1. \ Problems with School Planning & Siting Resulting in overcrowding citywide and in District 21 schools Leonie Haimson and Olivia Levey Class Size Matters March 2017

2. Scope of school overcrowding problems enormous
56% of NYC schools are overcrowded according to latest available DOE data (at or over 100% target utilization)
More than 575,000 students (56% of total) enrolled in these schools – about 35,000 more than year before.
About 416,000 (58% of total) K-8 students are enrolled in overcrowded schools
About 159,000 (50% of total ) high school students are enrolled in overcrowded schools
Data: SCA “Blue Book”

3. In District 21, average K-3 class sizes fell slightly by
In District 21, average K-3 class sizes fell slightly by .6 students per class; but remain more than 5 students above C4E goals and also above Citywide average.

4. Grades 4-8 average class size fell slightly by
Grades 4-8 average class size fell slightly by .2 students per class; but remain almost 5 student above C4E goals and more than 1 over Citywide average.

5. Citywide average HS class sizes declined by
Citywide average HS class sizes declined by .2 students per class; but remain far above C4E goals

6. February 2017 DOE five-year capital plan still very underfunded
Funds fewer than 45,000 seats citywide – about half (54%) necessary to alleviate current overcrowding and accommodate enrollment growth, according to DOE estimates.
Only 29% of seats compared to DOE’s analysis have sites and are in process of scope and design.
There is a huge variation across districts in the number and percent of seats funded compared to DOE’s estimate of need.
Bronx is the most underfunded borough according to the percent of unmet need for seats; Queens in terms of total number of unfunded seats.

7. 12 Districts average 100% or more utilization Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book

8. 14 Districts between 99% - 80% Utilization, including D21 at 99% Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book

10. Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE

11. 55% K-8 seats funded citywide compared to DOE estimate of need
DOE claims 37% need funded for D21
Data: Feb capital plan
Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE

12. Citywide only 29% of needed K-8 seats have sites & in design
4 districts have NONE of their needed seats in process of design
37% for District 21
(Feb capital plan)
Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE

13. DOE claims no more HS seats needed in Manhattan, Bronx or Brooklyn

14. Yet we don’t trust DOE’s need estimates
They are based upon an unreliable school capacity formula
They are based upon estimates from housing starts and a CEQR formula from census data hasn’t been updated in nearly 20 years
They are based upon widely divergent enrollment projections from two consulting companies
The methodology DOE uses to incorporate all these unreliable components is non-transparent
DOE says they “overlay” projections from housing starts over consultant enrollment projections but unclear what this means

15. District 21 Overcrowding (includes Charters in district buildings)
51% of K-8 schools in District 21 are overcrowded (at or above 100% target utilization)
55% or 13,904 K-8 D21 students are in overcrowded schools
109 cluster rooms are missing from District 21 schools according to DOE’s utilization formula

16. 22 Schools in District 21 at or over 100% - (Co-located Charters included) Data Source: Blue Book

17. More District 21 overcrowded schools (Co-located Charters included) Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book

18. DOE Capacity formula underestimates overcrowding by assuming overly large class sizes
Relies on school capacity formula that assumes class sizes larger than currently exist on average in NYC schools in grades 4-12 (28 students in 4- 8th grades; 30 in HS)
Thus the formula would tend to force class sizes even higher
Blue Book working group co-chaired by SCA President Grillo and CEC 2 President Shino Tanikawa urged that school capacity formula be aligned with smaller classes in DOE’s C4E plan
Mayor’s office rejected that recommendation in July 2015

19. DOE enrollment projections inconsistent
DOE consultants Grier Partnership project a decrease of 59,000 students citywide between and ,000 fewer K-8 students and nearly 2,000 fewer in HS.
Statistical Forecasting projects a decrease of 28,000 students ,000 fewer K-8 students and about 5,000 fewer in HS over same period.
Yet by using the housing start data with City Planning ratio, more than 79,000 additional students will be enrolled in 2024– about 58,000 more students in K-8 and about 21,000 in HS.
The consultants’ forecasts also vary widely from year to year.
For example, 2 years ago Statistical Forecasting projected an increase of about 60,000 students instead of decrease of 28,000 over next decade.
Data sources: Grier Partnership May 2015; Statistical Forecasting July 2013 & May 2015, Housing start data, March 2017.

20. Numerous problems with City Planning CEQR ratio
City Environmental Quality Review (CEQR) ratio used to project future enrollment from housing starts is borough-based rather than based on districts, neighborhoods or school zones
CEQR ratio hasn’t been revised since 2008 and relies on Census data more than 16 years old.
Mayor has vastly expanded PreK but CEQR ratio has not changed to account for thousands of new PreK students
CEQR ratio estimates each Bronx housing unit to add nearly 4X students than Manhattan, though birth rate & enrollment increasing faster in Manhattan than in Bronx
In 20 out of 32 districts, NO difference between housing start data for 5 yr and 10 yr projections.
Housing start data projects fewer than 2,000 new units to be built citywide , and not one in Brooklyn.

21. Problems with school planning process
Thresholds in city planning process very high
A new residential project has to be projected to increase school overcrowding by at least 5% to even consider need for new school -- even where schools are already overcrowded
Planning process does not take into account cumulative residential development – only considers each proposed project separately.

22. Other problems with DOE seat needs assessments
Don’t account for rapidly expanding charter school population though most of these students attend schools in public school buildings
Claim to be neighborhood-based but define neighborhoods with extremely large areas
Do not differentiate elementary and middle school seat needs
Are infrequently updated
For example, Feb capital plan includes DOE needs assessment from Jan. 2016

23. School siting dysfunctional & inefficient
There are overcrowded neighborhoods where schools have been funded for more than ten years without a single school sited or built
School Construction Authority only has three people on staff looking for sites for schools and one real estate firm per borough on retainer
The SCA never uses eminent domain to acquire sites unless the property has recently been on the market
SCA never “cold calls” meaning identify suitable sites before they’re put on the market to inquire if the owner is interested in selling
In the ”class size reduction” category, there are only 3 small projects identified out of 4,000 seats funded in the capital plan since 2014.

24. We need a new planning process for schools
Without significant reforms, given rapid pace of development throughout the city, school overcrowding will become even more worse
We need reforms so that schools are built along with new housing and not lagging years later
In most large states and districts, developers have to pay an “impact fee” to help fund new infrastructure including schools, but not in NYC

25. What is being done about this?
Public Advocate Tish James, 22 Council Members, Class Size Matters and many parent leaders pointed out many of the problems with school planning and siting in a letter to the Chancellor in June
Instead, Speaker Mark-Viverito announced that Council would form an internal working group to come up with proposals to reform the process.
We hope that this process will be transparent, inclusive, and elicit ideas from experts, parents, and members of the public.

26. Suggestions on how the City Council should elicit ideas for reform
Reach out to Community Boards, Community Education Councils, advocates, parents and CBOs, and other members of public
Elicit ideas and information from professional organizations of architects and planners about what is done in other districts around country
Hold forums and invite experts, activists and parents to speak
Create a website with info on how to submit and post ideas
For now, please contact with YOUR ideas on how to improve school planning and siting