Pertemuan 17

2. Pemeriksaan Sisa dan Data Berpengaruh
Kekurang Cocokan
Gunanya Pemeriksaan Sisa
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3. Chapter Topics The Multiple Regression Model Residual Analysis
Testing for the Significance of the Regression Model
Inferences on the Population Regression Coefficients
Testing Portions of the Multiple Regression Model
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4. The Multiple Regression Model
Relationship between 1 dependent & 2 or more independent variables is a linear function
Population Y-intercept
Population slopes
Random error
Dependent (Response) variable
Independent (Explanatory) variables
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5. Multiple Regression Model
Bivariate model
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6. Multiple Regression Equation
Bivariate model
Multiple Regression Equation
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7. Multiple Regression Equation
Too complicated by hand!
Ouch!
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8. Interpretation of Estimated Coefficients
Slope (bj )
Estimated that the average value of Y changes by bj for each 1 unit increase in Xj , holding all other variables constant (ceterus paribus)
Example: If b1 = -2, then fuel oil usage (Y) is expected to decrease by an estimated 2 gallons for each 1 degree increase in temperature (X1), given the inches of insulation (X2)
Y-Intercept (b0)
The estimated average value of Y when all Xj = 0
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9. Multiple Regression Model: Example
(0F)
Develop a model for estimating heating oil used for a single family home in the month of January, based on average temperature and amount of insulation in inches.
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10. Multiple Regression Equation: Example
Excel Output
For each degree increase in temperature, the estimated average amount of heating oil used is decreased by gallons, holding insulation constant.
For each increase in one inch of insulation, the estimated average use of heating oil is decreased by gallons, holding temperature constant.
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11. Venn Diagrams and Explanatory Power of Regression
Variations in Oil explained by the error term
Variations in Temp not used in explaining variation in Oil
Oil
Variations in Oil explained by Temp or variations in Temp used in explaining variation in Oil
Temp
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12. Venn Diagrams and Explanatory Power of Regression
(continued)
Oil
Temp
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13. Venn Diagrams and Explanatory Power of Regression
Variation NOT explained by Temp nor Insulation
Overlapping variation in both Temp and Insulation are used in explaining the variation in Oil but NOT in the estimation of nor
Oil
Temp
Insulation
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14. Coefficient of Multiple Determination
Proportion of Total Variation in Y Explained by All X Variables Taken Together
Never Decreases When a New X Variable is Added to Model
Disadvantage when comparing among models
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15. Venn Diagrams and Explanatory Power of Regression
Oil
Temp
Insulation
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16. Adjusted Coefficient of Multiple Determination
Proportion of Variation in Y Explained by All the X Variables Adjusted for the Sample Size and the Number of X Variables Used
Penalizes excessive use of independent variables
Smaller than
Useful in comparing among models
Can decrease if an insignificant new X variable is added to the model
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17. Coefficient of Multiple Determination
Excel Output
Adjusted r2
reflects the number of explanatory variables and sample size
is smaller than r2
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18. Interpretation of Coefficient of Multiple Determination
96.56% of the total variation in heating oil can be explained by temperature and amount of insulation
95.99% of the total fluctuation in heating oil can be explained by temperature and amount of insulation after adjusting for the number of explanatory variables and sample size
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19. Simple and Multiple Regression Compared
The slope coefficient in a simple regression picks up the impact of the independent variable plus the impacts of other variables that are excluded from the model, but are correlated with the included independent variable and the dependent variable
Coefficients in a multiple regression net out the impacts of other variables in the equation
Hence, they are called the net regression coefficients
They still pick up the effects of other variables that are excluded from the model, but are correlated with the included independent variables and the dependent variable
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20. Simple and Multiple Regression Compared: Example
Two Simple Regressions:
Multiple Regression:
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21. Simple and Multiple Regression Compared: Slope Coefficients
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22. Simple and Multiple Regression Compared: r2=
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23. Example: Adjusted r2 Can Decrease
Adjusted r 2 decreases when
k increases from 2 to 3
Color is not useful in explaining the variation in oil consumption.
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24. Using the Regression Equation to Make Predictions
Predict the amount of heating oil used for a home if the average temperature is 300 and the insulation is 6 inches.
The predicted heating oil used is gallons.
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25. Predictions in PHStat PHStat | Regression | Multiple Regression …
Check the “Confidence and Prediction Interval Estimate” box
Excel spreadsheet for the heating oil example
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26. Residual Plots Residuals Vs Residuals Vs Time
May need to transform Y variable
May need to transform variable
May need to transform variable
Residuals Vs Time
May have autocorrelation
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27. Residual Plots: Example
Maybe some non-linear relationship
No Discernable Pattern
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28. Testing for Overall Significance
Shows if Y Depends Linearly on All of the X Variables Together as a Group
Use F Test Statistic
Hypotheses:
H0: 1 = 2 = … = k = 0 (No linear relationship)
H1: At least one i  0 ( At least one independent variable affects Y )
The Null Hypothesis is a Very Strong Statement
The Null Hypothesis is Almost Always Rejected
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29. Testing for Overall Significance
(continued)
Test Statistic:
Where F has k numerator and (n-k-1) denominator degrees of freedom
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30. Test for Overall Significance Excel Output: Example
p-value
k = 2, the number of explanatory variables
n - 1
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31. Test for Overall Significance: Example Solution
H0: 1 = 2 = … = k = 0
H1: At least one j  0
 = .05
df = 2 and 12
Critical Value:
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:  F
168.47
(Excel Output)
Reject at  = 0.05.
 = 0.05
There is evidence that at least one independent variable affects Y. F
3.89
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32. Test for Significance: Individual Variables
Show If Y Depends Linearly on a Single Xj Individually While Holding the Effects of Other X’s Fixed
Use t Test Statistic
Hypotheses:
H0: j = 0 (No linear relationship)
H1: j  0 (Linear relationship between Xj and Y)
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33. t Test Statistic Excel Output: Example
t Test Statistic for X1 (Temperature)
t Test Statistic for X2 (Insulation)
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34. t Test : Example Solution
Does temperature have a significant effect on monthly consumption of heating oil? Test at  = 0.05.
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
H0: 1 = 0
H1: 1  0
df = 12
Critical Values:
t Test Statistic =
Reject H0 at  = 0.05.
Reject H
Reject H
There is evidence of a significant effect of temperature on oil consumption holding constant the effect of insulation.
.025
.025 t
2.1788
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35. Venn Diagrams and Estimation of Regression Model
Only this information is used in the estimation of
Only this information is used in the estimation of
Oil
This information is NOT used in the estimation of nor
Temp
Insulation
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36. Confidence Interval Estimate for the Slope
Provide the 95% confidence interval for the population slope 1 (the effect of temperature on oil consumption).
 1 
We are 95% confident that the estimated average consumption of oil is reduced by between 4.7 gallons to 6.17 gallons per each increase of 10 F holding insulation constant.
We can also perform the test for the significance of individual variables, H0: 1 = 0 vs. H1: 1  0, using this confidence interval.
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37. Contribution of a Single Independent Variable
Let Xj Be the Independent Variable of Interest
Measures the additional contribution of Xj in explaining the total variation in Y with the inclusion of all the remaining independent variables
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38. Contribution of a Single Independent Variable
From ANOVA section of regression for
From ANOVA section of regression for
Measures the additional contribution of X1 in explaining Y with the inclusion of X2 and X3.
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39. Coefficient of Partial Determination of
Measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that is explained by Xj while controlling for (holding constant) the other independent variables
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40. Coefficient of Partial Determination for
(continued)
Example: Model with two independent variables
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41. Venn Diagrams and Coefficient of Partial Determination for
Oil =
Temp
Insulation
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42. Coefficient of Partial Determination in PHStat
PHStat | Regression | Multiple Regression …
Check the “Coefficient of Partial Determination” box
Excel spreadsheet for the heating oil example
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43. Contribution of a Subset of Independent Variables
Let Xs Be the Subset of Independent Variables of Interest
Measures the contribution of the subset Xs in explaining SST with the inclusion of the remaining independent variables
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44. Contribution of a Subset of Independent Variables: Example
Let Xs be X1 and X3
From ANOVA section of regression for
From ANOVA section of regression for
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45. Testing Portions of Model
Examines the Contribution of a Subset Xs of Explanatory Variables to the Relationship with Y
Null Hypothesis:
Variables in the subset do not improve the model significantly when all other variables are included
Alternative Hypothesis:
At least one variable in the subset is significant when all other variables are included
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46. Testing Portions of Model
(continued)
One-Tailed Rejection Region
Requires Comparison of Two Regressions
One regression includes everything
Another regression includes everything except the portion to be tested
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47. Partial F Test for the Contribution of a Subset of X Variables
Hypotheses:
H0 : Variables Xs do not significantly improve the model given all other variables included
H1 : Variables Xs significantly improve the model given all others included
Test Statistic:
with df = m and (n-k-1)
m = # of variables in the subset Xs
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48. Partial F Test for the Contribution of a Single
Hypotheses:
H0 : Variable Xj does not significantly improve the model given all others included
H1 : Variable Xj significantly improves the model given all others included
Test Statistic:
with df = 1 and (n-k-1 )
m = 1 here
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49. Testing Portions of Model: Example
Test at the  = .05 level to determine if the variable of average temperature significantly improves the model, given that insulation is included.
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50. Testing Portions of Model: Example
H0: X1 (temperature) does not improve model with X2 (insulation) included
H1: X1 does improve model
 = .05, df = 1 and 12
Critical Value = 4.75
(For X1 and X2)
(For X2)
Conclusion: Reject H0; X1 does improve model.
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51. Do We Need to Do This for One Variable?
The F Test for the Contribution of a Single Variable After All Other Variables are Included in the Model is IDENTICAL to the t Test of the Slope for that Variable
The Only Reason to Perform an F Test is to Test Several Variables Together
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