1. Crop Market Outlook Integrated Crop Management Conference Ames, Iowa
Dec. 2, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
169.3
1.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,654 99
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
Imports
160 36 32 30
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,415
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,315
5,300 25
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,209
5,175
-75
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,380
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,800
-50
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,655
-100
Ending Stocks
1,760
199
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
-0.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
83.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.3
1.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,981 93
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,203 94
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,890 10
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
133 3
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,715 40
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,738 53
Ending Stocks
465
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.90
-0.25
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

14. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

18. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

19. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

20. Current Corn Futures
3.74
3.48
Source: CME Group, 11/30/2015

21. Current Soybean Futures
8.57
8.36
Source: CME Group, 11/30/2015

22. 2015/16 Crop Margins

23. 2016/17 Crop Margins

24. Complete ISU Survey to Win One of Ten $50 HomeDepot Giftcards
Dear Friend, Dr. Wendong Zhang, an extension economist at Iowa State University, is conducting research to understand how farmers make and potentially adjust nutrient management decisions under current low-profit-margin scenarios. In particular, we encourage your participation in an online farmer survey regarding your N and P applications under current and alternative input/output price scenarios. This study has been approved by ISU Institutional Review Board and is supported by ISU Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). Your participation is voluntary and your responses will be confidential. Please write down your below if you would like to participate the survey, and you will be entered in a lottery to win one of ten $50 HomeDepot giftcards to show our appreciation. Your _____________________________________________________________ Thank you! Wendong Zhang, Assistant Professor and Extension Economist Iowa State University ( ,

25. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

26. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

27. Thoughts for 2016 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Feed and ethanol markets have alternatives (sorghum, wheat)
Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows
Will El Niño last through our next crop cycle?
Negative margins for crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(11/30/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.65
$3.48
$3.74
Soybeans
$10.10
$8.90
$8.36
$8.57

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: