1. 10. Educational Challenges. Projecting the Future.
Intelligent Information Systems
10. Educational Challenges. Projecting the Future.
Gio Wiederhold
EPFL,
April-June 2000, at 14: :15, room INJ 218

2. Schedule
Presentations in English -- but I'll try to manage discussions in French and/or German.
I plan to cover the material in an integrating fashion, drawing from concepts in databases, artificial intelligence, software engineering, and business principles.
1. 13/4 Historical background, enabling technology:ARPA, Internet, DB, OO, AI., IR
2. 27/4 Search engines and methods (recall, precision, overload, semantic problems).
3. 4/5 Digital libraries, information resources. Value of services, copyright.
4. 11/5 E-commerce. Client-servers. Portals. Payment mechanisms, dynamic pricing.
5. 19/5 Mediated systems. Functions, interfaces, and standards. Intelligence in processing. Role of humans and automation, maintenance.
6. 26/5 Software composition. Distribution of functions. Parallelism. [ww D.Beringer]
7. 31/5 Application to Bioinformatics.
8. 15/6 Semantic Interoperation
9. 22/6 Privacy protection and security. Security mediation.
10.29/6 Educational challenges. Expected changes in teaching and learning.
Summary and projection for the future.
Feedback and comments are appreciated.
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3. Topics for discussion Education Libraries
New services -- decision support
Consumer usage (B2C)
Business-to-Business usage (B2B)
Technology Transfer
in each case
Potential
Hindrances
Solutions?
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4. Future Risky Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.
observed
initial expectation
rational base
Risky
Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.
Radio has no future.
X-rays will prove to be hoax.
[Willliam Thomson, Lord Kelvin, ].
Nothing is harder to predict than the future
[Yogi Berra]
The shape of the future is easier to predict than the time of its arrival
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5. Education vs Training Web enables remote education and training:
Will both be affected the same way?
Training is best scheduled as needed
often low student/teacher ratio
life-time need
Education is prescheduled
often high student/teacher ratio
initial, becoming a life-time need
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6. Stonebraker Remarks 21jun2000
Research Crisis
PhD students (and current profs) are going to dot.coms.
University Texas has now only one PhD student/faculty.
Every University has its head in the sand wrt. distance learning.
Second-level University profs will become second-level TAs. Good, Ivy-league Profs. will create content, professionals, as Dan Rathers of teaching.
Center of research funding is now on SandHillRoad, Menlo Park (VCs), not Arlington VA (NSF).
Best paper at SIGMOD dealt with XML encoding.
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7. Stanford Model Based on TV courses offered to industry
in operation since 1975, analyzed & updated
Part of normal curriculum
TV operator in special classroom
shows notes (must be legible), blackboard, teacher
tutor at remote site (has taken class earlier)
voice reverse link for questions (if live TV)
Can be replayed on web in students rooms, …
morning classes getting to be empty
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8. Threat to smaller schools
Alternatives
Overloaded professor with older material
Inaccessible professor with up-to-date material
technology from the entertainment industry
Education / Training when and where wanted
Role for Tutors at remote sites
old British university model: Tutors, Readers
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9. Modes Major E-schools increase enrollment
remote sites - CMU-Silicon Valley
Major E-schools engage existing schools as subsidiaries
Major E-schools sell material to other schools: videos + guides
Major E-schools sell material to new education vendors
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10. E-libraries
When books were rare, libraries were created by the monks who copied books
Today available material exceeds storage capabilities of the largest libraries
Readership / book is declining
Hence: electronic distribution from holding sites
Bibliotheque de France: canonical works
British National Libraries: current collections
Library of Congress: remote model, index
Switzerland?
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11. Added Value of a Library
Virtually everything we have is in the public domain. Our value added is not communications.
It is not hardware. It is not even the data.
Our Value added is the categorization, the storage, and the archiving of data, which gives the tools to search the data, to project it, compare it, chart it, and so on.
Our strategy is to be a high-margin, low-volume producer for a specialized market [Michael R. Blomberg, in Wired April 1998]
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12. E-libraries www.TeleRead.org
Public libraries (funded in the U.S. by Dale Carnegie) have been of major benefit to children and older people who wanted to improve themselves
Libraries and librarians are under budget pressures
Older voters do not support education
In an E-world at least augment paper libraries
Proposal free E-libraries using
Internet and e-books
Contents
Books in public domain
Popular books; suggestion that their copyrights be donated by their authors after initial sales reduce -- ~1-2 years
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13. Move to Multimedia New generation is becomIng more visual
now 3M US MM users, by M
Linkage of entertainment and education
> hinteractive textbooks
simulations with formulas
live observation in geography
. . .
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14. E-Commerce Trends /1999/ ...
Users of the Internet % Ü 52% of U.S. population
Growth of Net Sites (now 2.2M public sites with 288M pages)
Expected growth in E-commerce by Internet users [BW, 6 Sep.1999]
segment
books % Ü 16.0%
music & video 6.3% Ü 16.4%
toys 3.1% Ü 10.3%
travel % Ü 4.0%
tickets % Ü 4.2%
Overall % Ü 33.0% = $9.5Billion
Will change all retail businesses, when?
An unstainable trend cannot be sustained [Herbert Stein]
Ü new services **
Year / % Ü
% Ü
E-penetration
Toys
Centroid, in 1999
~1% of total market
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15. New Services Integration with better precision Added-value services
Semantics, contexts, specialization
Added-value services
maintained mediators
accessed initially via portals
balance portals / specialists?
B2B market is 3 x B2C market
requires more precision
can afford to miss inconsistent suppliers
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16. Government use Better communication with customers
Fewer problems with bureaucrats
authentication of public?
Justifies Library access
Encourages public Internet use
[ … survey]
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17. New Role for Consultants
Old
Used at Design Time
and
To Explain Failures
Future
Available as a Service
Responsible for Knowledge Maintenance
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18. B2B Services Tactical Customers Inventory Suppliers
Information Leverage
requires a sharable format
Strategic
Planning
Capabilities
Opportunities
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19. XML replaces EDI ? Future Machine processable and readable !
return to origin?
ARPAnet -- share heterogeneous machines
-- people-to-people
Digital Library -- people-to-machines
E-commerce (E2B)-- people-to-machines
client-server
Internet -- share heterogeneous data
Mediated -- people-to-services-to-machines
Business (B2B)-- machine-to-machine(s)
Business services -- machine-to-services-to-machines
Ubiquitous -- gadget-to-gadget
(embedded)
Future
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20. DBMSs will serve XML XML will help in use of DBs on the web.
HTML is wild and wooly, oriented towards flexible human processing
For B2B applications interpretation will be by processing programs.
Programs cannot exploit flexibility.
Data requirements remain regular
Freeware will be available
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21. Relevant Examples? Browsing for papers and authors Supplier catalog
human searching
flexible contents
recursive, cyclic, linked structures
Supplier catalog
some number of required entries
some predefined optional entries
further, arbitrary entries are ignored.
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22. Needed features from DBMSs
Rapid retrieval Ü indexing
indexes best derived from regular structures
Optimization Ü quantity estimates
best attached to schemas,
Business integrity ÜTx integrity
fine-grained, routinely provided by DBMSs.
Access control Ü constraint rules
attached to schema attributes and keys
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23. Will RDBMs adapt to XML? Changes will be needed for XML correctness
Ordering, - cross refs., - document snippets, ...
Pressure from customers
Experience from OO-developments
Inadequate rethinking
Rigid internal structure
Staff with performance-oriented experience
XML-specialists mis-focusing on output forms
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24. Planning requires the Future
time
past now future
Msg
systems,
sensors
Databases,
accessed via SQL or
CORBA compliant
wrappers
Simulations,
accessed via SimQL and
compliant wrappers
Point for
Decision-Making
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25. Current state of DM Support
organized support
disjointed support
past now future
time
Data integration
distributed, heterogeneous
ffga jjkl,a
nsnd nn 23.5a
Databases
Intuition +
Spreadsheets
Spreadsheets
Planning of allocations
Other simulations
various point assessments
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26. DM support does not interoperate
Databases
Planning Science
Simulation
Distribution
extensions to move
to networked support
are also disjoint
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27. Language Sketch SQL What was the weather in Chicago yesterday?
SELECT temperature, …, WHERE place = `CHICAGO’ AND date = 8Sep1998
Temperature = 71
SimQL
What will the weather be in Chicago tomorow?
ESTIMATE temperature, …, WHERE place = `CHICAGO’ AND date = 10Sep1998
Temperature = 71, p=.8

28. SimQL: Stanford experiment
Logistics
Application
Manufacturing
Application
SimQL access
SimQL access
SimQL access
SQL access
Weather
(short-, long-term)
wrapper
wrapper
wrapper
wrapper
Engineering
Spreadsheets
Test
Data

29. SimQL Prototype implementation
Parser
Metadata
Manager
Query
manager
Schema
Wrapped ..
Simulations
Development
Interaction
Production
Filing of
Access
Specs
Use of Access
Initiation and Results of Simulations
Commands
Help
Error
reports
Interface customer
Interface developer

30. Use of Simulation Results
Simulation results can be composed for
alternative Courses-of-actions (CoAs)
Composition should be seamless, elegant, with computation and recomputation of likelihoods, values (derived from endpoints)
Results change as now moves forwards and eliminates earlier alternatives.
Pruning needed of low-probability CoAs
Planning Science
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31. Moving to a Service Paradigm
Server is an independent contractor, defines service
Client selects service, and specifies parameters
Server’s success depends on value provided
Some form of payment received for services
x,y
Databases are a current example.
Simulations have the same potential.
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32. Outsourcing
Communication, web simplifies outsourcing of information support functions
-- if functions are critical high risk for Co.
+ if functions are support, helps focus of Co.
> Internal IS departments are viewed with disdain by upper management (75%)
incapable of dealing with E-commerce
cant attract good people
only tactical, no strategic views [CIO Magzine 15June 2000]
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33. Technology Transition .
Economic drivers have to be considered.
Three party model
Industry: need-based invention
academia: formalization
innovators: new technology
New Service models provide new Opportunities
supply innovative tools to industry
supply specialized information to industry I i a
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34. Research economy transfer paths
Tool suppliers (TS) versus Product suppliers (PS)
high-value
modest volume
Customers
Research
Government
Teaching
Taxes
high
volume
people
results
Products
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35. Understanding the other parties
Motivation is profit and loss-avoidance in:
Industry: investment --
payoff to stockholders / retain value / stable
Academia: prestige -- (leads to continuing funding)
visibility, not stability or reliability
Innovative businesses: leverage -- not sustainable
low downside cost, high upside risk,
change expected and needed
Government research:
technology dissemination & shelving service ?
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36. Notes from Stanford OTL
Stanford University has right to Intellectual property for most contracts, employees, faculty.
Inventions are reported to Office of Technology Licensing
Evaluated for originality
Evaluated for economic potential
If rejected returned to inventor
If accepted, protected (patent, trademark , …) & marketed
Proceeds go 1/3 to Stanford, 1/3 department, 1/3 inventor
31 % licensed / 29% waiting, 40%dropped
Large companies poor adopters, best are exclusive to startups
Option: overall license, pay once + small annual
SOE gets base, some fro depts. Inventor gets license fees.
objective is better relationships.to large companies
not suitable for startups, small companies
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37. Expect continuing Internet growth
Hardware technology will continue to lead and encourage broader usage
Communication technology will continue to lead and become more economical
User interfaces will improve and not be a barrier to the acceptance of technology
Government policies will not hinder open interaction - or not be able to
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38. Integration Science Artificial Intelligence knowledge mgmt models
uncertainty
Databases
access
storage
algebras
Systems
Engineering
analysis
documentation
costing
Integration
Science
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39. F i n Comments? what was new / what was old or boring? future emphasis
more technological detail?
more situational detail?
more extrapolation to the future
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40. Operating Systems Less choice, less heterogeneity
Microsoft Windows, personal computer and WS.
proprietary product, no obligations to hardware,
rapidly adapted to new requirements
UNIX, an open systems, consensus, takes time.
SUN servers, other proprietary induce inconsistency
LINUX clients and servers, free, low entry cost
new business models
Mainframe operating systems, little growth expected
VMS (COMPAQ) surviving = reliable 24 hour / 7 day !
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41. Projects at Stanford DB group
Data Mining.
Mediator, Wrapper Generation.
Semantic Matching.
Warehousing.
Security Mediators.
Megaprogramming.
Simulation Access.
Changes, Consistency,
and Configurations.
Digital Libraries
MIDAS
WHIPS
SKC
TIHI-TID
TSIMMIS
SimQL
CHAIMS C3
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