1. The Death of Distance Frances Cairncross Exeter College, Oxford Tel Aviv, August 31 st 2005

2. This presentation looks at... The changing world environment The impact of a new technology

3. Prediction can be difficult... Television will never be a serious competitor for radio because people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasnt time for it. The New York Times, reporting the 1939 Worlds Fair

4. …but not impossible Asked in 1898 what he thought would be the decisive factor in modern history, Otto von Bismarck replied: The fact that North Americans speak English.

5. The changing world - A new balance of power

9. The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography

10. Four views of the future: World population projections 2000-2050 Source: UN

11. Globally, more old, fewer young

12. Israel 2000 – and 2050 A tale of two pyramids Source: US Census Bureau

13. The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography More competition for natural resources

14. Oil pressure

15. By 2030… -Developing countries will account for almost 2/3rds of the increase in global oil consumption -China, which became a net oil importer in 1993, will import 74% of its oil -OECDs share of global oil demand will decline from 59% in 2002 to 47%

16. The coming scramble for oil: Global oil-import dependency Source: OECD

17. Water pressure

18. The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography More competition for natural resources New technologies

20. Death of distance

21. Three great transport revolutions: Goods in the 19 th century People in the 20 th century Ideas in the 21 st century

22. Communications technology: –Increases access to information –Forces global thinking –Makes networks matter –Creates new products –Makes markets work better

23. - bringing changes in…. -our working lives -our social lives -our economic lives -our political lives

24. New working patterns: –The office as factory

25. New working patterns: –The office as factory –The office as club –The home as production unit

26. …and also –New kinds of job (did your university train web designers?) –More part-time, more all-the-time –Top talent – or no talent

27. The mini-multinational

28. New social lives: –The power of Googling (internet dating the biggest subscription sites online) –The constant conversation –Ratings, advice, gossip: a global garden fence

29. New social lives: –The power of Googling (internet dating the biggest subscription sites online) –The constant conversation –Ratings, advice, gossip: a global garden fence –Bye-bye privacy

30. New economy, new world for companies An end to inflation A new deal for consumers A new managerial revolution

33. The consumers invention

34. The Company of the Future: Technology shapes companies: -Most people expected too much too soon -The big changes are within companies - -and between companies

35. The second managerial revolution

36. The changing world for business: New ways to reach consumers – especially corporate consumers New ways to purchase New business opportunities New competitors

37. The worlds factory

38. The worlds office IT and BPO employment in India *ForecastSource: NASSCOM

39. A new political order The power of the diaspora The competition for citizens A new role for government

40. Is Distance really Dead? -Inexpensive communications bring enormous changes and opportunities. But…

41. Location still matters - -when goods/ inventory are needed quickly -when high-quality human capital is essential -when uncodifiable knowledge requires people to meet -when deals are done

42. What implications for Israel? -superb at reducing the drawbacks of distance -high-quality human capital -relatively young population -widespread use of English -clever use of diaspora