1. by Associate Professor Atanas Gotchev, Ph. D.
The Informal Economy in the EU Accession Countries: Size, Scope, Trends and Challenges to the Process of EU Enlargement Risk Reporting and Early Warning for Good Governance and Against Corruption
by Associate Professor Atanas Gotchev, Ph. D.
UNDP–Sofia and University of National and World Economy, Bulgaria

2. Essence of Early Warning
Activity for notifying decision-makers of possible crisis, which includes:
Risk assessment
Development of strategic responses
Suggestion of policy options

3. For What Purposes Do You Use the Early Warning Report

4. How useful is this publication to your work?

5. Share of Policy Options in the Predictions made by EWR

6. Policy Impact of Signals and Recommendations in Terms of Policy Actions

7. Impediments to EW as a Policy Making Tool
Ability to “hear” the EW signal
Ability to attend to the EW signal
Ability to respond to EW signal
The presentation of the EW signal

8. Ability to Hear the EW Signal
Institutional culture
Information overflow and expertise
Ruling elites may lack political will to “hear” warning signals and take early action

9. Ability to Attend and Respond to the EW Signal
Human and financial resources may not be sufficient for adequate reaction
Existing policy frameworks determine the policy action that follows alert signals

10. The Presentation of the EW Signal
Effective EW requires identification of priorities for prevention action
Initial signals are unusually “weak” and may be drowned or dismissed
EW should identify the “highest” near-term threat
EW should suggest only realistic recommendations for policy actions
EW should match the capacity of end-users to recognize the presented risks

11. The Presentation of the EW (Publicity)
Higher publicity could increase the pressure for early action
Early warnings touch upon sensitive issues and publicity may impede the dialogue between early warners and decision-makers
EW should become public only after decision-makers are aware of them

12. Future Directions
The state of the art of early warning should be constantly improved
NGOs or IOs based early warning systems should develop better liaison with state agencies
Donor governments and international organizations should engage more actively the NGO sector in early warning activities