1. Adriaan M. Bloem 15 December 2009
Towards A Flash GDP?
Adriaan M. Bloem
15 December 2009

2. What Is A Flash GDP? An early estimate of a certain reference period
For instance, a QNA GDP estimate faster than the regular estimate
A short-term GDP estimate
For instance, a monthly GDP estimate

3. A Flash GDP: What’s The Attraction?
Financial and economic policy increasingly needs fast info
GDP is a well-known indicator
GDP covers the whole of the economy

4. Why Don’t More Countries Have A Flash GDP?
Lack of sufficient source data
High reliance on modeling or “nowcasting”
Low information content—little value added
Not able to identify turning points
Lack of accuracy (compared with later result)
Only about 16 EU countries out of 27, and a few beyond have a flash GDP little

5. What More Should I Say?
One aggregate GDP number does not tell us much about the economy
“Early” estimates not that early
Claim on scarce resources
Advantage of national accounts: providing an integrated, detailed and consistent picture of the economy
This allows analyzing economic developments throughout the economy. One single GDP number does not have this advantage.

6. What Could We Do? Produce a set of really fast monthly indicators
Both on the supply and use side
Consistent with the national accounts
Providing a reasonably detailed picture of the economy
Really fast: within six weeks of the month

7. What Kind Of Indicators? Supply Side
Output of manufacturing undustries
Trade
Transport
Financial services (FISIM)
Mining and quarying
Tourism-related industries
Important industries (depending on country)

8. What Kind Of Indicators? Use Side
Household consumption
Imports and exports
Fixed capital formation
Changes in inventories
Really

9. Statistical Requirements
Based on national accounts (quarterly or annual)
Using actual data or direct indicators
Both seasonally adjusted and raw data
Coordinated production and release
Really

10. Advantages Real data Fast Enabling identifyig turning points
Enabling analysing business cycle
Much more analytical value through relevant detail
Accuracy much less of a problem
No now or forecasting
Six weeks should not be difficult
Because these are real data
Enable relating developments throughout the economy
Specific indicators usually suffer less fro later revisions than compound indicators such as GDP

11. Desimination Monthly press release
Bringing all relevant monthly data together
Focussing on trends
Really

12. GDP And Beyond
Eventually, such a set might allow producing an accurate monthly flash GDP
More importantly, it would provide a context for other important indicators
Labor force
Household income and saving
Financial indicators (e.g., sectoral debt)
Labour force
Six weeks should not be difficult
Because these are real data
Enable relating developments throughout the economy
Specific indicators usually suffer less fro later revisions than compound indicators such as GDP

13. Thanks For Your Attention!
Labour force
Six weeks should not be difficult
Because these are real data
Enable relating developments throughout the economy
Specific indicators usually suffer less fro later revisions than compound indicators such as GDP