1. From Food Quantity to Diet Quality: How the Race Against Malthus is Changing
Will Masters
Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy, Tufts University |
Tufts Research Day on Global Food Security
25 April 2016

2. Last week, more bad news from Africa:
Also, this:

3. The race against Malthus is changing as commodities get cheaper
and population growth slows down
1800
1850
We are
here
(approx.)

4. The race against Malthus is changing
from more food to more diverse foods
Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data, faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E

5. ...but not always healthier foods
Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data, faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E

6. ...and diverse trajectories over time
Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data, faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E

7. The food system’s race against Malthus runs through rural population growth
>50% urban in 2008
Rural peaks
in 2028
“peak rural” is 2022
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at

8. The most delayed demographic transition is in Sub-Saharan Africa
>50% urban in 2008
>50% urban in 2040
“peak rural” is 2022
Rural still
rising past 2050!
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at

9. Despite its fast-growing cities,
Africa is the last frontier of Malthusian
rural population growth
>50% urban in 2040
Rural still
rising past 2050!
1800
1850
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at

10. Much to discuss today!

12. The race against Malthus is changing
In English language books,
“hunger” declined after 1945
but rose again after 2005,
“obesity” rose in 1970s and since 2000
1800
1850
Source: Google Books ngram viewer,