1. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Workshop on energy-related national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions WG2 of the EU GHG Monitoring Mechanism Committee February, Brussels Summary report
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

2. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Participants
Participating MS:14, Spain missing
Presentations by 12 MS (Greece, Luxembourg, Spain missing; Greece made available information)
EEA/ETC presentations
NTUA (DG TREN) presentation on Energy Outlook 2030
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

3. Results sub-group on Policies and Measures (1)
Use standard format table for reporting policies and measures - UNFCCC (avoid double-counting)
Recommended changes (add columns): CCPM (y/n); indicate how policy is to be monitored; indicate whether individual P&M or part of a package (2010 as a minimum)
Improve reporting on CCPMs
Improve detail in EU-wide evaluation of CCPMs
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

4. Results sub-group on Policies and Measures (2)
Recommended to adopt indicators for additional (ex-ante) policy analysis, linked with those already proposed (ex-post), further discussion in WG2
Share Good Practice in evaluation of policies and measures - agreed this is useful, e.g. a manual could be developed (further discussion in WG2)
Not possible (at this stage) to develop a standard evaluation methodology
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

5. Results sub-group on Projections (1)
Continue to use the agreed names for projections
‘With additional measures’ projections should show the aggregated effect of planned policies and measures including Kyoto mechanisms
Clearly state which policies and measures are included and which cut-off date was used
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

6. Results sub-group on Projections (2)
Each country should present a central, low emission, high emission scenario that takes into account the variables that are most sensitive in the respective country (sensitivity analysis)
Enhance exchange of information between neighbouring countries on projections for electricity and gas trade (and other key elements of energy projections)
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

7. Results sub-group on Projections (3)
Agreement on the need for a consistent sectoral disaggregation for emission projections
Proposal to consider a modified energy sector table from the IPCC-CRF
Small group of experts to develop a proposal within WG2 under the Monitoring Mechanism
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

8. Results sub-group on Projections (4)
Agreement on the need to report information on projected energy balances and to report separately projected process emissions (steel and cement)
Example of important element of energy balances is import –export of electricity and gas
Small group of experts to develop a proposal within WG2 under the Monitoring Mechanism
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

9. Results sub-group on Projections (5)
List of assumptions and key parameters that should be reported as a minimum:
GDP growth (sensitivity analysis)
Population
World oil, coal and gas prices (sensitivity analysis, need to show sources of information)
Domestic electricity prices (could be model output, not assumption)
Need for harmonized energy prices?
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

10. Results sub-group on Projections (6)
Suggested assumptions to be reported:
Industry production in value added/physical units
Sectoral structure (energy intensive- non energy intensive)
Assumptions on outdoor temperatures
Energy use for space heating
Growth of electric appliances
CHP growth
Household size/numbers
Vehicle kilometres per vehicle type
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

11. Workshop recommendations (1)
Small working group of projections experts (within WG2) will:
1. develop a proposal for a sectoral breakdown for reporting on projections based on IPCC CRF sectoral categories;
2. develop a proposal for reporting of projected energy balances.
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

12. Workshop recommendations (2)
WG2 will further discuss:
Development of a paper on sensitivity analysis and robustness of projections
List of assumptions/key parameters to be reported
Development of a good practice manual on evaluation of PAMs
Indicators for additional (ex-ante) policy analysis, linked with those already proposed (ex-post analysis)
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2

13. Workshop recommendations (3)
Proposal for the creation of a Projections Experts Communication Network for agreed. The network should work informal.
All results of the workshop will be made available by EEA-ETC/ACC and should guide MS in preparing their next reports under the MM.
A workshop on ‘How much progress has been achieved’ will take place one year later (early 2003).
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2