1. Hans von Storch: Advanced study course on climate science
The political dimension of climate science – CUDOs vs. postnormal, or: Die Klimafalle
Concepts of regional climate servicing
Concepts of downscaling
The role of noise in climate and in climate analysis
Bologna, October 2018

2. Concepts of regional climate servicing
Hans von Storch
Based upon:
von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1 (2), 78, doi: /ngeo111
von Storch, H., I. Meinke, N. Stehr, B. Ratter, W. Krauss, R.A. Pielke jr., R. Grundmann, M. Reckermann and R. Weisse, 2011: Regional Climate Services illustrated with experiences from Northern Europe. Journal for Environmental Law and Policy 1/2011, 1-15
30 min

3. Challenges in science – stakeholder interactions
Many … here three issues out of a larger range
Different perceptions among scientists and the public
Stakeholder do hardly interlink directly with climate scientists
Flawed communication by scientists

4. 1. Challenge: Different perceptions among scientists and the public
Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Envi Sci. Pol
Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350

5. 2. Challenge: Stakeholder do hardly interlink directly with climate scientists
How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation?
Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.

6. 3. Challenge: flawed communication by scientists
Example: the confusion about „Projections and predictions“
The IPCC provides the following operational definitions : “A projection is a potential future evolution …” and “A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future …”
But in practice these terms are mixed up. Bray and von Storch (2009) find that
about 29% of climate scientists call “most probable developments” projections,
while about 20% “possible developments” are labeled “predictions”.
Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2009: 'Prediction' or 'Projection'? The nomenclature of climate science. Sci. Comm. 30,

7. 3. Challenge: Flawed communication by scientists
Example: „The science is settled“
Consensus Climate change – present knowledge
There is a global warming, which is inconsistent with internal causes (Detection)
Thus, the warming needs an explanation with external causes. Only when greenhouse gases are considered a dominant driver, a consistent explanation can be found (attribution)
The change manifests itself in the thermal regime, in sea level rise and, plausibly, in more heavy rainfall events.
Dissensus Climate change – present knowledge
Details, such as
the speed of rise of global sea level and of temperature,
the regional and local manifestations, and
the co-effect of different “drivers” (say, Greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use change incl. urban effect)
are still subject to scientific inquiry
Some science is settled, in particular that on the fundamental mechanisms of anthropogenic climate change.
Many other aspects are not settled.

8. The communication challenge

9. Two different construction of „climate change“– scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided
Denmark temperature (Vejret, 2018)
Temperature
Lund and Stockholm
Storms 9

12. E. Huntington 1876–1947 of Yale University
Map of „mental energy“ conditioned by climatic conditions
Distribution of civilizations in 1916, according to
expert opinions.
E. Huntington 1876–1947 of Yale University

13. Knowledge market
The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“.
The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated.
Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”.
Climate science is taking place under post-normal conditions. The label “scientific” is a political tool.
The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition.
Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth) advocates to the public has lead to fatigue.
Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public trust. 13

14. Climate Change: Constructions
Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. (“Constructed” does not mean "made up" or "invented“, but built from evidence, in consistency with other explanations and theories. )
One construction is scientific, i.e., an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories.
Other constructions are cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media.
Climate science operates in a post-normal conditions (where interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity)
Postnormal conditions
(Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier)
State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent.
von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12,

15. One tool: regional climate services
Regional climate service is different from national climate service, as it is dealing with specific users responsible for management planning and decisions in policies and economics. It is developed in direct exchange with people, their questions and their knowledge claims. Regional climate service develops and tests formats and concepts, which may be used in national climate service.
This makes regional climate service different from national climate service, which is mostly dealing with the provision of information about ongoing and possible future climate change (scenarios) at the national, sectorial and international level.
Using our own experience with the 12-year experience in setting up and running the “Norddeutsches Klima- und Küstenbüro”, headed by Insa Meinke.

16. Regional climate service
An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders with regional concerns
that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders
that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits.
Provision of stakeholders with relevant knowledge, information and data about regional climate change, its perspectives and probable causes
Recognition and analysis of
post-normal situation (politicization of issues)
alternative knowledge claims,
other drivers also changing environmental conditions

17. User groups and main activities
Long-term stakeholder dialogue:
Direct inquiries,
Talks & discussions
Workshops and interviews
Development of various communication formats:
Regional assessments of climate change in Northern Germany
Understandable statements and summaries of coastal climate issues in national language
Web tools on coastal climate change and impacts
User groups of the Northern German coastal and climate office (N=2064, January 2018) /

18. Regional climate service
von Storch, H., I. Meinke, N. Stehr, B. Ratter, W. Krauss, R.A. Pielke jr., R. Grundmann, M. Reckermann and R. Weisse, 2011: Regional Climate Services illustrated with experiences from Northern Europe. Journal for Environmental Law and Policy 1/2011, 1-15
von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1 (2), 78
Regional climate service
Analysis of cultural construct, including common exaggeration in the media.
Determination of response options on the local and regional scale: mainly adaptation but also regional and local mitigation.
Dialogue of stakeholders and climate knowledge brokers in „Klimabureaus“.
2. Analysis of consensus on relevant issues (climate consensus reports).
3. Description of recent and present changes.
4 Projection of possible future changes, which are dynamically consistent and possible („scenarios“)

19. Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented - documentation of contested issues. for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008, BACC 2 done in Hamburg region #1 done in #2 done in North Sea (NOSCCA ) - done in all books available are open-access, by Springer Verlag
Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U.,

20. IPCC presents and assesses the knowledge about climate change and climate impact on the global and all large regions (such as Europe).
BACC and NOSCCA are small cousins of IPCC doing something similar but only for the Baltic Sea / North Sea region.
The two concepts are broadly similar, but deviate in some significant ways, in particular the non-involvement of governments by BACC and by NOSCCA.

21. BACC as „regional IPCC“
BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin - BACC
An effort to establish which scientifically legitimized knowledge about climate change and its impacts is available for the Baltic Sea catchment.
Approximately 80 scientists from 12 countries have documented and assessed the published knowledge in 2008 in BACC 1; In May 2015, BACC-2 came out, with 141 contributing authors.
The assessment has been accepted by the intergovern- mental HELCOM commission as a basis for its judgment and recommendations.
45 min‘s

22. Principles
The assessment is a synthesis of material drawn comprehensively from the available scientifically legitimate literature (e.g. peer reviewed literature, conference proceedings, reports of scientific institutes).
Influence or funding from groups with a political, economical or ideological agenda is not allowed; however, questions from such groups are welcome.
If a consensus view cannot be found in the above defined literature, this is clearly stated and the differing views are documented. The assessment thus encompasses the knowledge about what scientists agree on but also identify cases of disagreement or knowledge gaps.
The assessment is evaluated by independent scientific reviewers.
Assessors retire from the task after a report is completed.

23. Summary of BACC-2 (2015) New assessment finds results of BACC I valid
Significant detail and additional material has been found and assessed. Some contested issues have been reconciled (e.g. sea surface temperature trends)
Ability to run multi-model ensembles seems a major addition; first signs of detection studies, but attribution still weak
Regional climate models still suffer from partly severe biases; the effect of certain drivers (aerosols, land use change) on regional climate statistics cannot be described by these models.
Data homogeneity is still a problem and sometimes not taken seriously enough
The issue of multiple drivers on ecosystems and socio-economy is recognized, but more efforts to deal with are needed
In many cases, the relative importance of different drivers, not only climate change, needs to be evaluated.

24. Summary of BACC-2 (2015)
Estimates of future deposition and fluxes of substances like sulphur , nitrogen oxides, and carbondioxide depend on future emissions. Atmospheric factors are less important than emission changes.
In the narrow coastal zone plant and animal communities have to adapt to changing climate and to land uplift.
Climate change is a compounding factor for freshwater biogeochemistry. The effect of climate change cannot be quantified yet on a Baltic Basin wide-scale.
Scenario simulations suggest that most probably the Baltic Sea will become more acid in the future.
Increased oxygen deficiency, increased temperature, changed salinity and increased acidification will impact the marine ecosystem in several ways and may erode the resilience of the ecosystem.
Increasing need for adaptive management strategies (forestry, agriculture, urban complexes) in the Baltic Sea Basin that deal with both climate change but also emissions of nutrients, aerosols, carbondioxide and other substances.

25. Significant knowledge gaps
The issue of multiple climate change drivers (aerosols, land-user, urbanization)
The issue of multiple pressures on ecosystems and economy (eutrophication and related algae blooms, climate change, pollution, but also shipping and off-shore wind power and other off-shore activities, tourism, natural conservation and agriculture, fisheries and pollution)
Detection of non-natural regional change of climate and climate impact; attribution of such changes to drivers.

26. Knowledge Gaps: different drivers for regional change
Observed CRU, EOBS ( )
Projected GS signal, A1B scenario
10 simulations (ENSEMBLES)
Observed and projected temperature trends ( ) The observed trends are beyond the range of natural variability. In DJA and MAM the change may be explained with GHG alone; in JJA and SON other causes are also needed.
Barkhordarian, A., H. von Storch, E. Zorita, and J. Gómez-Navarro, 2016: An attempt to deconstruct recent climate change in the Baltic Sea Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 121, doi: / 2015JD024648
Red bars – natural variability – for detection of a non-natural cause
Black bar – uncertainty of scenarios – for consistency of recent trend with cause described in scenarios

27. Tools for regional climate servicing homogeneous data sets of past and future change
The CoastDat data set:
Model generated data sets
Long (>60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe
Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions.
extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, Bo Hai, Yellow Sea, Lena catchment
Clients:
Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic
Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy)
General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change
Presently, an update, named CoastDat -3 is in preparation, as a joint effort of HZG, BSH and DWD
Responsible scientist : Ralf
The service was first offered in 2004; web-page runs since, at least, 2007.

28. Some applications of Ship design Navigational safety Offshore wind
Interpretation of measurements
Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution
Ocean energy
Scenarios of storm surge conditions
Scenarios of future wave conditions
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
Currents Power [W/m2] 28

29. Tools for regional climate servicing: “Klimaatlas”
Expectations of regional climate change based on an ensemble of´regional simulations based on different emission scenarios and different regional models.
Responsible scientist: Ina
First on-line by Norddeutsches Klimabüro in 2009 – for Northern Germany.
Later, by several Helmholtz Centers, a joint effort for all of Germany.
Even later, adaptation by German weather Service,.

30. Tools for regional climate servicing: “Klimamonitor”
Climate state in Northern Germany (e.g )
Recent climate change in Northern Germany
Consistency of recent climate change with expectations given by scenarios
runs since 2014

31. Take home: The issue is - knowledge
Knowledge about ongoing and expected future climate change and impact is a necessary input for dealing with such phenomena.
Making claims abut climate change and climate impact , and demanding societal conclusions about how to deal with the issue, is a political act. It is a matter of power.
Therefore quality control measures are needed when „science“ presents scientific knowledge.
This should be done by the community, not by self-declared „best“ scientists, or by persons favored by media and politics.
For global issues, the IPCC does a god job in assessing the available knowledge
Regional bodies have done similar assessments – for instance BACC and NOSCCA. The format provides some measures to ensure independent, community-based assessment of consensus and dissensus. The process recognizes that science is a social process with scientists as actors.

32. Regional climate service as mechanism for interacting with public and stakeholders
Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public and stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue.
Climate service must take into account competing alternative knowledge claims.
Climate Service should adhere to the principle of sustainability – building trust by avoiding overselling and being explicit in spelling out contested issues.
Climate Service is more than providing data to mostly anonymous clients; direct interaction is in many cases needed.
Also precise language should be used, no more “the science is settled”, no cavalier usage of the term “predictions”, when “projections” are meant.
Climate Service will face different challenges in different countries.

33. For further reading
von Storch, H., 2014: Klimaservice: Nachhaltig "Vorhersagen"? Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 31-32/2014, 41-46
Krauss, W., and H., von Storch, 2012: Post-Normal Practices Between Regional Climate Services and Local Knowledge. nature and culture 7:
Ratter, B., K. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Env. Sci. Pol. 18, 3-8
von Storch, H., I. Meinke, N. Stehr, B. Ratter, W. Krauss, R.A. Pielke jr., R. Grundmann, M. Reckermann and R. Weisse, 2011: Regional Climate Services illustrated with experiences from Northern Europe. J. Env. Law Pol. 1/2011, 1-15
Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350
von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Sci. Pol. 12,
von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1, 78