1. Corn Market Outlook Midwest/Great Plains Outlook Conference
Indianapolis, Indiana
Aug. 14, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
154.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,763
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
719
Imports 8 28 29
165 30
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,934
14,512
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,545
4,450
5,100
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,650
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,400
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
715
1,225
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,215
12,675
Ending Stocks
710
1,837
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.95
4.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. Corn Crop Rating
Source: USDA-NASS

4. Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. Ethanol Stocks

13. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

14. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

15. Current Corn Futures
4.61
4.54
4.34
Source: CME Group, 8/12/2013

16. New Crop Prices

17. Corn Prices vs. Costs

18. Corn Crop Rating
Source: USDA-NASS

19. IA Corn Yield Estimate - Conditions

20. US Corn Yield Estimate - Conditions

21. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

22. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Can the new crop beat the summer heat? So far, so good
Then can it beat the freeze?
New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt
Corn demand rebounding?
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(8/12/13)
Corn
$6.95
$4.90
$4.34

23. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: