1. Urban Security in the 21st Century
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION AND IMPLICATIONS ON SECURITY
Defence Seminar, Colombo, 2018
Urban Security in the 21st Century by
Dr Lauren Twort
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

2. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington, to…
Inform
Influence
Enhance public debate on a safer and more stable world

3. Context
Especially after 9/11, the critical roles of cities were revealed as key strategic sites of military, economic, cultural and representational struggle.
Source: Graham, S (2002) ‘Reflections on Cities, September 11th and the ‘War on Terrorism’— One Year On’, International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 26(3):

4. Urban population: 1950
Source: UNICEF

5. Urban population: 2000
Source: UNICEF

6. Urban population: 2050
Source: UNICEF

7. Factors leading to urban population growth: Population growth

8. Factors leading to urban population growth: Rural-urban migration

9. What is Urban Security? Urban Security Urban Planning Urban Resilience
Shift from military security human security
Maintenance day-to-day community activities and functions of society.
Disaster management, low-probability, high impact events.
Urban Security
Resilience as proactive rather than reactive.
Urban Planning
Urban Resilience
Protection of people is associated with protection of national security

10. Range of threats to urban security
Natural hazards
Urban violence
Human-induced threats
tsunami
Industrial pollution
Open armed conflict
Endemic community violence
Organized crime
Anomic crime
landslide
wildfire
hurricanes
Toxic waste
Environmental degradation
flooding
drought
Some exacerbated by climate change
earthquake
terrorism
cybercrime

11. Case study: Sri Lanka
Hazard Profile: Floods, landslides, drought, coastal erosion etc
2018- floods and landslides- affected 19 districts, killed at least 21 people, 400,000 displaced, spread of flu, dengue, cholera.
2017, affected 15 districts, at least 209 killed, with 600,000 persons affected.
Between the years , government expenditure on food aid and relief supporting expenses due to natural disasters exceeded RS. 1.7 billion (National Disaster Relief Services Centre).
Industrial activity was also disrupted in 2016 with factories hit by floods.

12. Economic losses
Sri Lanka has been hit by economic losses equivalent 0.2 percent of its GDP over a 20- year period due to natural disasters
Meanwhile, the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), has said that the cost of natural disasters on Sri Lanka’s economy amounted to 1 percent of GDP in 2017 alone.
Important steps are being taken to implement Sri Lanka’s urban vision 
Recognised need to improve resilience and social preparedness
Capture lessons learned Bob Buhr (2018) “Climate Change and the Cost of Capital in Developing Countries: Assessing the impact of climate risks on sovereign borrowing costs”

13. Threats aimed at cities in 21st century
Terrorism
Cyber threats

14. Urban Warfare

15. Ways Forward: Big Picture
BIG PICTURE- New Urban Agenda (2016)
National urban policies
Stronger urban governance
Reinvigorated "long-term and integrated urban and territorial planning and design
Effective financing frameworks

16. Ways Forward: National level
Multi hazard/risk approach and transdisciplinary working
Diversifying capabilities for risk assessment and improving inter-agency collaborations.
Authorities must become institutionally adaptable
Better data collection, research and exchange of best practices.
Consider risks in a holistic fashion

17. Ways Forward: Local/Community Level
Most tools are targeted to experts and decisionmakers with only a few addressing citizen capabilities
The importance of soft tools- changing social, political and economic conventions are often as crucial to the success of city resilience as upgrading physical assets
Shift away from centralised state protection to encouraging citizens to take measures.
Shared responsibility between governments, private sector and members of civil society will become imperative for maintenance of urban security and disaster management.

18. Concluding Thought
How urban public safety is handled in the 21st century will determine citizens’ perceptions of the accountability and effectiveness of the state in upholding the social contract with its citizens.
- Safe in the City: Urban spaces are the new frontier for international security by Vanda Felbab-Brown