1. MRC Post- Midterm Election Panel
November 16, 2018

2. Main Issue: 2014 vs. 2018 2014 2018 24% 10% 13% 4% 5% 3% 6% 14% 8% 9%
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
2014
2018
Economy generally
24%
10%
Unemployment / lack of jobs
13% 4%
War / foreign conflicts 5% 3%
Immigration 6%
14%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks 8%
Healthcare 9%
19%
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political, October 29, 2014 and October 31, 2018

3. Reuters/Ipsos Day of Election Poll, November 6, 2018
Ideologically Polarized & Distrustful America
Do you support or oppose… increasing the deportation of illegal immigrants
Do you agree or disagree… Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about me 3
Reuters/Ipsos Day of Election Poll, November 6, 2018

4. Lessons of 2016
Use multiple independent indicators when forecasting elections (beyond just polling).
Triangulate forecasts using multiple sources of information and types of analysis.
Focus on ensuring coverage and representation in survey sample.

5. UVA CfP/Ipsos Political Atlas
Triangulation Approach Success
8 surprises out of 506 races 5
UVA CfP/Ipsos Political Atlas

6. -- Midwest/Appalachia State Polls --
Ipsos
Public Polling Challenges – Select States
-- Midwest/Appalachia State Polls --
Result
538/RCP Average
Error
Indiana Senate
R +6
D +2 8
Missouri Senate
Tie 6
Tennessee Senate
R +11
R +5
Ohio Senate
D +6
D +12
West Virginia Senate
D +3
D +7 4
Total
R +3 6
Source: FiveThirtyEight / Real Clear Politics

7. Thanks