1. Knowledge Seminar: South African doctoral enrolment, graduation and demographics
February 2012

2. Doctoral enrolments, doctoral graduates and research publications
Graph 1 sets out data on key elements of SA’s high-level knowledge production for the period expressed as doctoral enrolments, doctoral graduates and research publication units. Average annual changes in these totals are reflected in Graph 2.

3. Average annual changes: enrolments, graduates and publications
Graph 2 divides Graph 1 growth rates into the period between (a) 1996 and 2002, which covered the period of the 1997 HE White Paper and the 2001 National Plans, and (b) which covered the introduction and implementation of the new 2003 government funding framework.

4. Doctoral enrolments by race group
Graph 3 divides the doctoral enrolment totals for into race groupings. The main change has been in African doctoral enrolments, which increased from 663 in 1996 to 5066 in 2010, when African doctoral enrolments exceeded that of White enrolments for the first time.

5. Percentage of doctoral enrolments in race groupings
Graph 4 shows how the % of doctoral enrolments by race group changed between 1996 to African doctoral students rose from 13% in 1996 to 33% in 2004, and 44% in 2010.

6. Graduation rates and cohort output equivalents
Graph 5 offers a first picture of the doctoral output efficiency of
SA’s public HE system, based on output ratios which appear in the
2001 National Plan. The National Plan set this as an output norm:
The ratio between doctoral graduates in a given year and doctoral enrolments should = 20%. So, if doctoral students were enrolled in the HE system in year X, then at least 200 of these students should graduate in year X.
This norm was based on a further target norm that at least 75% of any cohort of students entering doctoral studies for the first time in (say) year Y, should eventually graduate. Calculations had shown that if the cohort output norm was to be achieved, then the 20% ratio of total graduates to total enrolments would have to be met over a period of time.

7. Graduation rates and cohort output equivalents
Graph 5 shows that, as far as doctoral outputs are concerned, the Public HE system has failed to meet the National Plan’s efficiency targets. Calculations show that over the period 1996–2002, less than 50% of students entering doctoral programmes in SA will eventually graduate.

8. Actual doctoral graduates vs normative totals on National Plan target ratio
Graph 6 offers estimates of the effects of inefficiencies in SA’s doctoral programmes. For example, over the period , SA should, on the National Plan’s norms, have produced a total of doctoral graduates but in fact produced only 7 711, leaving a “shortfall” of graduates (who would have been drop outs from the system).

9. Doctoral degree cohorts (2001, 2002, 2003): Average dropout & graduation by Race
New entrants
Academic year
Year 1
Year 5
*Year 7
Total graduates & dropouts for cohort
African
2117
Registered at beginning of year
665
281
Graduated (Cumulative) 26
655
860
41%
Dropped out (Cumulative)
606
1017
1257
59%
Coloured
274
119 44 4 91
130
47% 45
108
144
53%
Indian
555
193
101
202
254
46%
116
216
301
54%
White
3040
1034
441 58
1213
1523
50%
538
1158
1517
Total
5986
2011
867 92
2161
2767
1305
2499
3219
The End of year 7 dropping out numbers also include students that may have registered in future years to complete their studies.
Source: DHET. 2011, CHET PhD analysis

10. Doctoral degree cohorts (2001, 2002, 2003): Average dropout & graduation by University Group
New entrants
Academic year
Year 1
Year 5
*Year 7
Total graduates & dropouts for cohort
High Productive Universities : University of Cape Town,
University of Pretoria, Rhodes University, University of Stellenbosch, University of the Witwatersrand
3098
Registered at beginning of year
1230
509
Graduated (Cumulative) 29
1179
1532
49%
Dropped out (Cumulative)
495
1130
1566
51%
Other Universities : University of Fort Hare, University of the Free State, University of Limpopo, North-West University, University of the Western Cape
978
316
144 10
372
485
50%
210
388
493
Comprehensive Universities : University of Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, University of South-Africa, University of Venda, Walter Sisulu University, University of Zululand
1702
407
187 50
554
672
39%
530
869
1030
61%
Universities of Technology : Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Central University of Technology, Durban University of Technology, Mangosuthu University of Technology, Tshwane University of Technology, Vaal University of Technology
208 58 27 3 56 78
38% 70
112
130
63%
Total
5986
2011
867 92
2161
2767
46%
1305
2499
3219
54%
Source: DHET. 2011, CHET PhD analysis

11. Enrolments South African International Total 2007 7 195 2 853 10 048
2008
6 959
3 035
9 994
2009
7 213
3 316
10 529
2010
7 841
3 749
11 590
 Graduates
South African
International
Total
2007
900
374
1 274
2008
829
353
1 182
2009
908
470
1 378
2010
931
489
1 420
It is important to note that the two countries produce almost the same number of PhD graduates but that South Africa’s population is in the order of 48 million whilst Norway’s population is 4.8 million
Graduates 
Norwegian
International
Total
2007
789
241
1030
2008
937
308
1245
2009
851
297
1148
2010
858
326
1184
2011
889
438
1327

12. Permanent academic staff
Academic staff with doctoral degrees are a key input for high-level knowledge production is. Permanent academic staff in this category should be the major producers of research outputs, and at an input level the main supervisors of doctoral students. Graph 7 shows how the totals of permanent academic staff with doctoral degrees changed between 1996 and 2010.

13. Percentage of academic staff with doctorates by institutional category
Graph 8 divides public HE institutions into the 3 categories used for national planning purposes, and sub-divides the 11 universities into a group of 6 which produces 60% of the HE system’s total high-level knowledge products and the remaining 5. The groups are:
High productive universities
UCT, UKZN, Pretoria, Rhodes, Stellenbosch, Wits
Other universities
Fort Hare, Free State, Limpopo, North West, UWC
Comprehensive universities
UJ, NMMU, Unisa, Venda,
WSU, Zululand
Universities of technology
Cape Peninsula, Central, Durban, Mangosuthu, Tshwane, Vaal DUT

14. Percentage of academic staff with doctorates by institutional category
Graph 8

15. Ratios of doctoral enrolments to academic staff with doctorates
The low proportions permanent academic staff with doctoral degrees must have an impact on the numbers of doctoral students which can be enrolled and supervised. Graph 9 shows what the ratios have been between doctoral enrolments and permanent academic staff with doctorates. A ratio of two doctoral enrolments per permanent academic with a doctorate could be used as an indicator of institutional capacity. Graph 9 shows that the high productive group of universities and the comprehensives had ratios above 2 in 2010, which could be taken to imply that they have reached capacity as far as doctoral enrolments are concerned. Increases in their doctoral enrolments should depend on more academic staff obtain their own doctoral degrees. The 2:1 norm suggests that the other group of 5 universities and the universities of technology may have spare supervisory capacity, but their ability to deal with this depends on their current financial and efficiency levels.

16. Ratios of doctoral enrolments to academic staff with doctorates
Graph 9

17. Government research funding allocations by output category and financial year
Government’s funding incentives for research outputs are complex because of the 2-year time lag between the completing of an output and the receipt of a funding allocation, and the weightings applied to research outputs. Graph 10 shows what research funding totals were generated by each output category. Graph 11 shows what the Rand values can be assigned to research output units.

18. Government research funding allocations by output category and financial year
Graph 10

19. Estimates of Rand values of research outputs
Graph 11

20. Average annual increases in outputs
It could be argued that the high Rand values for doctoral graduates should have functioned as strong incentives to institutions to expand these outputs. The data in Graph 12 suggest these financial incentives have not yet affected doctoral graduate growth, which was 3.5% pa between 2000 & 2004, and 3.6% pa between 2005 and There are likely to be a number of reasons why doctoral graduate totals have not yet responded to the output funding incentives introduced for the first time in the 2004/5 financial year. One explanation is that only a few universities have been able to benefit from the introduction of government research output incentives. A second explanation is that doctoral processes in SA have been characterised by high levels of inefficiency, as has been seen in Graphs 5 and 6.

21. Average annual increases in outputs
Graph 12

22. Total government research output funding per permanent academic
Graph 13 shows that government output funding can be related to staff capacity. In 2011/12 the high productive university group generated R in government research funds per permanent academic, which was considerably higher than the averages for the other groupings.

23. Doctoral and publication output funding per permanent academic in 2011/12
Graph 14 relates doctoral graduate funding to permanent academic staff, but also compares this doctoral funding to research publication funding per permanent academic. The graph shows that in 2011/12 the high productive universities group generated R in doctoral funding per permanent academic, and R in research publications. The amounts are lower, but similar wide differences can be seen in the other institutional categories. These lower amounts generated by doctoral graduates could be related to institutional inefficiencies, but also to institutional incentives. Some institutions distribute publication output funds to authors, but few (if any) distribute doctoral graduate funds to supervisors. Academic staff members are therefore likely to gain more direct personal benefits from research publications than from doctoral graduates.

24. Doctoral and publication output funding per permanent academic in 2011/12
Graph 14