1. Facing Overpopulation

2. Doubling Time “The Most Important Video You Will Ever See”
DT = 70 / NIR

3. Thomas Malthus 1798, British economist
An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society
Population will outrun food supply
Population increase exponentially (geometric rate) but food increases linearly (arithmetic rate)
2 ways to stop: contraceptives/abstinence or “negative checks” (war, famine, pandemics, etc.)

4. Neo-Malthusians
Current supporters (esp. after NIR increase during mid 1900s)
The Population Bomb, Paul Ehrlich 1968
Huge foundation for global family planning initiatives
Even more afraid since all countries have now gone through/are in Stage 2 (rapid growth)
LDCs have lower DR now b/c of new medicine from MDCs, not because of increased wealth/resources
Pop. is still outpacing econ. develop.
Kaplan & Homer-Dixon: Energy resources are now added to the dilemma

5. Critics to Malthus
Pressure on resources lowered with colonization, migration, etc.
Food can grow exponentially thru technology
Possibilism
Boserup & Kuznets: more ppl actually increases production/ econ growth/ ideas
Marxists (Engels): prob lies with unequal distribution of food/$, not actual amount

6. Combining Both Beliefs
World may not run out of food, but areas with rapid growth do face shortages
Malthus was semi-right about food production rates, but not population
Predicted 10 bil by 2000 only 6 bil
Ppl have chosen to have fewer kids (stages 3-5)
Prob is with distribution of food, not production
BUT, doesn’t change that pop. base is still huge produce lots of ppl

8. How can we reduce population growth? (lower CBR)

10. Anti-Natalist Policies
Restrictive Population Policies: govn’t designed policies to reduce NIR
China: “one-child policy”, 1979
Incentives and penalties enacted, services provided
Relaxed in rural areas
1976: BR= 25; 1986: BR= 18; 2010: BR= 12
Led to female infanticide (selective killing of baby girls)
India:
No federal program, but federal funding for clinics
Tried sterilization plan protests
Relies just on education will surpass China before 2050
Eugenics

11. Pro-Natalism Encourage larger families, parenthood
Often found within some denominations (Mormon, Roman Catholic, Amish, fundamental Islam)
Restrict contraceptive, planning methods
Natalist Politics
Tax cuts, baby bonuses (Russia)
Long, paid maternity/paternity leave (Sweden)
Encourage many kids to replace those lost in war (Iran)

12. Epidemiologic Transition
Epidemiology: medical sciences involving scale & geographic connections to explain incidence, distribution, and control of diseases
Dr. John Snow
Epidemiologic Transition: causes of death in ea. stage of the DTM

13. Maps + Epidemiology Cholera- diarrhea & dehydration
Pandemics began in 1816
diff b/w pan-, epi-, and endemic?
Death was convulsive, take days/weeks
No known cause
1854- Soho, London- Dr. John Snow
Medical Geographer
Delivered Queen Victoria’s children
His results still apply- Lima 1991 (epidemic); Haiti 2010

14. Epidemiologic Transition
Stage 1 :
Orman, 1971: “pestilence and famine”
Malthus: natural checks
Often from lack of sanitation
Ex: Black (bubonic) Plague, Dysentary
Stage 2:
“receding pandemics”
Often with poor sanitation, overcrowding
Highly communicable, infectious
Ex: Cholera during early IR, Flu, Ebola

15. Epidemiologic Transition
Stage 3:
“degenerative & human created diseases”
Infections, chronic disorders
Measles, AIDS, polio, etc.  now lowered with vaccines
Ex: Cancer & cardiovascular
Stage 4:
“delayed degenerative diseases”
Ex: former are heightened as pop. ages
** Many Stage 4 & 5 countries have higher DRs b/c…?**

16. Epidemiologic Transition
Stage 5 of ET:
“reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases”
Evolution of microbes, resistance to drugs
Super bugs, new flu strands
Increased migration (SARS, H1N1)