1. Discussion: Data and Methods for Offset Policy Implementation and Evaluation
Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modelling Forum
Shepherdstown, West Virginia
April 7, 2009
Erich Livengood
KEA 3 Limited
New Zealand
Lydia Olander
Tim Pearson
Gordon Smith
Linda Heath
Ian Campbell
Booz Allen Hamilton Standard Colors
Colors should be used in the color pairs whenever possible. Do not mix and match colors, use pairs together as shown.
Black, White and Gray can be used with any of the other colors.
Purple Pantone 2765
R 12
G 4
B 79
Green Pantone 357
R 15
G 67
B 24
Blue Pantone 2 88
R 11
G 31
B 101
Pantone Cool Gray 6
R 158
G 158
B 158
Black
Red Pantone 485
R 252
G 5
B 14
Yellow Pantone 3965
R 232
G 244
B 4
Aqua Pantone 319
R 126
G 204
B 189
White

2. Where does land use offset policy fit?
Largely restricted to the voluntary market under Kyoto
Weak rules
Unknown impact
Domestic rules (in development … currently Waxman bill)
Key tool to support effort to avoid harmful effects of climate change
Growing recognition that 450 ppm-e scenario is only achievable if developed country mitigation is reduced below baseline
Integration of offsets into markets  cost reduction  enhanced commitments
At the same time, credits must be measurable, reportable, and verifiable 2

3. Climate policies/efforts are interlinked at many levels
International
International action is critical to achieving the climate outcome (2°C)
Can’t get there without China, tropical forests
Negotiations drive reductions in many countries, drive demand for offsets, and influence rules at all levels
National
National “responsibility” devolved
Carbon market
Policies and measures for non-included sectors
International linkages (offsets, carbon markets, trade policy)
All taxpayers (or their children more likely) to cover shortfall
Sub-national
Sector/firm obligations and opportunities
Standards/Market rules
Impact of policies and measures
Significant policy mismatches are possible and are not necessarily a problem 3

4. Good estimates are critical to….
So project and policy accounting information is important for all levels
Level
Good estimates are critical to….
International
Understanding the cost of treaty obligations
Understanding positions and evaluating burden sharing arrangements
National
Devolution plan
Choice of accounting for international compliance (Kyoto 3.3, 3.4)
Choice of accounting for domestic compliance
Regulatory impact assessments
Effective market/standards design
Establish policies and measures
Understanding costs and opportunities
Sub-national
Effective project design
Land use decisions
Investment
(UNFCCC process)
(US Plan) 4

5. Good estimates are critical to….
Data needs
Level
Good estimates are critical to….
Information needs
International
Understanding the cost of treaty obligations
Evaluating burden sharing arrangements
Baseline (aggregated)
Ecosystem response
Implications of mitigation supply disruptions
Technology
Impact of aggregation on incentives
Uncertainty – leakage - discounting
Political outcomes
Marginal abatement costs (including supply)
Baseline (bottom-up)
National
Devolution plan
Regulatory impact assessments
Effective market/standards design
Establish policies and measures
Understanding costs and opportunities
Sub-national
Effective project design
Land use decisions
Investment 5

6. Other thoughts on the presentations we just heard….
Tim Pearson
Interplay of international, national, and other policy - GPG, VCS, EU ETS – will have impacts on design of programs and standards
Movement between voluntary space and compliance space may see enhancements in additionality requirements
Forest definition – momentum to continue existing international forest definitions into the next agreement can lead to…..degradation and perverse incentives
As discussed by Tim, incorporation of both performance standards and project specific criteria will lead to adverse selection - must be addressed
Baseline may be fixed, dynamic (reset each period), or linked to drivers
Uncertainties and the degree to which markets will leak and exploit differences is important become very important when leaving the voluntary space
Spatially disaggregated information to support credible projects is required

7. Other thoughts…. Gordon Smith
There is much greater awareness of leakage this time around – afforestation, REDD, forest management, fuels standards, etc.– and a greater willingness to develop a system to address leakage in order to access these credits and mitigation (as evidenced by the 4 for 5 provision of the Waxman bill)
Forestry baseline very problematic – if everyone opts in (as in New Zealand) some of these problems become simpler
Requirements for baseline establishment are non-trivial –they can be highly political and can have large impacts on outcomes
Responsibility for fire, etc. New Zealand approach if to allow owners to retain responsibility for good and bad or to leave leave carbon credits/responsibility with government
Program evaluation – what works? – very big issue for less capable nations and smaller scale projects
Ian Campbell
Ian, along with Karen earlier, covered policy specifics – need to see some work around what standards and characteristics are critical to align, and which can be allowed to diverge to best meet sector and local conditions 7

8. Discussion: Data and Methods for Offset Policy Implementation and Evaluation
Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modelling Forum
Shepherdstown, West Virginia
April 7, 2009
Erich Livengood
KEA 3 Limited
New Zealand
Lydia Olander
Tim Pearson
Gordon Smith
Linda Heath
Ian Campbell
Booz Allen Hamilton Standard Colors
Colors should be used in the color pairs whenever possible. Do not mix and match colors, use pairs together as shown.
Black, White and Gray can be used with any of the other colors.
Purple Pantone 2765
R 12
G 4
B 79
Green Pantone 357
R 15
G 67
B 24
Blue Pantone 2 88
R 11
G 31
B 101
Pantone Cool Gray 6
R 158
G 158
B 158
Black
Red Pantone 485
R 252
G 5
B 14
Yellow Pantone 3965
R 232
G 244
B 4
Aqua Pantone 319
R 126
G 204
B 189
White 8