1. Opinion poll on referundum
July 2010

2. Introduction and Methodology
Strategic Research conducted an opinion poll to gauge the opinion of Kenyans on the up coming
referendum. The survey targeted Kenyans who are 18 years and above and who are eligible to vote
Forthcoming referendum.
Survey Area
Country wide
Sample size
3002
Sample distribution
Simple Random Sampling
Target Population
Respondents at Household level
Instrument
Face-to-face administered Questionnaire
Field Dates
July 9th – 14th 2010

3. Demographics
Age %
Religion
18-24
29.8
Muslim
9.8
25-29
17.5
Christian - Catholic
35.9
30-34
16.2
Christian - Protestant
51.2
35-39
11.2
Indigenous
1.3
40-44
7.9
No religion
0.2
45-49
RTA
1.5
50+
9.4
0.6
Total
100.0
Gender
Marital status
Male
52.6
Married
53.6
Female
47.4
Single
39.0
Separated/divorced
3.6
Location
Widow/Widower
3.7
Urban
44.5
2.2
Rural
55.5
87% of the respondents were Christians with Muslims constituting about 10%. Most of those interviewed were less than 40 years of age with those in the age group being the majority

4. Demographics – Regions covered
Province %
Nairobi
6.9
Coast
9.4
Central
13.5
Eastern
15.9
Rift Valley
27.8
Western
10.7
Nyanza
11.4
North eastern
4.4
Total
100.0
Education %
Never went to school
4.3
Primary not completed
4.8
Completed primary
9.2
Secondary not completed
12.2
29.4
Completed secondary
19.3
College/University not completed
18.1
Completed college/University
0.3
RTA
2.4
Total
97.6

5. Are you a registered voter
Why are you not registered N %
I applied for identification card recently and not gotten it/I have no ID
111
29.1
Lost ID 61
16.0
Has no interest/I don’t want to vote 78
20.5
Delayed to get a registration card 23
6.0
Has no time 22
5.8
Did not register 16
4.2
I don’t like politics
I don’t want to see a repeat of the 2007/2008 clashes 14
3.7
Of those who have not registered to vote in the referendum, 45% said they did not because they did not have identification cards.

6. Are you likely to vote in the coming referundum

7. Are you likely to vote in the coming referundum
Are you likely to vote in the coming referendum Cross-tabulation
Age
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Neither likely no unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Very unlikely
18-24
67.7%
7.6%
3.1%
2.0%
19.6%
25-29
74.0%
10.4%
3.8%
1.4%
30-34
75.1%
8.9%
3.2%
1.7%
11.1%
35-39
79.8%
7.1%
1.9%
8.1%
40-44
80.1%
8.7%
1.3%
0.9%
9.1%
45-49
82.3%
8.0%
1.8%
0.0%
50+
73.3%
7.2%
3.6%
1.1%
14.8%

8. Are you likely to vote in the coming referendum Cross tabulation
Are you likely to vote in the coming referendum – cross tabulation by religion/denomination
Are you likely to vote in the coming referendum Cross tabulation
Religion
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Neither likely no unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Very unlikely
Muslim
73.1%
10.8%
2.4%
1.0%
12.6%
Christian - Catholic
75.0%
7.9%
2.6%
1.7%
12.8%
Christian - Protestant
73.5%
8.0%
3.5%
1.5%
13.6%
Indigenous
100.0%
0.0%
80.6%
8.3%
2.8%
5.6%
No religion
66.7%
33.3%

9. Have you heard/read about the proposed constitution

10. What is your main source of information on the contents of the proposed constitution

11. Newspaper read most often

12. Favourite - Radio station

13. Have you had access to a copy of the proposed constitution

14. False hoods

15. Truths about the proposed constitution

16. Other than reading the proposed constitution, what are your other sources of info about the proposed constitution

17. In your view, would you say the draft constitution is a very good document or needs amendments

18. Should religious leaders take sides on the constitutional referendum

19. Has the media covered the referendum in an open manner TV/Radio/Print
Has the media covered the referendum in an open manner without bias to either the yes camp or the no camp..
Yes No
Don't know TV
66.1
15.9
18.0
Radio
67.5
18.6
13.9
Print
60.9
14.5
24.6

20. How would you vote in the coming referendum

21. How would you vote in the forth coming referendum Cross tabulation
How would you vote in the coming referendum – cross-tabulation by region
How would you vote in the forth coming referendum Cross tabulation
Yes No
Undecided
Nairobi
76.9%
11.6%
Coast
54.9%
18.8%
26.3%
Central
64.9%
14.0%
21.2%
Eastern
48.9%
29.7%
21.4%
Rift Valley
51.5%
31.5%
17.0%
Western
73.3%
14.2%
12.5%
Nyanza
83.5%
3.7%
12.8%
North eastern
77.8%
8.7%
13.5%

22. Thank you