1. Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute
Comparisons of
Downswing Phases
Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute
November 2007
OECD-EU Workshop

2. Which scenario is most likely
in 2007/ 2008 ?

3. Soft landing
as in 1995/1996
or 1998/1999

4. … or
hard landing
as in 1973/1974/1975
or 1990/1991/1992/1993 ?

6. Current business situation
Ifo Business Cycle Clock - Manufacturing Industry1)
Assessment of current business situation vs. business expectations
-40
-30
-20
-10 10 20 30
Upswing
Downswing
Boom
Recession
Jan. 2004
Jan. 2006
Jan. 2000
Jan. 2007
Jan.
1998
Jan.
2005
October 2007
Expectations for the next 6 months
Jan.
2003
Jan. 2001
Jan. 1999
Jan. 2002
WTC
Attack
Sept. 11
-30
-20
-10 10 20 30 50 40
Current business situation
1) Manufacturing industry including food, beverages and tobacco. Balances, seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Ifo Business Survey, Germany.

12. Good chances for a
soft landing
Thank you