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OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS
Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY ON CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy March 2004 FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Introduction At the request of national governments, the FAO/GIEWS usually jointly with WFP, conducts Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) for countries facing widespread and serious food emergencies. Typically countries are annually covered by these missions. Most are in Africa but recent examples also include the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Afghanistan and Iraq. The FAO methodology followed for these assessments is briefly outlined in this presentation. Further details are available from: GIEWS, FAO, Rome, Italy telephone no. (+39) The WFP part of these assessments dealing with the vulnerability analysis is available from WFP – Emergency Needs Assessment Guidelines, 1999; Emergency Field Operations Pocketbook, 2002, and the FAO Guidelines. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Purpose & Objectives of CFSAMs
The primary purpose of CFSAMs is to provide accurate, timely and credible information on imminent food security problems in a country or a region so that appropriate actions can be taken by the governments, the international community and others to minimize the impact of man-made or natural disasters on the affected populations. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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THREE MAIN COMPONENTS OF FAO/WFP CFSAMs
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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THE FINAL JOINT REPORT Integrated Picture of Food Balance, Gap and
Food Assistance Needs FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Table of Content of a Typical CFSAM Report (Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report)
Mission Highlights 1. OVERVIEW 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1 Macroeconomic situation 2.2 Population 2.3 Agricultural sector 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2003 3.1 General 3.2 Rainfall 2003 3.3 Area planted 3.4 Factors affecting yields 3.5 Other crops 3.6 Livestock 3.7 Cereal and pulse production forecast 3.8 Secondary season (Belg) 2002, 2003 and 2004 4. CROP PRODUCTION SITUATION BY REGION 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION 5.1 Agricultural markets and prices 5.2 Grain supply/demand balance 6. EMERGENCY FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS 6.1 Review of Emergency Food Aid in 2003 6.2 Household Food Security Outlook in 2004 6.3 Nutrition 6.4 Relief Food Aid Requirements in 2004 6.5 Food Basket Considerations 6.6 Local Purchases 6.6 Emergency Food Security Reserve 6.8 Implementation Whenever it is relevant, public health issues such as the HIV/AIDS affecting food security and agriculture are also included. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Economic Analysis FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Macroeconomic Profile of the Country
National Socio-Economic Parameters Socio-Economic Conditions of the most affected Agriculture Sector in the National Economy FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Economic Parameters - Domestic
Economic Growth/Decline – GNP/GDP, Purchasing Power Parity, per capita levels Fiscal Position – Deficit, govt. spending, Inflation – food price inflation, effect on purchasing power Unemployment – formal/informal sectors FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Economic Parameters - External
National Trade Balance Position - Currency Position – Exchange rate changes, reserves, etc. National debt FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Socio-Economic Conditions of the Most Affected
Per Capita or Household incomes In-kind Wage Earnings Income Distribution HIV/AIDS and other factors FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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General Development Indicators
Human Development Index Poverty levels – various definitions FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Agriculture Sector in the National Economy
Size and Share of the Sector Employment and Livelihood, Dependence on Agriculture Export Contributions of Agriculture Ag. & economic policy changes FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Food Production/Balance
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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National Food Balance Sheet
Domestic Availability Total Utilization Import Requirements FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes)
Domestic availability 13 800 Opening stocks Production Main season Secondary season 500 13 300 13 000 300 Total utilization 14 010 Food use Feed use Seed use Losses Exports Closing stocks 10 944 650 1390 70 656 Import requirement 210 Commercial imports Food aid received and pledged 50 60 Uncovered deficit 100 FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Domestic Availability
Opening stocks Domestic production Commercial and concessional imports FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Stocks: Opening and Closing
On-Farm Stocks Private Stocks Publicly-Held Stocks Stocks in Ports and Transit FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Crop Production Estimation
Information – GOs, NGOs, Organizations Macrolevel – Satellite imagery and data, Rainfall data Farmer surveys, crop cutting experiments Factors affecting current production Market/trader visits – cross-checks Yield comparison with last, normal, best, worst Other important sources of food and income FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Import Requirements Commercial import capacity Concessional imports
Uncovered deficit Of which emergency food aid pledged/anticipated FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Commercial Food Imports (Ability and willingness to import by public and private sectors)
Import capacity Export earnings – historical, current Import parity prices Other priorities for imports Commercial market capacity (effective demand) Degree of currency control Foreign exchange for food imports Degree of grain marketing control Private versus government trading FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Total Food Utilization
Human consumption Apparent consumption rates Population estimates Feed use Seed use Industrial uses Post-harvest losses Exports Closing stocks FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Vulnerability Assessment
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Vulnerability/Needs Assessment (WFP)
Review of emergency food aid Household food security outlook for next year Nutrition status Coping mechanisms Food aid needs and targeting of assistance Relief food aid requirements in 2004 Food basket considerations Local purchases Emergency food security reserves Logistics issues Implementation and other issues FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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Short Term Food Security Strategy
Number of people in need of assistance and the volume and composition of food aid (WFP) Reconciliation of the national food gap (FAO side) and the total assistance requirement (WFP side) Recommendations FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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If you have any comments or suggestions on the methodology, special reports, or this presentation, please send them to: FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy
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