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BK Sell pitch Financials IG
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Agenda Company Overview Why we bought Since purchase
Why we should sell Conclusion
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Company Overview Custodial Bank & Investment Management
Client base: financial institutions, corporations, government entities, endowments, & foundations 6 Continents: 36 Countries 16,000+ non-US employees Non-US Revenue: 38% (4Q10) Over $1T AUM
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Business Model Investment Management: 26% Revenue
Asset Management Wealth Management Investment Services: 74% Revenue Asset Servicing Issuer Services Clearing Services Treasury Services
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Some Key Numbers Market Cap: $35.96B ($33.4B) (Large Cap)
Shares Outstanding: 1.24B (1.2B) Debt/Capital: 51.32% (52.3%) ROE: 8.13% (9.8%) Revenue: $13.875B ($8.28B) Beta: 0.73 (0.66) (82% institutionally owned) 12/2011 EPS forecast: 2.54 (2.06 Current) Credit Rating: AA- Numbers in parenthesis are numbers from the buy pitch ROE fell since the buy pitch Revenues increased but $8B was too low for the record of company
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Peer Comparison Failed to recover this Fall
BK is the worst performer since this Summer. It failed to make gains that its competitors made in September and October
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Comparison with BLK Sustainable growth rate: 4.61% P/E: 13.07
BK BLK Sustainable growth rate: 4.61% P/E: 13.07 Mkt Cap: 35.96B EPS: 2.28 Best PEG: 1.39 Last Price: $28.96 ROA: 1.08% ROE: 8.13% Sustainable growth rate: 5.11% P/E: 16.96 Mkt Cap: 36.43B EPS: 11.01 Best PEG: 0.74 Last Price: $189.98 ROA: 1.16% ROE: 8.18% Blackrock offers an array of equity, fixed income, multi-asset class, alternative investment and cash management products, as well as its BlackRock Solutions investment systems, risk management and advisory services
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Income Statement Increasing SGA expenses when the revenues are stable
Only 3 percent increase in net income since the Euro crisis This bank is recovering slowly
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Income Statement- Annual
Deteriorating Net Income even before crisis. Company couldn’t recover its profit margins of 2006 (nor revenues of 2008) Note: Fee Revenue didn’t grow much compared to 2009 levels.
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Operations and Capital
Assets under management grew by 5% Fee revenue remained an important revenue source Operations outside of US grew
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From the buy pitch The EPS estimate for 200 was 2.36, but the actual EPS is now 2.28
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Financials BK increased its 12M revenues to $14.39B this year. However fee revenues are still below 2008 levels Assets under management grew 5% Recovery of EPS was below what we expected when we made the buy pitch Looking at the big picture, BK still didn’t recover as much as the buy pitch predicted Its stock price underperformed its competitors BLK and STT Analysts believe BK will remain accretive afterwards and agree with accretion schedule.
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Why We bought..
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Fee Based Service
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Geographic Growth
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Other reasons.. Macroeconomic trends S&P, Fed Funds rate DCF Valuation
Projected to be 33% undervalued
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Review of Trade Bought at $28.76 on Feb. 19th, 2010
As of today’s market, $28.20 Loss of 2.02%
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Chart: Since Purchase: -2.02%
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Reasons to sell BK European Crisis Not out of the woods yet SRI
Overcharging on currency transactions No real growth drivers Original thesis has not played out Sheer size low beta Foreclosure issue How much still on the balance sheet?
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Conclusion Sell full position
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