1. Electoral System Change in New Zealand
Jack Vowles
University of Auckland

2. Institutional Transfer
Emulation is the best form of flattery: but -
‘Nesting’ of Institutions
‘Path Dependence’
‘I wouldn’t go there from here’
Unintended Consequences
Something that works well in one place may not work so well elsewhere

3. MMP: Germany and New Zealand
Two Votes
In New Zealand
the ‘party vote’ decides the overall composition of Parliament
The ‘electorate vote’ elects MPs in single-member districts (69)
The party vote is used to ‘top up’ Parliament with the remaining 51 ‘list seats’
This ensures a moderate to high level of proportional representation (PR)

4. Ballot Paper Format

5. Allocations of Seats at the 2005 New Zealand General Election
% party votes
total seats
electorate seats
list seats
Labour
41.1 50 31 19
National
39.1 48 17
New Zealand First
5.7 7
Green
5.3 6
Maori
2.1 4
United Future
2.7 3 1 2
ACT
1.5
Progressive
1.2

6. Details
A ‘Threshold’
To win list seats a party has to win 5% or more of them or:
Win one or more electorate seats
If a party fails at either of those, it gets no seats at all

7. German reasons for MMP
Germany: modified proportionality (5% threshold, or 3 electorates for list seats)
Electorate vote the ‘first vote’, party vote the ‘second vote’
Focus on choice between larger parties to maintain two bloc system
The shadow of the collapse of German democracy in the 1920s and 1930s under extreme PR

8. NZ reasons for MMP End extreme two-party dominance
Foster coalitions (more than one party in government) or minority governments (governments with less than half the seats in Parliament)
Party vote on the left of the ballot paper, electorate vote on the left
Importance of party vote emphasised

9. Two-vote disadvantages
Overhang - parties gaining more electorate seats than the party vote allocates
Strategies to achieve this problematic
One-vote model removes attractive element of MMP - candidate vote regardless of party

10. Electoral System Choices?
Normative issues: what democratic values are more important than others?
Empirical/technical issues: what systems aggregate preferences most accurately?
Is MMP the best or worst of both worlds?
Does it maximise or minimize the worst aspects of each ‘world’?
If the best electoral systems are a balance of the following: easy to understand, unbiased, and minimise opportunities for strategic manipulation -
Was MMP the best choice?

11. Electoral and Party System Changes in New Zealand,1975-2005
Effective Elective N parties
Effective Parliamentary N parties
Actual N of Parliamentary parties
Two-party
Vote %
Gallagher’s Index Proportionality
SMP
1975
2.6
1.9 2
87.2
12.9
1978
2.9
2.0 3
80.2
15.6
1981
2.1
77.8
16.6
1984
3.0
78.9
15.4
1987
2.3
92.0
8.8
1990
2.7
1.7
82.9
17.4
1993
3.5
2.2 4
69.8
18.2
MMP
1996
4.4
3.8 6
62.0
4.2
1999
3.9
3.4 7
69.2
2002
62.2
2.5
2005 8
1.0

12. Descriptive Representation
Women
Maori
Pacific
Asian
elect
list
all
SMP
1987
14.4
5.1
1990
16.5
1993
21.2
7.1
2.5
MMP
1996
15.4
45.5
29.2
10.8
16.4
13.3
1.5
3.6
1.8
0.8
1999
23.9
39.6
30.8
13.4
13.2
3.0
1.9
2002
27.5
29.4
28.3
14.5
17.6
15.8
4.3
0.0
3.9
1.7
2005
23.2
46.1
33.1
10.1
25.0
3.8

13. Closer to Voters? 100=Most Left, 0=Most Right 1993 1996 2002 Labour 6664 67
National 28 27 38
L - N 37 29
NZ First 69 63 57
Alliance 80 83 81
Act 21 25
Green 73 PC
United Future 33 51
Voter Mean 58 55
Parliament Mean 47 49
Government Mean 36
Government/Voter Difference 30 12

14. Efficacy and Trust Years 1993 1996 1998 1999 2001 2002 2005
MPs out of Touch 61 53 76 52 56 49 44
People Like me have no Say 63 57 - 55 46 48
Politicians Don't Care what People Think 66 50
Government run by a Few Big Interests 60 54 42 39
Satisfaction with Democracy 69 45 67 65
Trust Government to do what is Right 31 30 26 36 47
My vote Really Counts in Elections* 75 85 77 72
Trust in a Political Party** 59 78
Trust in the Labour Party 13 23 N
2205
4086
535
5601
729
4500
2806

15. Parliamentary Turnover
Average
Defeated
Stood Down
Total
( )
8.6
10.2
18.8
1987
6.2
11.3
17.5
1990
22.7
16.5
39.2
1993
3.1
19.6
1996
17.2
12.1
29.3
1999
13.3
12.5
25.8
2002
15.0
10.0
25.0
2005
6.7
24.2

16. Lists and Constituencies
Defeated
Resigned/Deceased
Total
Elect MPs
List MPs
All MPs
turnover
1987
5.2
13.4
18.6
1990
22.7
16.5
39.2
1993
3.1
19.6
1996
17.2
12.1
29.3
1999
12.5
17.0
13.3
7.5
18.9
25.8
2002
4.3
29.4
15.0
13.0
5.9
10.0
25.0