1. Bus services and contracts in London
Nigel Hardy
‘Formerly of’ Transport for London
(Head of Network Development)
12 July 2017

2. Transport for London Population 8.6 million (2030, 10 million+)
TfL: 28,000 employees, budget £11.6bn
Delivers Mayor of London’s transport strategy
Mix of fares, central govt funding, borrowing
London Underground, Rail, Crossrail, Surface Transport
Surface Transport: Buses, roads, trams, taxis, river, cycle hire, walking & cycling strategies
Buses: 24/7 operation, 700+ fixed schedule routes
Planning, Contracts, Performance
TSG: technology arm of Buses

3. Daily journeys in London
30 million journeys in total
6.5 million journeys are made on London’s buses
half of all public transport use by Londoners
3.4 million on the Underground (Metro)
2.9 million on other rail
6.2 million on foot
0.6 million by bicycle
10.2 million car / motorcycle trips

4. Organisation of buses in London

5. Bus Service Metrics - Reliability
Aggregation: London network, Operator, Garage, Route, Bus Stop

6. Bus Service Metrics - Operated mileage
‘Mileage Operated’ % = km operated / km scheduled
Reasons for lost mileage (TfL use 20 different categories)
‘Deductable‘ lost mileage: ~0.5% (the Bus Operator is at fault)
Mechanical failure (0.4%)
Staff shortages (<0.1%)
Other deductable (<0.1%)
‘Non-deductable’ lost mileage: ~1.8% (the Bus Operator is not at fault)
Traffic (~1.8%)
Other non-deductable (<0.1%)

7. Bus contracts over time
Route by route basis, 5 year rolling programme (2 year extension)
Gross contract : operated mileage paid pro rata (10% up)
Net contract : revenue growth retained by Operator, but not reinvested. Complex contracts discouraged new entrants
QICS 2000 – present: minimum reliability performance standards

8. Payments to Bus Operators
Total value of contracts = £1.6 billion/year (R27.9 billion/year)
Operators paid pro-rata mileage
Incentives for meeting reliability targets (-10% to +15%)
70% cost recovery, 3rd lowest cost per km in benchmarking group
Mileage: deductable mileage is causes within the Operators control e.g. Staff shortages, mechanical breakdown
Non-deductable mileage is causes outside of the Operators control e.g. Traffic congestion
Excess Wait Time is a measure of how well spaced the buses are, actual wait time minus scheduled wait time. Bunching kept to a minimum
On-Time % is a measure of adherence to the schedule, on-time bus is 2.5mins early to 5mins late of the schedule

9. Payments to Bus Operators

10. Other performance monitoring
TfL monitors a range of outputs;
Safety, and accidents/incidents
Driving standards and drivers’ working hours
Engineering standards
Environmental reporting
Various monitoring tools are used and supported by audit.
Results from Customer Satisfaction Survey, Mystery Traveller Surveys and other surveys feed into contract management.

11. Subsidies
We are actively managing the bus network to optimise performance.
We are increasingly covering the cost of London’s buses from operating income. Total real bus subsidy has been reduced by 40 per cent over the last five years, moving to zero!
Achieved through:
Growing demand for services (population growth, modal shift)
Regular re-tendering of services to secure the best deals (‘most economically advantageous’)
Regular reviews of the network to ensure it meets passenger need (50% per year)

12. Performance Monitoring
iBus £120 million project, roll out 2007
Network Planning/ Development
Passenger Data Analysis
Tendering & Schedules
Contracts
On-Bus R.T.I (fixed signs, mobile web)
Operations
Radio & Service Control
Passengers
Performance Monitoring
Historic Reports
Operator Payments
£1.6 billion per year

13. Reporting dimensions Excluded data (3.5%)
700 routes, inc. 150 night routes, 50 school routes
19,000 bus stops
25,000 drivers
21 Operators (7 group, 2 independent)
8,600 buses
120,000 weekday trips
5,500 unique route-stop timing points (reliability)
4.5 million potential route-trip-stop departure times (mileage)
Operator payments reviewed Quarterly
Reports live 2013+

14. Reliability improvements from iBus
Improved performance at new locations and hours monitored
HF routes
-7% EWT
LF routes % On-Time

15. Costs & benefits ( )
Here we have forecast and actual costs. Business case benefits were for passenger savings through Service Control. In fact, reduction in OSC’s + monetised benefits for Automated monitoring
Time savings (4.2secs per passenger journey realised, but by different mechanism!)

16. Drivers of customer satisfaction
Since 2013, journey times have increased, reliability & patronage have fallen...

17. The future…? Revenue streams under pressure
Central govt funding decreasing
Patronage & fares revenue decreasing
Current Mayor has frozen fares
Technology led solutions to optimise performance?
Passenger counting (planning, real time info)
Automating/optimising some service control decisions?
Dynamic scheduling, Demand Responsive Transport?
First/last mile?
Highly subsidised routes
More efficient means of moving people around
Mobility as a Service
Driverless vehicles…
Not advising to follow the route we once chose, can skip to the new models being considered